My World War III alliances prediction

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
DaKardii
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

My World War III alliances prediction

Post by DaKardii »

Okay. So I'm gonna try to predict the alliances of World War III, based on Generational Dynamics. I can't post the image directly, so here's a link to it on ImgBB.

Allies are in blue, Axis in black.

https://ibb.co/qRhWHV8


Image

DaKardii
Posts: 46
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: My World War III alliances prediction

Post by DaKardii »

So here's my rationale for this map.

THE MIDDLE EAST
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and their allies are in the Axis camp. Iran and its allies are in the Allies camp. I actually believe that in the early stages of the war, Saudi Arabia will be in the Allies camp and Iran in the Axis camp, but both will switch sides later on. As the conflict escalates, the alignment will change from Monarchies vs. Islamists to Sunnis vs. Shiites.

Israel is in the Allies camp because although it's anti-Iran, it's also too dependent on the US to defect to the Axis once Iran defects to the Allies. Palestine is in the Axis camp because it's anti-Israel.

Egypt is in the Allies camp because of Sisi's opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. Cyprus is in the Allies camp because of its historically bad relations with Turkey.

EUROPE
In case you're wondering why the Baltic states, the former Czechoslovakia, and most of Western Europe are all in the Axis camp, it's because I believe that a war between the US and Turkey -- both members of NATO -- will cause a massive surge in anti-American sentiment in Europe. Many Europeans will see the US as an imperialist aggressor seeking to turn its treaty allies into vassals at all costs, much like the USSR did during its invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia. They will want to move in a different direction, where their foreign policy is determined by Europeans rather than by the US. I looked at a recent Eurobarometer poll which asked respondents if they preferred that their country pursue its own foreign policy or a collective European foreign policy. Every country where more respondents preferred a collective European foreign policy, I put in the Axis camp. I believe that those countries will side with the Axis out of a desire to "declare independence from the American Empire."

As for the Balkans, it's divided on Muslim vs. non-Muslim lines. So basically its Turkey, Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo vs. everybody else.

As for the rest of Europe, the UK is in the Allies camp because of both its close ties to the US and its opposition to the idea of a United Europe, especially one that includes Ireland. Norway and Iceland are in the Allies camp for similar reasons. Ukraine, Finland, Georgia, and Moldova are in the Axis camp because of their poor relations with Russia. Azerbaijan is in the Axis camp because it's allies with Turkey. Belarus and Armenia are in the Allies camp because they are allies with Russia (who of course is in the Allies camp). Armenia is also arch enemies with Azerbaijan, so it would've joined the Allies even without its alliance with Russia. Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and the Holy See are neutral because they have no reason to get involved. Monaco is in the Allies camp because of its historically bad relations with France. Andorra is in the Axis camp because it's a puppet state of both France and Spain. San Marino is in the Axis camp because of its close cultural ties to Italy. Sweden is grayed out because it could go either way.

ASIA AND OCEANIA
Central Asia is generally divided on pro-Russia vs. anti-Russia lines. Pro-Russian countries are in the Allied camp; anti-Russian countries in the Axis camp. Pakistan is in the Axis camp because of its close ties to China and its arch-rivalry with India. Afghanistan is in the Allies camp because of its historically bad relations with Pakistan.

Every remaining country in Asia except China, Cambodia, Laos, North Korea, Maldives, and East Timor are in the Allied camp. Cambodia and Laos are in the Axis camp because they have close ties with China and have had historically bad relations with Vietnam. North Korea is in the Axis camp because it's a puppet state of China. Maldives and East Timor are in the Axis camp because they have had historically bad relations with India and Indonesia, respectively.

Every country in Oceania is in the Allies camp.

AMERICAS
Canada is in the Allies camp because of its close ties to the US.

Every country that is a member of the Rio Pact is in the Allied camp.

Venezuela is in the Axis camp because Juan Guaido's government re-ratified the Rio Pact treaty, a move that Nicolas Maduro does not recognize. When Guaido decides to go to war with China, Maduro will try to stop him. And then what? Cuba and Nicaragua are in the Axis camp out of solidarity for Venezuela. Ecuador and Bolivia are in the Allies camp out of solidarity for Guaido. Uruguay is in the Allies camp because it intends to rejoin the Rio Pact despite not being a member now. Mexico is in the Allies camp because the drug cartels have ties to Maduro. The English-speaking Caribbean countries are in the Allies camp out of solidarity with the UK. Suriname is in the Allies camp due to its close cultural ties to India.

AFRICA
Africa is by far the hardest continent to predict, IMO. Libya, Somalia, and Djibouti are grayed out because they could go either way. Sudan is in the Allied camp because the new regime is opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, which backed Omar al-Bashir. South Sudan is in the Axis camp because of its poor relations with Sudan. Morocco and Tunisia are in the Axis camp out of solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood. Algeria is in the Allies camp because of its close ties with Iran and its historically bad relations with both France and Morocco. Western Sahara is in the Allies camp because its archenemies with Morocco. Eritrea is in the Allies camp because of its ties to the Houthis, which are allies with Iran. Ethiopia is in the Axis camp because of its historically bad relations with Eritrea.

The rest of Africa I have no clue on.

Guest

Re: My World War III alliances prediction

Post by Guest »

As for the Balkans, it's divided on Muslim vs. non-Muslim lines. So basically its Turkey, Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo vs. everybody else.
-- :roll:

The Bosnia Muslims and Albanians (who are Orthodox Christian, Catholic, and both Sunni and Shia Muslim) are the most pro-American people in Europe. It's Serbia that is pro-Russian and pro-Chinese. The Chinese have a much larger presence than even the Russians. Serbia is deeply anti-American and even anti-Western, so that blows a huge whole in your argument already. Almost half of the Albanians are Christian. Religion is nominal in the Balkans. You have also grossly underestimated how secularized both Bosnian Muslims and Albanians are.

I see wholes everywhere in your analysis, but that is because I have lived in many of the countries you write about.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests