by Phong Tran » Sat Apr 19, 2025 3:25 pm
China definitely has internal societal problems as Trevor and Navigator have pointed out. Whether those issues could be the catalyst that allow the CCP to enforce martial law and to attack Taiwan, or at least create a naval blockade around the country, I'm still not sure. If they were to attempt a naval blockade, the advantage would be that it's at least much closer to their military sphere of influence and would require less naval capacity and force, however, if that military demonstration were to be quickly defeated by the US/Coalition Naval forces, the CCP would never live it down. An external humiliation such as that would almost surely result in an internal revolution and CCP downfall.
It's easy to criticize their one-child policy based on the negative resulting consequences, especially female infanticide, however there were positive factors that actually contributed to China's economic development and growth during it's incredible GDP rise from 1980 to the early 2010's. It is estimated that it reduced births during those years by approximately 400 million. Those births would have slowed China's economic growth as more agricultural imports would have been required to support that population growth. As well, looking at their youth unemployment and surging unemployment today due to the trade war, it could be argued that had they not enforced the one-child policy, they would have been in an even worse internal situation by early 2010s. At least the extra 10-15 years has allowed them to move a greater population out of poverty while increasing their middle class population. The problem was that they ultimately relied too much on manufacturing and construction for their economic growth.
The weakness of the CCP, just like most political communist governments is that they unfortunately don't realize when they should let go of their control. The key reason why their economic innovation and structures to develop internal consumerism are absent is because no one trusts that the CCP would not just confiscate anything and everything they have if they wanted to. Thus, capital does not stay to help build a middle class feedback loop; it instead flees for self-preservation, thus, the housing bubbles in places like Australia, Canada, US, etc, the cross-border escape and growth in cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), Gold, etc.
Circling back to the trade war, and the US and China's struggle for dominance, I believe the US made a miscalculation. I believe their intention was to reiterate to the world that they were and still are the only superpower in the world; that if you want access to the latest technological advancements and best manufactured products, then you should be willing to pay for it. But in doing it the way they did, instead of reinforcing their identity and US Dollar as the reserve currency, they actually did more harm than good. Not to say that the reserve status will crumble tomorrow or next year or even in 10 years, but the seeds have been planted for the US Dollar to be replaced; by what, who's to say. One of the requirements for a reserve currency is that the currency has to be readily available for trade, and the US has basically told the world that they will be reducing the amount of US currency availability for global trade. I know John has always said that there will be a global deflationary depression, and that would make sense if no there was no longer a true reserve currency that anyone would use except gold or bitcoin. Good currencies always chase out bad and once hoarding starts, countries will only purchase what they need and keep the rest.
China definitely has internal societal problems as Trevor and Navigator have pointed out. Whether those issues could be the catalyst that allow the CCP to enforce martial law and to attack Taiwan, or at least create a naval blockade around the country, I'm still not sure. If they were to attempt a naval blockade, the advantage would be that it's at least much closer to their military sphere of influence and would require less naval capacity and force, however, if that military demonstration were to be quickly defeated by the US/Coalition Naval forces, the CCP would never live it down. An external humiliation such as that would almost surely result in an internal revolution and CCP downfall.
It's easy to criticize their one-child policy based on the negative resulting consequences, especially female infanticide, however there were positive factors that actually contributed to China's economic development and growth during it's incredible GDP rise from 1980 to the early 2010's. It is estimated that it reduced births during those years by approximately 400 million. Those births would have slowed China's economic growth as more agricultural imports would have been required to support that population growth. As well, looking at their youth unemployment and surging unemployment today due to the trade war, it could be argued that had they not enforced the one-child policy, they would have been in an even worse internal situation by early 2010s. At least the extra 10-15 years has allowed them to move a greater population out of poverty while increasing their middle class population. The problem was that they ultimately relied too much on manufacturing and construction for their economic growth.
The weakness of the CCP, just like most political communist governments is that they unfortunately don't realize when they should let go of their control. The key reason why their economic innovation and structures to develop internal consumerism are absent is because no one trusts that the CCP would not just confiscate anything and everything they have if they wanted to. Thus, capital does not stay to help build a middle class feedback loop; it instead flees for self-preservation, thus, the housing bubbles in places like Australia, Canada, US, etc, the cross-border escape and growth in cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), Gold, etc.
Circling back to the trade war, and the US and China's struggle for dominance, I believe the US made a miscalculation. I believe their intention was to reiterate to the world that they were and still are the only superpower in the world; that if you want access to the latest technological advancements and best manufactured products, then you should be willing to pay for it. But in doing it the way they did, instead of reinforcing their identity and US Dollar as the reserve currency, they actually did more harm than good. Not to say that the reserve status will crumble tomorrow or next year or even in 10 years, but the seeds have been planted for the US Dollar to be replaced; by what, who's to say. One of the requirements for a reserve currency is that the currency has to be readily available for trade, and the US has basically told the world that they will be reducing the amount of US currency availability for global trade. I know John has always said that there will be a global deflationary depression, and that would make sense if no there was no longer a true reserve currency that anyone would use except gold or bitcoin. Good currencies always chase out bad and once hoarding starts, countries will only purchase what they need and keep the rest.