Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote="JR_in_Mass"]From today's posting;
[quote][F]rom the point of view of Generation Dynamics, a new civil war [in Nigeria] is impossible at this time, since only two generations have passed since the crisis civil war of the the late 1960s.[/quote]

I wonder if the 70+-year generational cycle holds as firmly in a country with short life expectancy and fast population growth, especially in a modernizing phase when the abilities of elders are less relevant than usual. Looks to me like we're well into the third generation since the start of the Biafran war (1967-82, 1983-1999, 2000-2017) and, more important, that the generations that experienced the war are fading fast. President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Mohammed Namadi Sambo were born in 1957 and 1954 respectively so they should be stabilizers.

Nigeria:
Life expectancy - 1970 42 years, 2009 51 years
Women married by age 15 - 2000 34 percent, 2005 18 percent
Population - 1970 57 million, 2010 158 million
Nigerians alive today born before 1962 - about 6.5 percent, or about 10 million

(from World Bank and Nigerianstat websites)[/quote]

Life expectancy has more to do with child mortality than anything
else. Even with a low life expectancy, a significant number of people
live to old age, and so the same generational timelines apply.

John

From today's posting;
[quote][F]rom the point of view of Generation Dynamics, a new civil war [in Nigeria] is impossible at this time, since only two generations have passed since the crisis civil war of the the late 1960s.[/quote]

I wonder if the 70+-year generational cycle holds as firmly in a country with short life expectancy and fast population growth, especially in a modernizing phase when the abilities of elders are less relevant than usual. Looks to me like we're well into the third generation since the start of the Biafran war (1967-82, 1983-1999, 2000-2017) and, more important, that the generations that experienced the war are fading fast. President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Mohammed Namadi Sambo were born in 1957 and 1954 respectively so they should be stabilizers.

Nigeria:
Life expectancy - 1970 42 years, 2009 51 years
Women married by age 15 - 2000 34 percent, 2005 18 percent
Population - 1970 57 million, 2010 158 million
Nigerians alive today born before 1962 - about 6.5 percent, or about 10 million

(from World Bank and Nigerianstat websites)

Well, since we're resuming drone strikes, that will likely heighten the tension between us and Pakistan, not that our relationship was especially friendly anyway. I wonder what's holding full-scale civil war back; many of the Pashtuns seem to be willing to launch, although I'm not sure about the others.

With Syria, I think this foreshadows a civil war 25-30 years down the line, absent some unexpected change that allows the younger generation to win this conflict.

12-Jan-12 World View -- French journalist killed in Syria during visit to Homs

Pakistan in governmental crisis as 'Memogate' scandal continues


[i][url=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e120112#e120112]** 12-Jan-12 World View -- French journalist killed in Syria during visit to Homs[/url]
** [url]http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e120112#e120112[/url][/i]


Contents:
Pakistan in governmental crisis as 'Memogate' scandal continues
American drone strikes resume in Pakistan
French journalist killed in Syria during visit to Homs
Arab League observer calls Syria mission a 'farce'
Hillary Clinton condemns Assad's 'chillingly cynical' speech in Syria
U.S. denies any role in the assassination of Iran's nuclear scientist
Mosque attacked in Nigeria's south in Benin City


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Memogate, Yousaf Raza Gilani,
Naeem Khalid Lodhi, Inter-Services Intelligence,
Asif Ali Zardari, Husain Haqqani, American drones,
Gilles Jacquier, France, Syria, Alawites, Anwar Malek,
Arab League, Homs, Deraa, Hillary Clinton, Bashar al-Assad,
Iran, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, Israel, Nigeria, Benin City,
Wole Soyinka, Boko Haram