by Reality Check » Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:07 pm
I believe an attack by Israel on Iran in the next few weeks, is more likely, than not, for many reasons:
1. The Israeli government has been preparing their own people for war and, as you noted, Israeli civilians are scared.
2. Canada, pulled it's embassy and it's diplomats out of Iran in the past couple of weeks. Now Great Britain and Canada have no diplomats in Iran and are free to join in if Iran tries to retaliate by closing international water ways.
3. This massive naval exercise, at the same time as Obama refuses to set deadlines for Iran, means it is now or never for Israel to attack. Obama has called Israel's bluff, Obama refused to even meet with the Prime Minister of Israel, and it is very probable Israel was not bluffing. Obama appears to be heading for re-election at this point in time. Obama as President and Iran with Nuclear weapons may scare the leaders of Israel more than the results of starting a war of choice with Iran right now.
4. Sunni Muslim Arab leaders are distracted by power struggles between Islamists and Monarchists and Secularists within some countries and between different Islamist political parties ( and their militias ) in other countries.
Iran is in a lose, lose situation, if Israel attacks now. Iran will be forced to counter attack, but how and against who is the problem. Any attack on U.S. Interests, including the interests of Sunni Gulf states, anywhere in the world will bring a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Worlds only Naval superpower who happens to have it's navy parked right next to Iran at that moment.
Failure by Iran to attack U.S. interests any where will make Iran look weak, after Iran has threatened the U.S. so publicly.
Iran will be forced to ask Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Hamas may refuse, after all Hamas is Sunni and they now have the backing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Hezbollah, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip ( if Hamas elects to commit suicide ) will not recover from the war for decades, if ever. Hezbollah's enemies in Lebanon will attempt to finish off what ever is left of Hezbollah after Israel has done it's damage.
Iran's ally in Syria will be finished off by Sunni Muslims while Iran is distracted in Iran, the Persian Gulf and Lebanon.
Iran will survive, but Iran will be weaker, with most of it's military infrastructure in shambles and with fewer allies and more enemies.
The big winner will be the Sunni Muslim countries. They will win Syria ( or at least most of it ) and increase their influence in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.
Iraq will replace Syria as the site of an ongoing proxy war between Sunni controlled Arab countries and Shia Iran.
Israel will pay a price and buy a few more years as the only country in the Mid-East with nuclear weapons. Israel will have more Sunni Muslim enemies as neighbors and the Demographics, Geography and Economics will still get worse for Israel every year. Peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt maybe destroyed, if attacks by Isreal on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip are part of this "war of choice" by Israel.
Obama may win re-election, or lose re-election, based on how such a war of choice by Israel plays out.
I believe an attack by Israel on Iran in the next few weeks, is more likely, than not, for many reasons:
1. The Israeli government has been preparing their own people for war and, as you noted, Israeli civilians are scared.
2. Canada, pulled it's embassy and it's diplomats out of Iran in the past couple of weeks. Now Great Britain and Canada have no diplomats in Iran and are free to join in if Iran tries to retaliate by closing international water ways.
3. This massive naval exercise, at the same time as Obama refuses to set deadlines for Iran, means it is now or never for Israel to attack. Obama has called Israel's bluff, Obama refused to even meet with the Prime Minister of Israel, and it is very probable Israel was not bluffing. Obama appears to be heading for re-election at this point in time. Obama as President and Iran with Nuclear weapons may scare the leaders of Israel more than the results of starting a war of choice with Iran right now.
4. Sunni Muslim Arab leaders are distracted by power struggles between Islamists and Monarchists and Secularists within some countries and between different Islamist political parties ( and their militias ) in other countries.
Iran is in a lose, lose situation, if Israel attacks now. Iran will be forced to counter attack, but how and against who is the problem. Any attack on U.S. Interests, including the interests of Sunni Gulf states, anywhere in the world will bring a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Worlds only Naval superpower who happens to have it's navy parked right next to Iran at that moment.
Failure by Iran to attack U.S. interests any where will make Iran look weak, after Iran has threatened the U.S. so publicly.
Iran will be forced to ask Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Hamas may refuse, after all Hamas is Sunni and they now have the backing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Hezbollah, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip ( if Hamas elects to commit suicide ) will not recover from the war for decades, if ever. Hezbollah's enemies in Lebanon will attempt to finish off what ever is left of Hezbollah after Israel has done it's damage.
Iran's ally in Syria will be finished off by Sunni Muslims while Iran is distracted in Iran, the Persian Gulf and Lebanon.
Iran will survive, but Iran will be weaker, with most of it's military infrastructure in shambles and with fewer allies and more enemies.
The big winner will be the Sunni Muslim countries. They will win Syria ( or at least most of it ) and increase their influence in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.
Iraq will replace Syria as the site of an ongoing proxy war between Sunni controlled Arab countries and Shia Iran.
Israel will pay a price and buy a few more years as the only country in the Mid-East with nuclear weapons. Israel will have more Sunni Muslim enemies as neighbors and the Demographics, Geography and Economics will still get worse for Israel every year. Peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt maybe destroyed, if attacks by Isreal on Lebanon and the Gaza Strip are part of this "war of choice" by Israel.
Obama may win re-election, or lose re-election, based on how such a war of choice by Israel plays out.