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I would expect a war to start out slowly, with China believing that they could win a quick war against us by taking Taiwan and waiting for us to head to the negotiation table. Japan had a similar mentality when they attacked us: they never imagined that we would have the will to fight a difficult war. As things stand, virtually all of our enemies believe that we are a "paper tiger" and unwilling to fight, especially since we are leaving Afghanistan soon.

These folks have claimed responsibility for rattling my roof yesterday morning.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/us-iraq-violence-idUSBRE82J06U20120320

Al Qaeda's Iraq wing and allied Sunni Muslim insurgent groups say that despite the withdrawal of U.S. forces they will not lay down arms and will continue to battle the Shi'ite-led government.

They have claimed responsibility for nearly all the major attacks so far this year, mounting days of coordinated bombings across the country about once a month since the Americans left.

[quote="OLD1953"]It does make one wonder though, will WWIII be a proxy war in all aspects?[/quote]

That's an intriguing question, OLD. If/when there is a WWIII breaking out, I tend to think that inexorable forces will draw the USA and China into some sort of direct conflict with each other, to which the potential consequences are, of course, scary. However, maybe it isn't out of the question to potentially have "under-the-table gentlemen's agreements" between the two powers which restrict their own troops to "advisory" troops, with other countries' troops "officially" doing the fighting in places such as Pakistan and India. However, in a total-war scenario, those gentlemen's agreements could only have a chance of happening, I feel, if there are excellent anti-ballistic-missile defenses set up by the USA and its allies, along with some excellent next-generation offensive weapons developed by the USA; otherwise, I don't know if the temptation of China to lob nukes or biological weapons at the USA, especially towards the end of the war, could be bottled up. But, your points do make interesting food for thought. Thanks for sharing. —Best regards, Marc

I suppose the "China will save the world from depression" meme has finally started to break. When such a fixed idea changes, it can do so very rapidly, and results can be shocking.

As far as I'm concerned, India is welcome to Afghanistan. It does make one wonder though, will WWIII be a proxy war in all aspects? If so, what happens when the war is over, and we've got a number of very well armed former proxy states in existance. Will this lead to a different world order wherein the smaller states have much more effective military forces?

21-Mar-12 World View -- India poised to replace Nato role in Afghanistan as Nato withdraws

In Egypt, public debate over police officers' requests for permission to grow beards

[i][url=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e120321#e120321]** 21-Mar-12 World View -- India poised to replace Nato role in Afghanistan as Nato withdraws[/url]
** [url]http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e120321#e120321[/url][/i]

Contents:
Pakistan's parliamentary commission demands end to American drone strikes
India poised to replace Nato role in Afghanistan as Nato withdraws
In Egypt, public debate over police officers' requests for permission to grow beards
China's housing prices and demand for iron ore continue to fall
France in biggest manhunt in history for Toulouse killer


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, drone strikes, Nato,
India, Afghanistan, Afghan National Security Forces,
Egypt, Sharia Law, China, housing prices, Australia,
BHP Billinton, iron ore, Toulouse, France