Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote="Trevor"]I might be sympathetic to what they're going through, but getting involved may not be a good idea. The way things are now, even something small could trigger a major war (though that's going to happen anyway, sooner or later) I also don't see us intervening directly the way we did with Libya.[/quote]

Ditto again regarding my thoughts; going into Syria, as sympathetic as I am to the Syrian plight, may indeed easily spiral out of control in a way that it didn't with Libya. It could, as you're likely thinking, cause Israel to be seriously attacked, which could, of course, start a major war (although I likewise think it's just a matter of time for that to likely happen anyway). Thanks again for the on-target thoughts. —Best regards, Marc

I might be sympathetic to what they're going through, but getting involved may not be a good idea. The way things are now, even something small could trigger a major war (though that's going to happen anyway, sooner or later) I also don't see us intervening directly the way we did with Libya.

The increasing lethality of available weapons, and their increasing availability, can be a game-changer in unpredictable ways. At a minimum, one can certainly say that Syria at this time is a cesspool of war crimes and crimes against humanity. It's a most ugly scenario. —Best regards, Marc

Admittedly, John is likely correct about this, but I still consider it to be a possibility. The violence doesn't seem to be easing up in the least and unlike Iraq, you're not seeing too many casualties from terrorist attacks.

[quote="Trevor"]Perhaps, but it seems pretty horrible for an awakening era event. About the only thing they haven't done is send aircraft to bomb the protestors and that could change, which was why the possibility that this is their crisis came to mind.[/quote]

Again, I've also been thinking that what's happening in Syria seems pretty horrible for an Awakening-era event. I don't doubt what John just said in regards to some likely wavering on the battlefield among the pro-Assad Syrian troops in many instances. Yet, I am respectfully left wondering what happens if you have enough loyalists in a situation like this who don't waver too much or at all (which seems to be the present case in Syria), and who have weaponry that they mercilessly use to slaughter another ethnic or religious group, [i]and[/i] if the attacked group is also able to get its hands on potent weaponry as well (such as via sympathetic outside groups slipping it to them, or through the successful raiding of weapons caches). Maybe such a thing could cause a rare case of a First Turning reset via a civil-war–type event in an Awakening era; it is at least interesting to ponder. (However, your "Hama Massacre last-Awakening climax" theory is an interesting one, too, Trevor.) Thanks, all, for the further cogent thoughts. —Best regards, Marc

Perhaps, but it seems pretty horrible for an awakening era event. About the only thing they haven't done is send aircraft to bomb the protestors and that could change, which was why the possibility that this is their crisis came to mind.

Crisis wars come from the people. Non-crisis wars come from the
politicians. There is no way the the Syrian conflict is a crisis war.

Austin Tice at McClatchy has produced some good stuff. Here's
an article from today:

[quote]
http://www.lakewyliepilot.com/2012/06/21/1570405/some-rebels-wonder-if-syrian-troops.html

Some rebels wonder if Syrian troops’ poor use of tanks, helicopters is
intentional ...

There is no way to know whether the inept use of heavy weaponry is the
result of poor training, incompetence or intentional. Some rebels,
however, say they believe at least some of the erratic military
actions are expressions of sympathy with the rebel cause by Sunni
Muslims who are serving in the country’s armed forces.[/quote]

John

My thoughts were more along the lines of the possibility that the Hama Massacre was the awakening climax that stated that the older generation won and that this is the war resulting a generation later.

[quote="Trevor"]Based on what's going on in Syria, I'm starting to wonder if this is really their crisis after all. It seems extremely bloody for an awakening era period.[/quote]

I've actually been wondering that myself, Trevor, and as much as GD makes sense, I do wonder if, in extraordinary circumstances, if one can have a crisis civil war during an Awakening period. Rare exceptions causing it, if it can happen, would perhaps be along the lines of what we're seeing in Syria (e.g., a minority population in a country that is armed with superior weaponry, and is brutally using it to maintain dominance within the country). Thanks for the cogent thoughts. —Best regards, Marc

Based on what's going on in Syria, I'm starting to wonder if this is really their crisis after all. It seems extremely bloody for an awakening era period.

Bad economic news like the jobless reports reaching a 6-month high and some predictions that we might have job loss in the next unemployment report?