by vincecate » Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:35 pm
John wrote: The broader picture is that the plunging oil prices are part of a global deflationary spiral. I said, starting in 2003 when I first began writing about Generational Dynamics, that it was predicting deflation. Mainstream economists have been predicting high inflation and even superinflation every quarter for years, so they've been wrong every quarter and Generational Dynamics has been right.
Peter Schiff, Kyle Bass, Mish Shedlock, and I are making very good money as the Yen goes down, as we all said it would.
I, and I think others, also expected that initially as the Yen started to crash it would prop up the value of the dollar. I think there is such a rush out of the Yen and into the dollar that it is making the dollar more valuable. This won't last forever though. Eventually the value of the Yen will be so small that those trying to get out will have no impact on the dollar.
Some time later, after Yen hyperinflation, people will start to get nervous about the same thing happening to the dollar and then the dollar will go down too. This is when gold and silver do really well. I think it is less than 2 years for this to start.
In 2003 oil was $25/barrel and now it is $70 per barrel. All kinds of other prices are also much higher now. It is not really like you have been right about this deflation spiral call so far. The graph below is not a deflationary spiral graph.
- tmp.png (30.26 KiB) Viewed 6458 times
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_oil_ ... _from_2003
Also, note that "no hyperinflation this year" is really a "stopped clock prediction" that is right most of the time. But the payoff for getting the right year when betting of hyperinflation can be 100 times the bet. So even someone who was wrong 5 years in a row and then right on the 6th can easily be way ahead.
[quote="John"] The broader picture is that the plunging oil prices are part of a global deflationary spiral. I said, starting in 2003 when I first began writing about Generational Dynamics, that it was predicting deflation. Mainstream economists have been predicting high inflation and even superinflation every quarter for years, so they've been wrong every quarter and Generational Dynamics has been right. [/quote]
Peter Schiff, Kyle Bass, Mish Shedlock, and I are making very good money as the Yen goes down, as we all said it would.
I, and I think others, also expected that initially as the Yen started to crash it would prop up the value of the dollar. I think there is such a rush out of the Yen and into the dollar that it is making the dollar more valuable. This won't last forever though. Eventually the value of the Yen will be so small that those trying to get out will have no impact on the dollar.
Some time later, after Yen hyperinflation, people will start to get nervous about the same thing happening to the dollar and then the dollar will go down too. This is when gold and silver do really well. I think it is less than 2 years for this to start.
In 2003 oil was $25/barrel and now it is $70 per barrel. All kinds of other prices are also much higher now. It is not really like you have been right about this deflation spiral call so far. The graph below is not a deflationary spiral graph.
[attachment=0]tmp.png[/attachment]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_oil_market_chronology_from_2003
Also, note that "no hyperinflation this year" is really a "stopped clock prediction" that is right most of the time. But the payoff for getting the right year when betting of hyperinflation can be 100 times the bet. So even someone who was wrong 5 years in a row and then right on the 6th can easily be way ahead.