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The biggest difference that I would like to point out is that in 1979, China's military was not what anyone would call very impressive. Poorly-led, poorly-equipped, poorly-trained. Now they have a much more modern military.

The second is that at that time, Vietnam was defended by hardened veterans. After the enormous losses inflicted both by their civil war and our involvement, those who remained were good at their jobs. Most of those who weren't had been killed. They had combat experience, whereas China's army mostly did not.

There's no doubt that China would take considerable losses even so. However, they wouldn't care; we pulled back and our effort collapsed because public opinion had turned against it. It won't happen with China. In addition, they are right on their borders and will have a much easier time with logistics. Vietnam stands alone; no one is going to risk their neck trying to defend them. They have no interlocking treaties with any major powers and don't have a prayer of beating them alone. It'd be the logical choice for them, but whether China will make that choice remains to be seen.

Readers posting regarding Vietnam's ability to fend off China seem to be assuming a pitched battle that perhaps leads to other country involvement or an invasion of vietnam. That is not at all the kind of pattern of skirmishes we have been seeing. China is using its considerable resources to individually stake out strongpoints on various rocks and reefs in the South China Seas. It also uses its vast armed fishing fleets and coast guard to harry other nationalities fishing ships or oil exploration support vessels. China doesn't need to actively go to war to deny other nations economic influence in the South China Seas. It only needs to deny those other nation's access to the natural resourcese in the South China Seas while simultaneously developing and harvesting those resources itself. This adds to Chinese economic influence in the maritime region and makes it unpalatable and less likely that other nations will be able to attract economic investment to develop the disputed resources.

It is an economic attrition battle and one in which China is far more powerful in than its neighbors. It is not a head to head military battle and won't be for some time until China is very comfortable with its sureptitiously gained economic control over these maritme assets.

22-Dec-14 World View -- Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations


Reader comments say that Vietnam can defend against China

** 22-Dec-14 World View -- Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e141222



Contents:
Israel-Palestine struggle moves to the United Nations
ISIS executes 100 foreign fighters for trying to flee Syria
Reader comments say that Vietnam can defend against China


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Sisyphus, Israel, Palestine,
United Nations, Security Council, Jordan,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Mahmoud Abbas, John Kerry,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, China, South China Sea