Uber wrote:
> "It may or may not be "science" that humans caused climate change,
> but the science stops there. In particular, "science" has no idea
> what's going to happen in the future, especially with the approach
> of the Singularity, which so-called "climate change scientists"
> are scared to death to even mention, because it completely
> invalidates their theory."
> I'm not sure whether or not this comment was supposed to be
> tongue-in-cheek, but I do appreciate the wonderful irony. Future
> climate catastrophe - not science because science can't predict
> the future. Future singularity, definitely real and predictable,
> and frightening to scientists. Nice volte-face!
You make a good point that it needs to be better explained why the
Singularity is coming, but the future of climate change cannot be
predicted. In fact, there's a third probability involved, the
probability of world war.
The problem with the climate change prediction is that it's embedded
in a sewer full of ideology. Let's suppose you can be certain that
human activity causes climate change, and that human activity will
cause further climate change. There's absolutely no science that says
you can change human activity to prevent climate change, and yet
that's what these politicians claim they can do. In fact, politicians
can neither cause nor prevent human activity that causes climate
change.
The same is true of the Singularity and world war. Each of these is
coming with certainty, and there's no way for any politician to cause
or prevent either of them. So in that sense, all three predictions
are parallel.
The difference is that politicians are using one of these three --
climate change -- to extort money and political power.
The Obama administration has threatened to prosecute "climate change
deniers" criminally. There's no parallel to that for the other two.
And as I said, the "scientists" refuse to even mention the word
"Singularity," since it makes all their future predictions -- and all
their calls for more money -- worthless.
So somehow these facts all have to be sorted out into a better
explanation of what's going on.
Incidentally, attitudes towards the Singularity have changed in the
10+ years I've been writing about it. Ten years ago, almost everyone
considered it a fantasy, although many people found the 2004 movie "I
Robot" intriguing.
** (July 2004) I, Robot is science fiction, but intelligent computers will soon be science fact.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 040709.htm
But today when I talk to other software engineers, rarely does anyone
express any doubt that the singularity is coming.
I still sometimes hear the argument, "We have to understand the human
brain before computers can be intelligent, and that will take
centuries," but only from non-technical people. Software engineers
know that that argument is nonsense.
Another argument I sometimes hear is that the human brain will meld in
some way with computer intelligence. Ray Kurzweil has popularized one
version of that theory. I personally consider it to be fantasy, but
even if true it doesn't change the fact that the Singularity is
coming.
And of course, some people question the dates. My prediction is 2030,
but others come in anywhere from 2025 to 2060. At any rate, it's
pretty certain that intelligent computers will be used in warfare by
the early 2020s.
Which brings us back to the main point that the Singularity and world
war are coming with certainty, but so-called "scientists" refuse to
even discuss those concepts because they would lose money and
political power in doing so.