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Nuclear war

A question from a web site reader:

"In the predicted clash of civilizations war, the participants will be nuclear. If this is to be a genocidal crisis world war, won't there be a global exchange of thermonuclear weapons? The outcome would not be promising. If there is not to be a nuclear war, what would stop it?"

Another reader wrote,

"But let's face it, if US/EU/Japan/Russia/India/Israel all gang up on China plus Bangladesh and Pakistan, they will nuke them into the stone age in 5 minutes."

Unfortunately, nothing will stop it. I would expect every nuclear weapon in the world to be used on someone before it's all over.

I remember reading the novel On the Beach, by Nevil Shute, in the 1960s. According to the Spark notes synopsis, Albania starts an Arab-Israeli War (which is a pretty good trick, since the Albanians are neither Arab nor Jewish), which led to a Russia-NATO war, which led to a Russo-Chinese war. The story is told from the point of view of people in Australia who are waiting for the huge nuclear cloud from the Northern Hemisphere war to reach them. It'll be there within a year. They're the last people on earth, and it will kill them all. It's a "very 60s" message.

A few years ago I did some research and found that even the largest nuclear weapons have kill radiuses of about 5-10 miles -- and that includes the spread of radiation in the period after the explosion. So if there are 10,000 nuclear weapons in the world, then take a map of the world and put 10,000 very tiny little pinpoint dots on it in various places, and you'll see what effect the nuclear weapons will have.

So, nobody is going to be nuked back to the stone age in five minutes. If you put together all the deaths that will be caused by all the nuclear weapons in the world, it will probably be in the tens of millions. In 2004, based on historical demographic trends and the surging worldwide hunger problem, I estimated the about 2 billion people will be killed in the Clash of Civilizations world war. That figure still sounds about right, and it means that the overwhelming majority of the deaths will occur "the old-fashioned way," through conventional warfare.

It also means that this war will take a very long time,

"I disagree about application of nukes being highly dispersed. They are and will be targeted at wiping out urban areas which are highly concentrated."

I'm certainly no expert on military strategy in a nuclear war, but I would think that, while some nuclear weapons would target urban areas, most would target military personnel and installations.

"How long do we have?"

As you know, predicting dates is impossible, since events will unfold because of chaotic events that can't be predicted.

Keep in mind that these wars usually progress slowly at first, and gather speed as they progress. So there may be an initial ground war between two nations that grows and expands to other nations over a period of months. The first nuclear weapon may not be used for a while -- I would guess the most likely first use would be in Asia, Pakistan vs India or China vs Russia. As the months go by, nuclear weapons will be used increasingly, until everyone is throwing out everything they have. In WW II the explosive climax was the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This war will also have an explosive crisis, but I hate to imagine what it will be, and it won't occur for several years.

I guess I can't end this discussion without mentioning that there's a huge wild card that could speed things up: Once the conflict starts, many worldwide public health protocols will break down, and the climate will be right for a bird flu pandemic.

Another common claim is that World War III will be won by means of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons can do an enormous amount of damage, and they will be heavily used. But a war cannot be won with just by bombing, even by bombing with nuclear weapons. The war, whether it occurs this year, next year, or later, will be won with ground forces, and nuclear weapons will be used tactically.

Crisis Wars

The major findings of Generational Dynamics begin with the discovery that there are two kinds of wars: crisis (or generational) wars and non-crisis (or mid-cycle) wars.

Crisis wars are cyclic within a society, region or nation. They're the most horrible kinds of wars. They're so horrible and they traumatize a nation so much that there's unanimous agreement to do everything possible to prevent any such war from ever happening again. When the last generation of people who lived through the crisis war disappear (retire or die) all at the same time, then the nation enters a new crisis period, leading to a new crisis war. That's why a new crisis war typically begins around 60 years after the previous one ends.

Some people may think that America has been immune to genocidal crisis wars, but in fact there have been two since the nation's founding.

America's most recent crisis war was World War II. Before it was over, we firebombed and destroyed major cities like Dresden and Tokyo, with the intention of destroying the cities and their inhabitants, including millions of civilians. And we dropped nuclear weapons on two Japanese cities for exactly the same reason.

I'm not blaming the Allies for taking these genocidal actions, especially since our enemies would have done the same to us. But I'm making the point that genocidal actions like these always occur in crisis wars, and every nation and society has these crisis wars throughout it's history. Crisis wars are fundamental to human DNA, and are a requirement of "survival of the fittest."

Other 20th century wars did not exhibit anything like this kind of genocidal fury. America didn't use nuclear weapons in the Vietnam War, and in fact the war was stalled by bitter political recriminations, which is typical of non-crisis wars. And World War I had no such genocidal fury either, and in fact was mostly a static war in the West, which ended when Germany unexpectedly capitulated, long before it had to.

Prior to World War II, America's previous crisis war was the Civil War. At the climax of the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln OKed a "scorched earth policy": General Sherman marched through Georgia killing not only everyone in sight, but also destroyed all homes and crops so that any survivors starved to death.

This kind of genocidal behavior did not occur in any of America's other wars -- the Gulf War, the Vietnam War, the Korean War, World War I, the Spanish-American War, or the Mexican-American war.

The latter wars are non-crisis wars. Non-crisis wars are political wars -- they come from the politicians. They can start at any time a politician decides, and they can end at any time.

Crisis wars come "from the people" rather than from the politicians. They're almost like sex in their emotional ferocity. The recur in any society at roughly 70-90 year intervals. Crisis wars may get off to a bumpy start, but once they pick up speed they can't be stopped, and end with a genocidal fury.

About 55-60 years after one crisis war ends, the last generation of people who have personal memories of the genocidal horrors of the preceding crisis war all disappear (retire or die), all at roughly the same time, and the country enters a "generational crisis" period. This appears as a substantial change in attitudes in the public in general. We've already begun to see this in America, with the surprising and unexpected rise of "moral values" as a factor in the 2004 Presidential election. Whenever any country enters a generational crisis period, public opinions continue to harden until a new crisis war breaks out.

Donald Trump advisor warns Israel may unleash nukes in Middle East – 'Catastrophic'

David Sacks, the czar for AI and cryptocurrency in the Trump administration, warned that if Israel came under serious attack it could use the nuclear option

Mutually Assured Destruction

(MAD) is a Cold War-era doctrine holding that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by opposing sides would result in the complete annihilation of both attacker and defender. Based on deterrence, it assumes that assured destruction prevents either party from initiating conflict.

Pentagon Sends Marine Expeditionary Unit To Middle East, Oil Spikes On Ground War Fears

Update(1105ET): Are we really doing this (again)? The WSJ is reporting a breaking bombshell which suggests US ground forces could be introduced, or else this could also be about securing other areas of the Gulf region:

The Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, according to two U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for the expeditionary unit, typically consisting of up to 2,500 Marines, the officials said.

A follow-up update by WSJ appears to offer confirmation:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit, typically consisting of several warships and 5,000 Marines, the officials said.

The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said. Marines are already in the Middle East supporting the Iran operation, the officials said.

U.S. military deaths in Korea

The majority of U.S. military fatalities during the Korean War were battle deaths (63 percent), with a smaller number of deaths while missing (12 percent), deaths while captured (eight percent), or deaths from battle wounds (seven percent). In addition, around three percent of deaths were from airplane crashes which were not caused by hostile forces, with another seven percent dying of other causes unrelated to battle. In total around 36,000 U.S. military servicemembers were killed in Korea, out of a total of around 40,000 deaths for the UN forces combined. The war was the United States' second deadliest conflict of the Cold War, as well as its fifth deadliest ever, after the Vietnam War, World War I, World War II, and the Civil War.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a "clash of civilizations" world war, pitting the Muslim world (with China as an ally) against the Western World (with Russia and India as allies). This war was launched by events and social changes that occurred decades ago (and, some would say, centuries ago). Nothing can be done to prevent it today.

Although we can't predict the scenario leading up to that war, current events make it clear that Palestine and Israel will be the epicenter (or at least AN epicenter) of that war. This really shouldn't be surprising, since Palestine and Jerusalem have been the epicenter of many "world wars" for millennia.

However, it would be a mistake to assume that Israel is the only issue leading to a world war. America actually has signed a large number of mutual defense treaties with other countries as well. These include agreements with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New Zealand, and the NATO agreement with all of Europe, as well as with Israel.

More and more, I've been telling people lately the following: Treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation.

We can't predict the time frame for this war, but with the aggressiveness of Iran in its intent to eliminate Israel, with China's increasing economic instability, with Russia's increasing social instability, and with the the world population's increasing anxiety and fear over violence and terrorism, the time cannot be too far off.

As I've written many, many times, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988 with Saddam's use of chemical weapons. A generational Awakening era is always about a "generation gap," a political conflict between the generations of traumatized survivors of the preceding generational crisis war and the generations of young people who grew up after the war, and have no personal memory of it. The older and younger generations have completely different world views, and the political conflict continues until there's an Awakening era climax that settles the disputed. America's last Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, marked by the "Summer of Love," as well as widespread political and racial riots, until the Awakening era climax occurred in 1974 with the resignation of President Richard Nixon.

Iran is also headed for some kind of Awakening era climax, pitting the younger generations, current represented by Hassan Rouhani, versus the traumatized Great Islamic Revolution survivors, currently represented by Ebrahim Raissi and Ayatollah Khamenei.

Rouhani's decisive electoral victory is not enough to be called an Awakening era climax, but it could trigger events that could lead to such a climax. During the campaign, Rouhani bitterly criticized his political opponents, including Raissi's supporters and the powerful Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) which enforces many of the hardline laws. Now that the election is over, hardliners are expected to "settle scores," and this could result in a major political battle of a kind similar to the one that led to Nixon's resignation.

In fact, there is a particularly bitter battle on the horizon. Khamenei has been Supreme Leader since 1989, but he's 77 years old, and is in poor health, so there's a succession battle approaching. This succession battle may trigger the Awakening era climax that we've been describing. Tehran Times and Reuters and The Hindu

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Ahmadinejad's statements are part of a larger strategy that comes from political desperation, based on the mindset of the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the subsequent Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988.

To the hardliners who survived the war, the Revolution was a miracle that the united the entire country into a powerful Islamic unit that could then expel the invading Iraqis. This was an achievement of gigantic historic proportions to the entire Muslim world, since it revived the hope that Muslims throughout the region or even the world could be united behind one government, as they'd been united behind the Turkish government before the Ottoman Empire collapsed after WW I.

As always happens in every country, the children who grow up after a crisis war don't see the world in the same way that the war survivors do. Thus, when young people started having pro-American demonstrations in the late 1990s, Iran's hardliners began to panic.

That's why a new strategy became important with the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president in 2005, and everything he said and did should be regarded as a part of that strategy -- to unite the country and the region behind Iran's government. Thus, Ahmadinejad has talked about pushing Israel into the sea and about denying the Holocaust; he's providing funding to terrorist groups Hizbollah and Hamas, to provoke them into a war with Israel.

To suggest that this is all the words of a bumbling fool who is unintentionally provoking Israel and the world is not credible. The purpose is to unify the nation again, even at the risk of provoking a military strike. In fact, a military strike by Israel or America might even be welcomed.

As the student and "green movement" protests have grown and spread, the hardliners have become increasingly desperate. The protests are not simply putting a few policies at risk; they're jeopardizing the country's entire foreign policy. Furthermore, as the economy falters, they're even jeopardizing domestic policy. The protests that began after last year's disputed June 12 presidential election even bring the survival of the entire government into question, leading to brutal violence by Iran's security forces, firing into crowds, mass arrests, torture and brutalizing protestors.

Last year, analysts at Stratfor, BBC, and elsewhere were comparing the protests to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, that were crushed within a few days. But as I wrote at the time, that's the wrong historical comparison.

What Iran is going through is called a generational awakening era. (See "Basics of Generational Dynamics.")

It occurs in every country when the youngsters who grow up after a crisis war rebel against their parents and the austere rules and institutions created by the older generation to prevent a new crisis war. The political chaos reaches a peak some 20-25 years after the end of the crisis war.

The correct historical comparison is to America's Summer of Love, in 1967, 22 years after the end of World War II. This was followed by almost a decade of protests, climaxing in the resignation of President Nixon, and a political victory by the young Boomer protestors.

In Iran, those analysts who expect the the generational chaos to end soon will be disappointed. Even if street protests have been discouraged, the underlying generational conflict is still exploding, as shown by an explosion of stories recently about splits between moderates and hardliners within the government itself.

(As an aside for those of you who hate Boomers, if you'd like to know what they were like when they were young and cute, just talk to young Iranians. They're in the same generational archetype as America's Boomers.)

In one story, for example, hundreds of officers in the Revolutionary Guard Corps had to resign recently, because they were supporters of the Green Movement, as reported by WSJ. (Access)

One of the most dramatic splits in the government goes to a fundamental theological contradiction within the Revolutionary spirit itself.

The fantasy is that Iran will unite the Muslim world behind Iran's government. The reality is that Iran is a Shia Muslim state, and the countries on the Arabian peninsula are overwhelmingly Arab Sunni Muslims, and there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that they'll ever agree to be subordinate to a Persian Shia Iran.

To make matters worse, Ahmadinejad has claimed to be a devout believer in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ. (By the way, there's also a Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment.)

This zealous belief, which is not shared by Sunni Muslims or even all Shia Muslims, is a clear contradiction with the strategy of universal Muslim hegemony. (See "Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue.")

Now this inside theological split has burst out into the open. In an analysis by RFE/RL, Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, have infuriated hardliners by appearing to be making statements that move away from fundamentalist Shia Islam, and towards a more nationalist idea. In one controversial remark, Mashaei has said that Iran should be friendly with all people of the world, "including Israelis." According to the Asia Times, the right-wing factions in Iran's government are splintering so quickly that Ahmadinejad may be threatened with impeachment.

Every awakening era has a winner, and there are only two possibilities: the older generations that survived the war, or the youngsters who grew up after the war. The younger generation usually wins because, after all, the older generations die off. But if the older generations win, as has happened in China for example, it's very ominous for the country and will lead to a civil war in later years.

Right now, Iran is a schizophrenic nation, with a hardline government policy that's bitterly anti-American, and younger generations that are largely pro-American and pro-West, and who don't really have anything against Israel. Right now, it looks to me that the younger generation is going to win, but it may take a few years.

My expectation, as I've been saying for years, is that when Iran is finally forced to choose one side or the other in the Clash of Civilizations world war, they will be on the side of the West, including America and Israel. That's one very good reason why a military strike on Iran would be a bad idea.

Crisis Era (Fourth Turning) and the Regeneracy

America and many other countries have been entering a "Crisis Era" since the early 2000s -- not because of 9/11, but because the survivors of World War II are rapidly disappearing (retiring or dying), leaving Boomers in charge of most government, business, and education organizations.

The problem with Boomers is that they have no governing or leadership skills. They only know how to argue, and they learned that during the 1960s and 1970s. In country after country around the world -- France, Britain, Israel, Japan, China, South Africa, the U.S. and elsewhere -- governments are becoming increasingly paralyzed, and leaders are getting lower and lower approval ratings.

The reason for this paralysis is that the generations that survived WW II are gone now. Those people did some great things -- they created the United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution, World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, and so forth. They created these organizations and managed them for decades with one purpose in mind: That their children and grandchildren would never have to go through anything so horrible as World War II. Now all those people are gone, and the people left behind have no idea what's going on or what to do. They're unable to lead or govern. All they know how to do is whine and complain, and wait until the next disaster, the next world war, forces them to do great things as well.

Right behind the Boomers are the disaffected members of Generation-X. The Gen-Xers are frustrated and furious at what they see as the incompetence of Boomers. This frustration, which is true of Nomad archetypes throughout history, leads them to become somewhat nihilistic and self-destructive.

Together, the incompetent Boomers and the nihilistic Gen-Xers form a potentially lethal combination. Motivated by fury and anger at Boomers for doing nothing, the Gen-Xers rush in to "do something", and the things they do can be disastrous -- lead to world war, lead to financial disaster. The Boomers, who are serving as senior level managers throughout government, business and education, might be expected to control these Xer impulses, but being totally blind and incompetent means that the Gen-Xers have a free hand. It's this lethal combination that's already destroyed the world financial system, and will undoubtedly do worse.

When does a Crisis ERA turn into a Crisis WAR?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this question has a specific answer: it's a point of time defined in generational theory and known as the "regeneracy." The regeneracy is the point in time where an event, or series of events (like the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan death march in World War II or the Battle of Bull Run in the Civil War) unify a country or society behind its leader, and the survival of the country and its way of life become the highest priority, higher than the value of an individual life. This change opens the door to genocidal acts, since an individual human life has little value any more.

It's impossible to predict what event will trigger the regeneracy -- possibly a major terrorist attack on American soil, or possibly a major military defeat overseas -- but this event will end the political bickering, will unify the country once more, and will send the young Millennial generation off to war.

FullMoon wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2026 10:38 am

WASHINGTON (AP) — Outdated intelligence likely led to the United States carrying out a deadly missile strike on an elementary school in Iran that killed over 165 people, many of them children, in the opening hours of the conflict, according to a U.S. official and a second person briefed on findings of a preliminary U.S military investigation into the incident

.
It's very forgiving of them to blame our lack of sophistication and military incapability of seeing the difference between children and military targets. Sadly, they're actually probably not as stupid as incapable as people want to believe. The reasons for this attack at unclear but certainly malevolent. The bombing and indiscriminate mass murder has already proven to galvanize a population which otherwise would have continued to move towards the West and against hardliner religious fanatics.
Like Russia, we've continued to use FORCE and violence to achieve diplomatic goals. End times are not necessarily religious in nature. It's just TEOTWAWKI. Anyone who claims to be a prophet and know what will happen in the future is certainly, by nature, a charlatan. Evidence is the pedo POTUS, admitted liar, rapist and thief. He's always saying what's going to happen next. Just loves to blatantly lie to everyone and takes pleasure in seeing lots of people believing it.

FullMoon wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2026 10:38 am

tim wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2026 8:48 am The difference between a crisis era and an awakening era:

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603041361

Iran International has reviewed footage received directly from inside Iran in the hours following the strikes.

In one clip, explosions can be seen in the background with plumes of smoke rising over Tehran as an Iranian man says: “Thank you Mr. President, thank President Trump, we love you.”

In another video, a woman shouts “Trump!” followed by cheers, clapping and the sound of what appears to be a vuvuzela-style horn as a group of Iranians celebrate.

In a separate clip filmed inside Iran, a woman says in Farsi: “Bibi, we are happy, Netanyahu, Israel, Trump...death to Terrorist, thank you for helping us Hooray.”

Another video, recorded after the bombing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s headquarters, shows a group of young people flashing peace signs as they welcome the joint US-Israel military strikes.

C'mon Tim. You did a good job in recognizing the scamdemic hoax and bioweapon genocide reality. But now you're straying from reality. Although there might be some people within that country who are happy to see it's destruction, who would doubt for even a second that our own country has MANY more people who look forward nihilistically towards our demise

tim wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2026 8:48 am The difference between a crisis era and an awakening era:

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603041361

Iran International has reviewed footage received directly from inside Iran in the hours following the strikes.

In one clip, explosions can be seen in the background with plumes of smoke rising over Tehran as an Iranian man says: “Thank you Mr. President, thank President Trump, we love you.”

In another video, a woman shouts “Trump!” followed by cheers, clapping and the sound of what appears to be a vuvuzela-style horn as a group of Iranians celebrate.

In a separate clip filmed inside Iran, a woman says in Farsi: “Bibi, we are happy, Netanyahu, Israel, Trump...death to Terrorist, thank you for helping us Hooray.”

Another video, recorded after the bombing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s headquarters, shows a group of young people flashing peace signs as they welcome the joint US-Israel military strikes.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Outdated intelligence likely led to the United States carrying out a deadly missile strike on an elementary school in Iran that killed over 165 people, many of them children, in the opening hours of the conflict, according to a U.S. official and a second person briefed on findings of a preliminary U.S military investigation into the incident