by Trevor » Thu Jun 12, 2025 3:50 pm
It is a shame John's no longer with us. When he first predicted we'd be at war with China, all the way back in 2002, public opinion toward China was positive or at least neutral. Plenty believed that as they developed economically, they'd become freer, but if anything, the opposite has happened. However, he'd expected things to blow up long before now, like around 2011-2012. It's 2025 and somehow things haven't exploded, even if we're still on the same trend line.
I've suspected for some time that NATO will fall apart in the coming conflict, if not before. Most of Europe don't see China as a threat the way we do, and for the United States, Russia isn't a high priority. They've gotten used to us doing the heavy lifting, meaning that a lot of Americans are resentful of it. We're not talking poor countries for whom such helplessness is understandable; they're the wealthiest countries in the world, and so much more "civilized", as they never miss an opportunity to point out.
It's fashionable to compare the United States to Rome. However, under such conditions, Europe would bear a strong resemblance to Greece: formerly powerful, dynamic civilizations a ruin of their former self, with only their cultural legacy remaining. Until recently, we had to do the heavy lifting with the Ukraine war despite being half a world away. Whether it's the Balkans, the financial crisis, and Ukraine, they've shown a stunning lack of ability to put up a united front.
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I don't think we'll know until it's over, but I think October 7 was a "regeneracy" moment for Israel. Hamas and the Palestinians have always counted on world opinion to restrain Israel. It allows them to win a political victory, make Israel appear like monsters, all the while they gain political support at home and abroad.
However, Israel no longer gives a damn about world opinion, having decided that they're going to be loathed no matter what. Comparisons have been made to September 11th, but I think Pearl Harbor is a better analogy. From what I've seen of Israeli media, even those who were once sympathetic to the Palestinians are screaming for blood and retribution. Ethnic cleansing of Gaza holds majority public support, and prominent politicians refer to them as vermin. The United Nations might be calling it genocide, and in a different era, the public outrage would convince Israel to show restraint. Not this time.
There's far less regard for civilian casualties, given that tens of thousands of Palestinians had died, and the indirect deaths might push this to over 100,000. Hezbollah's been devastated and since Israel took the gloves off, neither they nor Iran have dared to launch a direct strike.
It is a shame John's no longer with us. When he first predicted we'd be at war with China, all the way back in 2002, public opinion toward China was positive or at least neutral. Plenty believed that as they developed economically, they'd become freer, but if anything, the opposite has happened. However, he'd expected things to blow up long before now, like around 2011-2012. It's 2025 and somehow things haven't exploded, even if we're still on the same trend line.
I've suspected for some time that NATO will fall apart in the coming conflict, if not before. Most of Europe don't see China as a threat the way we do, and for the United States, Russia isn't a high priority. They've gotten used to us doing the heavy lifting, meaning that a lot of Americans are resentful of it. We're not talking poor countries for whom such helplessness is understandable; they're the wealthiest countries in the world, and so much more "civilized", as they never miss an opportunity to point out.
It's fashionable to compare the United States to Rome. However, under such conditions, Europe would bear a strong resemblance to Greece: formerly powerful, dynamic civilizations a ruin of their former self, with only their cultural legacy remaining. Until recently, we had to do the heavy lifting with the Ukraine war despite being half a world away. Whether it's the Balkans, the financial crisis, and Ukraine, they've shown a stunning lack of ability to put up a united front.
XXXXXXXXXX
I don't think we'll know until it's over, but I think October 7 was a "regeneracy" moment for Israel. Hamas and the Palestinians have always counted on world opinion to restrain Israel. It allows them to win a political victory, make Israel appear like monsters, all the while they gain political support at home and abroad.
However, Israel no longer gives a damn about world opinion, having decided that they're going to be loathed no matter what. Comparisons have been made to September 11th, but I think Pearl Harbor is a better analogy. From what I've seen of Israeli media, even those who were once sympathetic to the Palestinians are screaming for blood and retribution. Ethnic cleansing of Gaza holds majority public support, and prominent politicians refer to them as vermin. The United Nations might be calling it genocide, and in a different era, the public outrage would convince Israel to show restraint. Not this time.
There's far less regard for civilian casualties, given that tens of thousands of Palestinians had died, and the indirect deaths might push this to over 100,000. Hezbollah's been devastated and since Israel took the gloves off, neither they nor Iran have dared to launch a direct strike.