Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

It's clear to anyone honest AND in their right mind that Ukraine is essentially a lost cause. Europeans are panicking but they're crazier than the local loonies Leftists and the Russians certainly don't want anything to do with them besides giving them a lesson and putting them in their place. As is proper.
We can only hope that Trump is smart enough not to have been persuaded by their groveling and makes a deal with Russia that puts America first and gives us the edge we need that's been demolished by decades of stupidity and nation destroying decisions.

The latest news is that Russia's managed a breakthrough near Pokrovsk, surging almost twenty kilometers in a single day, moving more rapidly than anything we've seen since the start of the war. It's too early to say whether this means a collapse of the Ukrainian front, but this doesn't look good. Even in the First World War, a breakthrough was eventually achieved after long periods of stasis. Ukraine's been suffering a manpower shortage for some time, with commanders saying they need at least another 100,000 troops on the frontline to plug the gap.

When it comes to Europe, so long as there's even a remote hope of America taking the lead, they're not going to do what's necessary to rebuild their military. Poland, the Baltics, and Finland are the only exceptions. Even Eastern Europe hasn't moved at the necessary speed, although unlike Western Europe, they've at least done something.

At this point, Putin's got no reason to stop. Even losing a quarter of a million Russians won't matter if they manage to consume Ukraine, conscript anyone unable to flee as cannon fodder. What I wonder is whether this will motivate NATO and especially Trump to act. In the Second World War, we didn't begin rebuilding our military, expecting a repeat of WWI, only France fell in six weeks.

China's Achille's heel has always been, and still is, food.

Once a war starts, their agricultural imports will mostly be cut off and they will slowly start to starve. In the end, this would probably bring about the internal revolution necessary to overthrow the CCP.

Same thing brought down the Kaiser and Germany in WW1.

The unfortunate thing is that this takes at least a couple of years to play out.

We overestimated Russia's military strength, but underestimated the price they (or Putin) were willing to pay to accomplish these goals. Estimates are around 250,000 dead Russians over the past 3.5 years, and over 3,500 tanks destroyed, with independent verification. I've noticed over the last three-four months, vehicle losses have plummeted, alongside reports of seeing them on the battlefield. I expect they've exhausted their Soviet-era reserves and have to rely on whatever their manufacturing can produce. They've had far more luck mass producing artillery shells and drones than tanks/aircraft/IFVs. Over 90% of their assaults are Shahed drones, not ballistic missiles.

While their advances are still tiny, they're starting to accelerate. It's been around 1,900 square miles, about the equivalent of what they took in 2024, twice what they seized in 2023. A war of attrition is far from ideal, but Russia's never been averse to heavy losses. It's a cold-blooded calculation: they can replace them to a greater degree than Ukraine. It's not a guarantee it'll work, but even in the First World War, long attrition did eventually lead to a breakthrough.

Younger Ukrainians also have the option of fleeing to neighboring countries. It's against the law, but if things get desperate enough, they're unlikely to care. I still see it as more likely Ukraine will collapse than Russia, though I don't completely rule the latter out. A significant percentage of soldiers on both sides are in their 40s.

No, we won't rebuild our production to what it's going to need when war breaks out, but no one is ever prepared for a large-scale conflict. In 1914, all sides ran out of artillery within 3-4 months, forcing them to begin a crash production. However, it would have been worse for us in Japan had attacked in 1940, rather than 1941, so any preparation we make now will make things easier.

China's the world's assembly line, but unlike the United States in WWII, doesn't have the same innovation. Much of what they have managed has come from stealing data and with their electronics, crucial roles are filled by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all American allies. The CCP would have been better off if the Ukraine invasion hadn't happened, forcing us to realize how unprepared we were for a long conflict, but that could add additional pressure on them to act quickly.

[quote=Trevor post_id=91621 time=1754256226 user_id=2033]
There's no feasible way to stop or even meaningfully slow down our debt problem, given how people screamed over a budget cut that amounted to 1/1000th of total federal spending. It's not just the United States. The rest of the world has the same problem. China's debt problem makes ours look small and those are their public numbers; I'd hate to see the actual ones.
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Agreed. China's crisis could move them to act in advance of their plans. We will soon see.

[quote=Trevor post_id=91621 time=1754256226 user_id=2033]
I'm not sure how much Russia, China, and Iran are truly coordinating with one another. The idea of draining our missile stockpiles sounds good in theory, but that's also led to rapidly expanding production. Even if not at WWII levels, we still have a significant manufacturing base and produce more high-end products than the Chinese do. What we're doing now might not be sufficient, but it's at least a beginning. It'd have been a lot worse if war with China broke out before Ukraine and we were forced to grapple with these issues under attack.
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Also agree with this. China's optimal time to move would have been Oct 23 or Apr 24. Biden would have done nothing.

Luckily we are seriously looking at significant bottlenecks and problems with munition production. But it will not be enough to get us to where we need to be vis a vis the Chinese until after war starts.

[quote=Trevor post_id=91621 time=1754256226 user_id=2033]
I also question whether NATO would truly support us in the event of a conflict. Now that Trump's passing his own aid bills for Ukraine, realizing Putin's not going to stop his conquest, Europe's falling back into its usual pattern of letting us do the heavy lifting. I'm sure Trump would like to see them stand up to Russia on their own, because there's no reason why they can't. Even without the U.S., NATO is far stronger, and China is far more dangerous.
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Europe still has significant armament production capability, and I am sure that NATO would be happy to sell us munitions (rather than donate them to Ukraine) if we were in conflict with China. Therefore China needs to, at a minimum, have some kind of leverage to minimize this. Better yet would be to bolster Russia once war in Asia breaks out so that Russia can finish off Ukraine and potentially neutralize Poland, if not more.

[quote=Trevor post_id=91621 time=1754256226 user_id=2033]
Only they can't, whatever their rhetoric might be about self-reliance. Europe likes the idea in the abstract, but when it comes to the serious commitment they'd have to make, including small cuts to their social programs, it's mostly: "Hell, no!" Most countries that have begun a military buildup, even an insufficient one, are in Eastern Europe. Except for Poland, Finland, and the Baltics, their buildup has been moderate at best. For Western Europe, they're barely doing anything at all. Britain and France have about the same level of spending they did in 2021, and it wasn't until last year that Germany began gearing up. 35 years of atrophy won't be easily overcome, and for most, Russia is a distant threat.
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It wouldn't surprise me in the least if most of NATO suddenly withdrew from the pact and declared neutrality if faced with the definite prospect of a real war that would mean sacrifice on their part. Ala Belgium right before WW2. And mostly likely with the same consequences as with Belgium's idiotic move in that conflict.

[quote=Trevor post_id=91621 time=1754256226 user_id=2033]
Ukraine's slowly falling under the Russian barrage. Russia's losses are at least 50% higher, based off the number of deaths we can confirm by name, but they can afford the losses and Ukraine can't. My heart goes out to them, but I don't think this is a fight they're going to win.
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Yes. The really sad thing is that the 18-30yr old Ukrainians don't want to fight. They evidently have no memory of living under Russian domination, so they cannot fathom what will happen. The irony is that when Ukraine falls, these younger Ukrainians are going to find themselves forced to fight for the Russians, with Russian guns to their backs, just like their great grandfathers.

There's no feasible way to stop or even meaningfully slow down our debt problem, given how people screamed over a budget cut that amounted to 1/1000th of total federal spending. It's not just the United States. The rest of the world has the same problem. China's debt problem makes ours look small and those are their public numbers; I'd hate to see the actual ones.

I'm not sure how much Russia, China, and Iran are truly coordinating with one another. The idea of draining our missile stockpiles sounds good in theory, but that's also led to rapidly expanding production. Even if not at WWII levels, we still have a significant manufacturing base and produce more high-end products than the Chinese do. What we're doing now might not be sufficient, but it's at least a beginning. It'd have been a lot worse if war with China broke out before Ukraine and we were forced to grapple with these issues under attack.

I also question whether NATO would truly support us in the event of a conflict. Now that Trump's passing his own aid bills for Ukraine, realizing Putin's not going to stop his conquest, Europe's falling back into its usual pattern of letting us do the heavy lifting. I'm sure Trump would like to see them stand up to Russia on their own, because there's no reason why they can't. Even without the U.S., NATO is far stronger, and China is far more dangerous.

Only they can't, whatever their rhetoric might be about self-reliance. Europe likes the idea in the abstract, but when it comes to the serious commitment they'd have to make, including small cuts to their social programs, it's mostly: "Hell, no!" Most countries that have begun a military buildup, even an insufficient one, are in Eastern Europe. Except for Poland, Finland, and the Baltics, their buildup has been moderate at best. For Western Europe, they're barely doing anything at all. Britain and France have about the same level of spending they did in 2021, and it wasn't until last year that Germany began gearing up. 35 years of atrophy won't be easily overcome, and for most, Russia is a distant threat.

Ukraine's slowly falling under the Russian barrage. Russia's losses are at least 50% higher, based off the number of deaths we can confirm by name, but they can afford the losses and Ukraine can't. My heart goes out to them, but I don't think this is a fight they're going to win.

If and when war comes, I consider it a significant possibility that NATO will tell us: "Screw you, you're on your own!" We've gotten fed up with them, and Europe by and large can't stand us. (With partial exceptions) Not that they could provide anything more than symbolic assistance in their current position. China might prop up Russia to keep us distracted, but I suspect it's pointless. If we have to abandon Europe to face China, we will.

[quote][u][i][b][size=200]Trump orders deployment of nuclear submarines after Medvedev’s ‘Dead Hand’ remark[/size][/b][/i][/u][/quote]
https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/Aug/01/trump-orders-deployment-of-nuclear-submarines-after-medvedevs-dead-hand-remark
Apparently Trump either didn't know what "dead hand" means or he jumped at the occasion to escalate us to a much higher level of nuclear brinkmanship. Either way, it's an exceedingly good example of the lunacy of our leadership and a sign of the times. Especially because Google search of "dead hand" doesn't have any major Western news outlets talking about it. Perhaps people don't care or have already forgotten this incident. Stumbling into nuclear war? That seems to be how it will be possible.
Tha last of the sensible generation who developed WMD's are now dead or irrelevant. W have nobody standing up for resolving a rapidly escalation into WW3. It's more popular to focus on the pedophilia of our elites or the genitals of our youth. Let's not pretend that this is anything but an obvious sign that we're at the end. The end of what is unknown. And what comes next is surely unknown. Hopefully it won't end with too big of a bang. But we shouldn't discount such a possibility which seems to be rising more rapidly than most people realize and those that do, it's altogether breathtaking.

I can agree on the debt and the bubbles. Eventual trouble.

Normal? Trump is obsessed with tariffs. Many nations are changing their trade arrangements to get around the tariff expenses. China, Canada, Mexico and Europe are included. I would not describe this as normal. Still, if anything they will make things blow up sooner.

On the surface it seems that economically the West, especially the US, is doing pretty well. Everything seems to be going along as normal, just as it has for decades.

The problem is that "behind the curtain" are two monsters. One is DEBT. The other is the speculatively based asset bubble in both Securities (Stocks) and Real Estate. Neither of these things are going to go away as they cannot be solved without the implosion of the current economic system.

They are going to blow up. There is no way they can continue indefinitely.

Russia at this point is completely dependent on China. I am sure they do not like this situation one bit, but they have no alternatives. They are thus a vassal of China, and are compelled to take direction from them.

This obviously suits the CCP.

The idea is to keep at least a viable threat versus NATO so that NATO cannot redeploy resources to Asia when the CCP makes it move.