Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Jun 16, 2025 8:58 pm

At the same time that the Israel-Iran conflict heats up, we are seeing a substantial escalation of civil unrest in the US.

As I mentioned before, the CCP is funding the Anti ICE demonstrations and the recent "No Kings Day" demonstrations. They will continue to ramp up this kind of activity as they try to plunge the US into civil chaos that may surpass what was seen during the Vietnam War.

Here is a good video of how China is funding anti-US government leftist groups who are behind much of the civil unrest (start at 7:08 point):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUNfEzn ... Uncensored

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Jun 16, 2025 8:48 pm

I am seeing some articles saying that they believe the Iranians may back down. I seriously doubt it.

The Iranians are led by Shia religious fanatics. They are FULLY committed to their interpretation of Islam. They believe, with full commitment, that Allah is backing them, and that they are incapable of losing. This belief is no different from fanatical Nazis or the Japanese in WW2. To them defeat was inconceivable. It is the same with the Iranian Mullahs.

Right now the Mullahs believe that their faith is merely being tested and that they will miraculously be victorious. For this reason I believe that they will pull out all the stops and even cross the line into attempting to block the Straights of Hormuz. This is not a rational course of action, but they probably believe that they are meant to engage even with the US.

There is a slight chance that the regular Iranian military may balk at this and stage some kind of coup (I think that's what the Israelis are hoping for), but the Mullahs have had decades to get rid of anyone in the Iranian military that they may even suspect of non-ferver regarding Shia Islam.

So I think this will get worse. Much worse.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Jun 16, 2025 8:41 pm

I certainly understand that many of the opinions I post are not in line with all of John's Generational Dynamic Theory. While John and I agreed on a LOT of things, I did not agree with a number of specifics. Most prominent amongst these was my being completely in DISagreement with John that Russian and Iran would be aligned with the US against China.

If you closely go back through the back and forth between John and I about this in the period 2018-2021 you can see the disagreement debated.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, John did change his tune. He believed that a Russia-China conflict was still on the table, but that it would probably have to wait until AFTER the China-US conflict would be resolved. I do believe that he understood as time went on post-Russia invasion of Ukraine, that Russia had become completely dependent on China, and would play along with Chinese desires until China dealt with the US.

I agreed that there was definitely tension in the China-Russia alliance, and I believe it is similar to the tension that existed between the Germans and Austro-Hungarians (AH) in WW1. By 1915, the AH empire was so crippled militarily that it became completely dependent on the Germans, even allowing them to take the lead in military operations in what they would have regarded as solely their sphere of influence (the Balkans; then even Italy - areas the Germans had no real interest in, but had to engage in due to AH military incompetence).

So, while I think that in general terms Generational Dynamics can help to understand what is going on, I am not a "full-on" believer. There are exceptions, where it doesn't necessarily hold up. WW1-WW2 time period is the case in point historically, the China-Russia-Iran-NKorea alliance is the current case in point.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Mon Jun 16, 2025 6:10 am

Navigator wrote: Fri Jun 13, 2025 2:14 pm Unfortunately, I see zero hope in the short term of Iran becoming an ally of the west, let alone reproachment with Israel.

First off, let me congratulate the Israeli's on what seems to be a very successful initial strike on Iran. Such action has been needed for DECADES.

The US has technically been in a state of war with Iran since the Embassy takeover in 1978. The fanatical nut jobs (first Khomeini and now his son) will NEVER give up the path that they are pursuing as per their interpretation of Shia Islam. They are doing this to the utter detriment of their population, and while the majority of Iranians have no love of their regime, they are powerless to affect any kind of change. As was seen years ago during small scale demonstrations, any dissent is brutally and bloodily crushed by the quasi-militia forces that hold substantial power over the broad population.

The Iranians were NEVER going to give up their quest for atomic weapons. This had to be done. It should have been done to the North Koreans in the late 1980s or early 1990s, but no US President had the guts to do it. And now look at the nightmare in northern Asia that resulted.

It seems to me that the Trump administration understood this, and we were playing along with the Iranians in "negotiations" while the Israelis finished their plans and preparations. Israel had already done quite a bit of damage to the Iranian infrastructure last year. They should finish that job along with taking out any kind of technological industry or wherewithal that the Iranians have.

However, when a foreign country (Israel) bombs your country (Iran), the response is generally increased support for the local regime. This means that Iranians, out of their own national pride, will, at least in the short term, most likely rally to the flag of the Ayatollahs.

The next potential nightmare is that the Ayatollahs, out of desperation, take military measures to close the Straights of Hormuz, blocking oil tanker traffic in/out of the Persian Gulf. Yes, the Iranians are very dependent on their own oil revenue, but if they feel that their "back is against the wall", they may do this. This would mean that the US would become involved militarily, and would most likely require occupation of coastal areas (to stop the launching of anti ship missiles and deployment of mines into the Gulf. This is because the Gulf is so critical to the world economy.

Such a scenario would drag the US into yet another middle east war, which obviously would be highly unpopular in the US, and even more so in Europe. And if you think the anti-ICE riots are bad, just wait for this.
Iran is in a generational awakening era.

The Iran-Iraq War in 1980 (where chemical weapons were used on civilians) was Iran's last generational crisis war. Not enough time has passed since the end of that war. It takes roughly 80 years for the cycle to reset so Iran won't be facing another Crisis War/Fourth Turning until around 2060.

The most basic teachings of Generational Dynamics contradicts what you're saying here.
In dozens of articles in the last few years, I've stated and restated the core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant, except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people.
Since Iraq's last Crisis War was with Iran in 1980, the same analysis can be used towards Iran.

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... 040409.htm
What Iraqi Civil War?

Early in 2003, I predicted that there would be no popular uprising against the Americans, and that there would be no civil war. After the overthrow of Saddam, I said that an Iraqi civil war was impossible. Despite the constant near-hysteria of the politicians, journalists and high-priced analysts,

I've been right so far. Here's why. (09-Apr-04)Summary

Iraq is in a generational "awakening" period, like America in the 1960s. During the 60s, we had assassinations, riots, looting, radical rhetoric, and low-level violence, but no civil war. Similarly, a popular civil war in Iraq today is impossible, despite the warnings of politicians, journalists, and high-priced analysts

Why no civil war in Iraq?

The short answer is: Because only one generation has passed since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and a popular civil war is impossible so soon after a crisis war.
Let's take a moment to compare Iran today to America in the 1960s, because the equivalence is precise.

Iraq today is one generation past its last crisis war, the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

America in the 1960s was one generation past its last crisis war, World War II. You have to understand 1960s America if you want to understand Iraq today.

If you're reading this and you're under 65-70 years old, then you probably have no idea how horrible WW II was for most Americans. Rumors of German bombers on the east coast and Japanese bombers on the west coast abounded, and terrorized Americans formed watch groups to watch for incoming bombers. Body bags with American soldiers were coming in by the boatloads from Europe and the Pacific. Everyone was affected by the war, had lost friends and family in the war, and feared for the American way of life and even the nation's survival. If you were traumatized by 9/11, then imagine the 9/11 attacks ten times a day for a couple of years and you'll begin to understand World War II.

When WW II ended, those who survived vowed that nothing like that must ever be allowed to happen again. Society reorganized itself to fight the new menace, the Communists, who would have to be stopped before they were allowed to start World War III.

By the 1960s, kids born after WW II came of age, and that's when the American awakening began. There was a well-known "generation gap," as college kids rebelled against the austere rules imposed by those who had survived WW II.

Look what happened in America in the 60s and early 70s: President Kennedy was assassinated; Martin Luther King was assassinated; Robert Kennedy was assassinated; there was a series of "hot summers," with racial rebellions in many cities, the most well known being the Watts riots in L.A. in 1965; there were huge riots and demonstrations in Washington D.C., and in other large cities; many of these riots degenerated into violence.

In all, three different presidencies ended in ruin in one way or another: President Kennedy's by assassination, President Johnson by being forced not to run again; and President Nixon by forced resignation.

But there was NO CIVIL WAR.
This is EXACTLY what's happening in Iraq today.

The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s was a horrific crisis war, where even poison gas was used to kill people. Those who survived that war want no part of another one.

That's the context in which you have to understand the riots and demonstrations by Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moktada al-Sadr's private militia. Al-Sadr himself is 30 years old, and his followers are in their teens and 20s. These are kids with little or no personal memory of the 1980s war. They don't really care that much one way or the other about the American-led Coalition; they're just kids, and they're rebelling against their own parents more than anything else. In most cases, they have no strong convictions except to have fun.

That's why I've been saying for over a year that a popular civil war is impossible. There's no one who wants a war like that. The older generation will do anything to prevent such a war, and the younger generation really doesn't give a f--k. There's no fuel for a civil war.

I've looked at dozens, perhaps hundreds, of crisis wars throughout history, and there's never been a popular civil war just one generation past a crisis war. It's impossible.
Iran. Iran is also in a generational awakening period. Since 1999, there have been large pro-American college student demonstrations. Some analysts, apparently including some in the Bush administration, are advocating a policy of encouraging the students to overthrow the Iranian mullahs. Such a policy would almost certainly fail: There is no more chance of a civil war in Iran than there is in Iraq.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Mon Jun 16, 2025 5:56 am

Phong Tran wrote: Fri Jun 13, 2025 7:54 am Thanks for finding and posting those Tim.

Does anyone remember if John mentioned anything about why he doesn't mention Europe in his Clash of Civilizations world war?
I only recall him saying that Western Europe would be aligned with the U.S. against China and that Russia would be fighting China.

Values of Warfare?

by Bob Butler » Mon Jun 16, 2025 3:53 am

I once read an unusual perspective on the Middle East. During the Industrial Age while Europe fought in forests with infantry and melee weapons, much of the Middle East fought in deserts with horse archers. This resulted in a basic difference in tactics. If you were losing in a fight as a horse archer, you backed off. You used mobility to seek an advantage. As infantry, you stuck with it. You gutted it out and sought resolution, with your shield or on it.

This lesson, ethic or tactic seemed to have stuck using modern ranged weapons. Israel dominates. The western success in revolution has not spread to the point where Muslims overthrow autocratic government. That part of the world seems stuck. I don't know how to fix it.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by spottybrowncow » Fri Jun 13, 2025 8:35 pm

I knew a woman about 10 years ago who was married to an Iranian.
They mentioned that his brother, who lived in Iran, had been recently hanged for belonging to a pro-western group.
I had been following this forum for a few years at that point, so I said to him "I'm very sorry. I understand, from reading, that the average Iranian is actually pro-western, and doesn't like the repressive regime. Why don't they band together and take over the government?"
He looked me in the eye, and said very deliberately, "because they have all the guns."
I have no doubt about what the democrats / globalists have planned for us, if they get control. On the 2A I'm a one-issue voter.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Fri Jun 13, 2025 2:14 pm

Unfortunately, I see zero hope in the short term of Iran becoming an ally of the west, let alone reproachment with Israel.

First off, let me congratulate the Israeli's on what seems to be a very successful initial strike on Iran. Such action has been needed for DECADES.

The US has technically been in a state of war with Iran since the Embassy takeover in 1978. The fanatical nut jobs (first Khomeini and now his son) will NEVER give up the path that they are pursuing as per their interpretation of Shia Islam. They are doing this to the utter detriment of their population, and while the majority of Iranians have no love of their regime, they are powerless to affect any kind of change. As was seen years ago during small scale demonstrations, any dissent is brutally and bloodily crushed by the quasi-militia forces that hold substantial power over the broad population.

The Iranians were NEVER going to give up their quest for atomic weapons. This had to be done. It should have been done to the North Koreans in the late 1980s or early 1990s, but no US President had the guts to do it. And now look at the nightmare in northern Asia that resulted.

It seems to me that the Trump administration understood this, and we were playing along with the Iranians in "negotiations" while the Israelis finished their plans and preparations. Israel had already done quite a bit of damage to the Iranian infrastructure last year. They should finish that job along with taking out any kind of technological industry or wherewithal that the Iranians have.

However, when a foreign country (Israel) bombs your country (Iran), the response is generally increased support for the local regime. This means that Iranians, out of their own national pride, will, at least in the short term, most likely rally to the flag of the Ayatollahs.

The next potential nightmare is that the Ayatollahs, out of desperation, take military measures to close the Straights of Hormuz, blocking oil tanker traffic in/out of the Persian Gulf. Yes, the Iranians are very dependent on their own oil revenue, but if they feel that their "back is against the wall", they may do this. This would mean that the US would become involved militarily, and would most likely require occupation of coastal areas (to stop the launching of anti ship missiles and deployment of mines into the Gulf. This is because the Gulf is so critical to the world economy.

Such a scenario would drag the US into yet another middle east war, which obviously would be highly unpopular in the US, and even more so in Europe. And if you think the anti-ICE riots are bad, just wait for this.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Phong Tran » Fri Jun 13, 2025 7:54 am

Thanks for finding and posting those Tim.

Does anyone remember if John mentioned anything about why he doesn't mention Europe in his Clash of Civilizations world war?

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by tim » Fri Jun 13, 2025 6:17 am

https://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg ... 180102.htm
2-Jan-18 World View -- Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship

Trump and Netanyahu express solidarity with Iranian protesters

As long-time readers are aware, I predicted over ten years ago, based on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would be a United States ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war.

Ten years ago, the idea that Iran and the US would become allies seemed fantastical and insane. But during the Barack Obama administration, whatever one thinks of the Iran nuclear deal, Iran and America overcame much of the vitriolic rancor that separated them.

The reason that Iran and the US are becoming allies is generational. The hardliners in Iran are in the dying generations that fought in the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, and considered the Iranian Hostage Crisis a great victory for them. However, those people are dying off, and the generations growing up after the war are pro-Western and pro-American. At some point, there will be an "Awakening climax" in Iran, like the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974, that signals the victory of the younger generations over the war survivors, and the end of the hardline regime. A likely outcome is that Iran will become the same kind of ally as it was under the Shah of Iran, prior to 1979.

So we're seeing Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu expressing friendship and support for Iran -- but not for the old geezers in the hardline regime, but for the young generation of protesters.

Donald Trump tweeted as follows:

"Big protests in Iran. The people are finally getting wise as to how their money and wealth is being stolen and squandered on terrorism. Looks like they will not take it any longer. The USA is watching very closely for human rights violations!
Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching!

The entire world understands that the good people of Iran want change, and, other than the vast military power of the United States, that Iran’s people are what their leaders fear the most."

Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video in which he said the following:

"Iran’s cruel regime wastes tens of billions of dollars spreading hate. This money could have built schools and hospitals. No wonder mothers and fathers are marching in the streets. The regime is terrified of them, of their own people.
This regime tries desperately to sow hate between us. But they won’t succeed. And when this regime finally falls, and one day it will, Iranians and Israelis will be great friends once again. I wish the Iranian people success in their noble quest for freedom."

The possible friendship between Netanyahu and the Iranian people exposes an important conflict in the geopolitics of the Mideast.

Recently, Israel has been closely allied with Egypt in fighting Islamist terrorists, especially in Egypt's northern Sinai. Egypt has also been an ally of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Arab split that led to the blockade of Qatar over its close relations with Iran.

Israel has also recently been closely allied with Saudi Arabia because of their common enmity to Iran.

If you connect all those dots and now throw in a possible future détente between Israel and Iran, then you quickly arrive at a conflict. This is not a trivial situation, and will almost certainly lead to some kind of conflict not currently anticipated.

Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Reuters and Jerusalem Online

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