Dear Thomas,
thomasglee wrote:
> BTW: Do you see what's happening in the Middle East right now
> reminiscent of the "Spring of Nations" that occurred in central
> Europe in 1848/49? The changes are clearly a matter of
> generational changes albeit at different points in each country.
I try to distinguish between Awakening era demonstrations and Crisis
era demonstrations, since the motivations are different, even though
they appear to be similar kinds of riots. Awakening era rioters are
motivated by rebellion against the austere rules and institutions set
up by their parents after the crisis war, while Crisis era rioters are
motivated by anxieties over the failures of Awakening era policies.
In the Mideast today, there's a mix. Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
and Iran are in generational Awakening or Unraveling eras, so the
riots are not particularly dangerous. But Yemen, Jordan, the
Palestinian territories and Egypt are in generational Crisis eras, so
those riots are potentially very dangerous.
John