Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Just like last time the assholes are still in denial.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Apr 26, 2025 1:05 pm Back to this.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Apr 14, 2024 12:49 pm I've mentioned in these pages that somewhere around 1971, give or take a few years, and it would vary from sector to sector with probably the more complex sectors coming first, that the US entered the maintenance phase of a declining civilization. There was a slow recognition and response to that turning point.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:13 pm The mix of jobs begins to change and women are able to better do many of the jobs that become prominent during the maintenance and decline phase (like health care and education, which really just serve to milk out the surplus of the civilization before it collapses).

WTF Happened In 1971?
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

While many of the graphs on this site are pertinent and interesting, I want to highlight this one:



Since 1971, the percentage of women who are sole bread winners has more than tripled, from 2 percent to 7 percent. We also know that many, many women now make more than their husbands.

AI Overview

In the context of the study of societal collapse, the "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" is a concept that describes a stage where a civilization is struggling to sustain its existence and address accumulating problems but is not yet in full collapse.

Key aspects of a maintenance phase in a declining civilization:

Focus on Preservation: Instead of growth and expansion, the primary focus shifts to maintaining existing systems and infrastructure, sometimes to the detriment of needed innovation or adaptation.
Declining Returns on Investment: According to theories like those of Joseph Tainter, as societies become more complex, the benefits derived from increasing complexity may diminish, leading to a state where the costs of maintaining that complexity outweigh the benefits.
Vulnerability to Collapse: At this stage, a society becomes increasingly susceptible to collapse, as the resources and energy required for maintenance may become unsustainable, leaving it vulnerable to internal or external shocks.

Examples from History:

The Mayan Civilization: Some scholars argue that the Classic Maya, while often presented as an example of collapse, experienced a period of reorganization where the political system of Divine Kingship was removed in certain areas, but their culture and language persisted.
The Greenland Norse: These colonists invested heavily in inner-fjord pastures and oversized stone churches, a focus on maintaining their current way of life that, according to some interpretations, hampered their ability to adapt to changing conditions and potentially survive.
The Khmer Empire: This empire, which flourished for centuries, was eventually affected by drought and violent monsoon rains, against a backdrop of a changing climate.

Theories of Societal Collapse:

Complexity Theory (Joseph Tainter): Suggests that societies collapse due to the unsustainable costs of increasing internal complexity.
Five Stages of Empire Model (David Murrin): Describes the stages of empire, including a "decline and legacy" stage where the spending required for maintenance decreases dramatically.
Jared Diamond's Factors: Identifies factors like environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, and withdrawal of support from friendly neighbors as contributing to societal collapse.
General Systems Collapse Theory: Posits that societal collapse results from societal complexity exceeding a sustainable level.
Malthusian Theory: Suggests that population growth can outpace food production, leading to resource scarcity and societal instability.

In essence, the maintenance phase signifies a crucial point in a civilization's trajectory where the balance between maintenance and sustainability becomes a key factor in its future.

AI responses may include mistakes.

Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 12:39 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 11:18 pm
Recently, I searched on google for "maintenance phase of a declining civilization" - you know I've used that phrase numerous times.

Today's results are different:

The generational cycle could have a biological basis.

But plenty of studies show that anxiety is heritable, meaning that trauma felt by a parent can create a biological imprint in offspring. There’s an evolutionary argument for it—if mom experiences tough times, she’ll pass down that information via subtle genetic changes so that her child is better prepared for the outside world. Some of these changes happen in the womb if the mother goes through a stressful or traumatic event during pregnancy, but what about trauma that occurs before fertilization?

Here’s Virginia Hughes, reporting for National Geographic.

Traumatic experiences can actually work themselves into the germ line. When a male mouse becomes afraid of a specific smell, this fear is somehow transmitted into his sperm, the study found. His pups will also be afraid of the odor, and will pass that fear down to their pups.

Hughes learned of the study, which has yet to be published, in a talk at the Society for Neuroscience annual meeting. There, two Emory University researchers, Brian Dias, Ph.D., and Kerry Ressler, M.D., Ph.D., presented their findings. Dias and Ressler taught mice to be afraid of a certain fragrance, acetophenone, by shocking them every time they caught a whiff. Over time, the mice experienced small changes in their brains and even a rearrangement of the neurons in their noses to cope with this new stress in the environment.

Then, 10 days after the “startle” response was fully ingrained, the researchers allowed one group of the mice to mate while the another was artificially inseminated. In both groups, the offspring were startled by the smell, even without the shock training. The epigenetic changes appeared to occur before fertilization.

These results haven’t been without controversy. After Hughes’s article was published, other scientists weighed in on Twitter. She put together an excellent summary of the virtual conversation.

It’s still unclear how changes in the brain could lead to changes in the sperm.

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue May 27, 2025 12:45 am Which reminded me, several weeks ago, I had thrown out a couple ideas for how the tech bros could be self-sufficient in food in their walled off planned communities (not that I'm saying Bill Gates is one of the "tech bros"). After commenting about that, I realized I had forgotten an obvious go-to that the tech bros might consider. Several years ago, I had read about how Driscoll's was going to or was growing strawberries in a multi-story building in Virginia. That kind of thing would seem very attractive to the tech bros, I'm guessing.

Bloomberg
Bezos-Backed Farm Startup in Talks for More Than 90% Value Cut

Saijel Kishan and Kate Clark
January 3, 2025 3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Plenty Unlimited Inc., a pioneer of vertical farming that’s drawn backing from billionaires including Jeff Bezos, is in talks for a new funding round that will virtually wipe out existing stockholders, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Plenty, which has brought in almost $1 billion from investors like Eric Schmidt and SoftBank Group Corp., is in talks to raise another $125 million as part of the recapitalization, according to people familiar with the matter. The new deal would value the company’s existing shares at less than $15 million, one person said. Previously, investors had valued Plenty at $1.9 billion, according to PitchBook.

The company declined to comment on the deal.

In recent weeks, Plenty has installed an interim chief executive officer after the exit of Arama Kukutai, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The new acting CEO is Daniel Malech, previously the company’s senior vice president of strategy and general counsel.

At the same time, the company is undergoing a broader strategy shift. Instead of growing a variety of fruits and vegetables, Plenty will focus on strawberries, which yield higher profits.

Kukutai and Malech did not respond to requests for comment.

New York investment firm One Madison Group is expected to lead the new financing. SoftBank’s Vision Fund, a longtime Plenty investor that’s funneled over $400 million into the company, is also in talks to participate, said the people, as is Walmart Inc. The financing is not yet completed and could still fall apart, they added.

SoftBank and Walmart declined to comment. One Madison Group did not respond to requests for comment.

Plenty’s shifting strategy reflects larger struggles for the once-promising indoor farming industry. The news comes just months after Bowery Farming, previously valued at $2.3 billion, halted operations, according to reports. Before that, companies including AeroFarms, Kalera and AppHarvest all filed for bankruptcy.