by OLD1953 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:41 am
Everything in the Israel arena is obsolete, except weapons. Those are pretty much up to date on Israel's side, not so much on the side of Palestine, but that will change after they are a recognized nation. Suppose they all meld together, forswear violence, recognize Israel and become a state. And then they start building a "security force" and that security force's job is to flat stop all Israeli incursion into their country? And Israel kills a bunch of them, and they declare this to be an act of war and ask for UN support against an agressor state. What then? Right now, they'd have support from most of Europe and Russia and quite a few other places.
Reflecting on the finance forum, now there is some discussion as to whether or not Bernake has managed to derail the collapse into inflation. Some time back, I suspected such a thing was happening, and was considering getting into the market, but didn't. Glad I didn't, as the dot com bubble burst about a month later.
And speaking of bubbles, I ran across this today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver ... genumber=1
Which contains the lovely quote:
**************
“They’re all going to correct very sharply this summer,” he said, referring also to industrial metals such as copper, which he said faces an inventory glut because of stockpiling by China, its biggest buyer.
He thinks silver especially is in a classic mania. I agree.
***************
I too agree. When the commodity bubble breaks, probably this summer, the fallout will work its way through the economy and be utterly devastating a few months later due to falling sales and subsequent layoffs.
I THINK redwood will likely be an early indicator of the drop in all commodities, but that is just my opinion due to who the buyers are.
(well, the original here was a major goof, let me try again! haven't found just a redwood chart, so here's lumber overall.)
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/marketquotes/ ... sel=Lumber
Something I believe in is the conservation of risk. If risk is assumed by a third party, it actually will remain the same or increase, in that view. Given that risk in stock/bonds has been reduced to near zero by government actions worldwide, that risk does not disappear, it simply shifts. I think it's shifted to commodities. This is simply reflecting the fact that risky investments are always present, and the willingness to accept that risk will not change until something happens to make those who are accustomed to accepting the risk unwilling to accept it. This doesn't mean risky investments aren't there any more, just that few will assume the risk.
This is interesting as a demographic trend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/usa-wi ... inginsightEverything in the Israel arena is obsolete, except weapons. Those are pretty much up to date on Israel's side, not so much on the side of Palestine, but that will change after they are a recognized nation. Suppose they all meld together, forswear violence, recognize Israel and become a state. And then they start building a "security force" and that security force's job is to flat stop all Israeli incursion into their country? And Israel kills a bunch of them, and they declare this to be an act of war and ask for UN support against an agressor state. What then? Right now, they'd have support from most of Europe and Russia and quite a few other places.
Reflecting on the finance forum, now there is some discussion as to whether or not Bernake has managed to derail the collapse into inflation. Some time back, I suspected such a thing was happening, and was considering getting into the market, but didn't. Glad I didn't, as the dot com bubble burst about a month later.
And speaking of bubbles, I ran across this today:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-fever-is-about-to-break-and-break-badly-2011-04-29?pagenumber=1
Which contains the lovely quote:
**************
“They’re all going to correct very sharply this summer,” he said, referring also to industrial metals such as copper, which he said faces an inventory glut because of stockpiling by China, its biggest buyer.
He thinks silver especially is in a classic mania. I agree.
***************
I too agree. When the commodity bubble breaks, probably this summer, the fallout will work its way through the economy and be utterly devastating a few months later due to falling sales and subsequent layoffs.
I THINK redwood will likely be an early indicator of the drop in all commodities, but that is just my opinion due to who the buyers are.
(well, the original here was a major goof, let me try again! haven't found just a redwood chart, so here's lumber overall.)
http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/marketquotes/quickquote.php?sel=Lumber
Something I believe in is the conservation of risk. If risk is assumed by a third party, it actually will remain the same or increase, in that view. Given that risk in stock/bonds has been reduced to near zero by government actions worldwide, that risk does not disappear, it simply shifts. I think it's shifted to commodities. This is simply reflecting the fact that risky investments are always present, and the willingness to accept that risk will not change until something happens to make those who are accustomed to accepting the risk unwilling to accept it. This doesn't mean risky investments aren't there any more, just that few will assume the risk.
This is interesting as a demographic trend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/usa-will-be-especially-youthful-in-2020-2011-04-29?link=MW_story_investinginsight