Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Trevor wrote: Sun Dec 07, 2025 6:02 pm This doesn't necessarily have to play out the way the two previous world wars did. It'd depend on the circumstances. If China launches a Pearl-Harbor style attack, then yes, we'd be out for blood with China falling into nationalistic fervor.

Trevor wrote: Sun Dec 07, 2025 6:02 pm If things break out in the South China Sea over miscalculation, rather than a mass assault that galvinzes both sides, our public isn't likely to have much enthusiasm for the war. Yes, we'd mobilize and build up to some degree, but we're spending far more on a social safety net than was the case in 1940 and certainly 1914. Unless the conflict is seen as a matter of survival, people won't tolerate it being dismantled, and to fight a total war, this would be a necessity. Europe's found mobilization impossible for this reason and if we fight China for unclear reasons... people might sign up to fight regardless because they have no other way to support themselves, but this is a poor long-term motivation. This is also a dynamic that could lead to civil war.

Trevor wrote: Sat Dec 06, 2025 6:53 pm Despite hopes to the contrary, Putin is not going to stop so long as there's a single breath in his body. So long as he's in power, he's going to keep pushing. Russia's burned through its Soviet stockpiles, often reduced to launching attacks with motorcycles and civilian vehicles. There are few operational tanks on the front, and their industry isn't going to be able to replace these losses for a decade. Desertion's a major problem for both armies, but Russia has the population to spare.

Still, if he can annex Ukraine's territory, he'll be able to replace his losses with new cannon fodder. Russia's already doing this in the parts of Ukraine they do occupy. Europe would need a massive shock to rearm in any significant way and we've washed our hands of the whole thing. For all their words, Europe isn't as pro-Ukraine as they'd have us believe. They're running low on equipment to send and it's politically impossible to increase production at more than a snail's pace.

While I hope they can win, I do think Ukraine is likely to collapse at some point. You've got a couple hundred thousand dead, perhaps half a million irrecoverable losses, which is unsustainable for a country with collapsing demographics. It looks like a stalemate... until it suddenly doesn't.

Trevor wrote: Sat Dec 06, 2025 6:53 pm Frankly, I don't care what "legitimate points" you might think the likes of Nick Fuentes has. This is someone who admires Hitler, admires Stalin, spews racial hatred to an audience of million, and is an open misogynist. He was nobody 5 years ago, but now he's become one of the leading figures of the conservative movement. I'm not a believer that the arc of history always bends in one direction. White supremacists have learned that the more they mainstream, the more effective their message is.

Trevor wrote: Sat Dec 06, 2025 6:53 pm Until 2020, I would have considered the left the greatest threat, but since January 6, the right's taken that spot. When it comes to immigration, they don't care whether it's legal or not; they oppose it, period, especially from "third world shitholes" (I.E. non-white countries)

FullMoon wrote: Wed Nov 26, 2025 1:00 pm Ukraine people learned too late the reason for the destruction of their country. Now they don't want to die for the purpose that isn't their own.
America first was a hollow slogan obviously and hopefully not too many of people must also die for the benefit of those who profit from their sacrifice. WAR IS A RACKET. That's a good book that apparently never took hold. The greatest book also had fundamental lessons that most don't embody or embrace.

WAR GENERATION We must prepare for scale of war our grandparents endured, Nato chief chillingly warns…as he reveals Putin’s next target

China would destroy US military in fight over Taiwan, top secret document warns

Beijing’s hypersonic missiles ‘could sink US aircraft carriers within minutes’

China would defeat the US military in a war over Taiwan, according to a top-secret US government assessment.

US reliance on costly, sophisticated weapons leaves it exposed to China’s ability to mass-produce cheaper systems in overwhelming numbers, the highly classified “Overmatch Brief” warns.

A national security official under Joe Biden who reviewed the document is said to have turned pale on realising Beijing had “redundancy after redundancy” for “every trick we had up our sleeve”, The New York Times reported.

Losing Taiwan, the US’s key bulwark against Chinese power in the western Pacific, would deliver a severe strategic and symbolic blow to Washington.

The country’s most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford – recently sent to the Caribbean for Donald Trump’s crackdown on drug traffickers – is often destroyed in the wargames outlined in the brief.

our public isn't likely to have much enthusiasm for the war. Yes

FullMoon wrote: Wed Nov 26, 2025 1:00 pmWAR IS A RACKET. That's a good book that apparently never took hold. The greatest book also had fundamental lessons that most don't embody or embrace.

Navigator wrote: Tue Nov 25, 2025 12:36 pm Good info on the Ukrainian desertion rate. I know that a couple of months ago, when the Russians seemed to have created a breakthrough near Pokrovsk, the Ukrainians had to admit that their trenches in the area were barely manned. Defensive wars, like WW1, look like they are static for a long time, and then suddenly they are not (as 1 side runs out of ammunition, manpower, or both). Hopefully this doesn't happen to Ukraine, but it might. Maybe this is why Putin is hanging in there.

No argument on your take on Europe. The most concerning thing is the lack of willpower. Outside of a few countries (like Poland and Finland), most have little stomach for defending themselves.