Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Sep 09, 2026 5:39 pm

The previous post with the mentioning of the gold window being closed and the unleashing of opaque investment products which resulted as a consequence - at the same time the US entered the maintenance phase of a declining civilization on or around 1971 - got me to thinking about other things that were unleashed previously and accelerated around that time. For example, the production and dumping of plastics, pesticides, degradation of soils, offshoring of US manufacturing, and other things that have been mentioned separately here but may have been at least partially a consequence of the gold window being shut. That leads to a concept known as the great acceleration, which is something I only vaguely recall reading about. My question to AI then became: When did the negative effects of the great acceleration start to outweigh the positive effects?

As a caveat, since this isn't something I'm intimately familiar with, I can't comment on the conclusions of AI but the fact-based reporting of the conclusions of others that it uncovered might be useful as a starting point, and that is what most of its response was about.
When did the negative effects of the great acceleration start to outweigh the positive effects?

AI Overview

From an Earth System science and ecological economics perspective, the negative planetary impacts of the Great Acceleration are generally argued to have begun seriously overtaking its socioeconomic benefits between 1970 and 1980.

While the Great Acceleration dramatically elevated global living standards, life expectancy, and wealth starting in 1950, several historical and environmental thresholds indicate that the scales tipped later in the 20th century:

The Ecological Footprint Crossing (c. 1970s): According to data from the Global Footprint Network, the mid-1970s was the precise point where humanity’s total ecological footprint surpassed the Earth's annual biocapacity. At this moment, human consumption moved into an ongoing "ecological deficit."

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) Peak (c. 1978): Economists use the GPI to measure economic growth adjusted for environmental degradation, pollution, and social costs. Studies consistently show that while global GDP per capita continued to surge throughout the 20th century, global GPI peaked and began to permanently decline around 1978, indicating that further economic expansion started costing society more than it produced.

Fossil Fuel Emissions Dominance (1978): Prior to the late 1970s, the majority of historical man-made carbon emissions came from land-use changes like agriculture. In 1978, cumulative emissions from burning fossil fuels officially surpassed land-use emissions, solidifying a trajectory of rapid climate destabilization.

The "Danger Zone" Inflection (1980s): By the 1980s, the delayed feedback loops of the post-WWII boom manifested as undeniable global crises, such as the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole and a sharp, continuous upward shift in mean global temperatures.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Wed Sep 09, 2026 12:09 pm

First, though, I need to say a few more words about Jim Sinclair since it ties in with dark age theory.

Jim Sinclair is a descendant of the family that ran the House of Seligman, which was one of the main banking houses in America along with the House of Morgan, the House of Rothschild, Jay Cooke and a few others. These were among the major US banking houses of the 1800s and early 1900s. Sinclair's father was an associate of the legendary trader Jesse Livermore and Sinclair himself helped unwind the Hunt Brothers' silver position when they ran into trouble, as well as working with other well known traders.

In dark age theory, I've said many times that late 2011 represented a cut point where the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bankers established the certainty of a new dark age by their actions. I also said that the descent into a new dark age could potentially be milder than a normal non dark age crisis period because more would be borrowed from the future to forestall the collapse. At this point, I would be remiss not to say that many other things I predicted were wrong or at best early. Which gets back to the main reasons for this post.

The banking houses mentioned were most powerful when Western Civilization was on the steep ascent. This I would estimate to be from the 1800s until approximately 1914. After that, until about 1973 let's say, there was sort of a topping process in Western Civilization where some aspects were getting better and some worse. For what was getting worse, for example, Barbara Tuchman discussed some of that in The Proud Tower and I've linked to an interview from her many years ago in a different area of this forum.

So 1914 was the start of World War I and 1973 was the Arab oil embargo. I used those 2 dates instead of my usual 1971 to illustrate something. Just prior to those 2 dates something important happened in banking. In 1913 the Federal Reserve was created and in 1971 the international gold window was shut. During that time period, the baton was passed from the old banking houses to the Federal Reserve and the modern banking houses such as Goldman Sachs.

During the passing of this baton and after, many have speculated that the power of the old banking houses remained but it was secret and went underground. This power does not remain. The heirs have remained and their power has dissipated little by little. Jim Sinclair was one of those heirs.

After 1971, Western Civilization transitioned into the maintenance phase. During the maintenance phase there was a slow decline but at the same time there were a lot of resources that were in reserve that could be used to help prop things up. For example, the middle class only needed one job at 40 hours per week to support a family in 1971. During the maintenance phase, the hours required to support a middle class family at the same level as in 1971 were increased to approximately 120. All the while, this increase was sold as a good thing, for example, by saying that women were now "liberated".

Getting back to the descendants of the banking houses that ruled the world during the ascent of Western Civilization, throughout both of these time periods of 1913 to 1971 and 1971 to 2011, I think the heirs could fairly well understand economic and investment cycles. Despite the fact that the afore-mentioned phase changes took away their ruling power and transferred it to the managerial class, they were still able to navigate in this environment, albeit not at the center of it.

But during the transition that happened in 2011 or thereabouts, you will find a whole lot of untimely predictions from Jim Sinclair. He said the dollar would crash. He said the world financial system was on the brink of collapse. I would put forth that Jim didn't suddenly get addicted to drugs, end up with Alzheimer's, or something similar to that. What happened was the world transitioned into a new dark age and Jim and the other descendants of the banking houses that used to rule the world lost their bearings. What they were taught about market timing and what worked in markets by their fathers and grandfathers no longer worked.

Also, of the remnants of the Rothschilds who remain in financial businesses, they operate on a small scale, eschewing modern complex financial instruments. After the 2008 debacle, one of them commented that not much happened to their investments because they don't get involved in opaque investments, or something to that effect. By small, I mean small on the scale of Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, or some of the other high tech and investment titans, but not small by our standards. The big money is now in high tech and the intersection of high tech and finance, and the remnants of the old banking families don't operate there.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Wed Sep 09, 2026 11:37 am

The complexity is real as the efforts to control since they do not value Life as we understand it in
other areas. I seen a list as valid as they implode zones to get control and feed off what can survive.
They know exactly what and how to destroy minds. The middle kingdom is utilizing a control measure
to assert and shore up the insurance sector survival and we understand that move here. I regard your incremental study
as we cover more than some and a lot more than many. Best regards in this Hour we are in.
The profligate waste we witness is not to be underestimated as they dilute the Letter and the Book
to the Harbingers events that are as real as the indifference and vapid disregard that brings it.
Chaos Agents and their Brokers are as real as the Apathy that supports it.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 08, 2026 3:29 pm

My critique over the past 24 hours of certain things AI has put forth reminded me that I still need to address this. I'm going to make a serious attempt to address it. AI failed at it and even though hundred of posts here are my own, it is still difficult.
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2026 1:37 am From Google AI:
Do Samo Burja and Higgenbotham from Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel share a similar view regarding the end of industrial civilization and the fact that an information age has not happened?

Yes, Samo Burja and the anonymous intellectual behind Dark Age Hovel (often associated with traditionalist, neo-reactionary, or "bronze age" critiques) share striking alignment in their diagnoses. Both argue that the Industrial Revolution essentially stopped before completion and that we have not entered an information age.

Both thinkers share the view that our current society is stagnant rather than progressing.

The End of Industrial Civilization

Samo Burja: The sociologist and founder of Bismarck Analysis argues in his essay, The End of Industrial Society, that industrialization exhausted its social innovations before completing the transformation of society. He contends that we are living in the lingering, entropic aftermath of a halted Industrial Revolution, marked by lost foundational knowledge.

Dark Age Hovel: The author of Dark Age Hovel shares this perspective, viewing our contemporary era as a late-stage industrial society where technological momentum is stalling and civilization is degrading or in "slow collapse" .

The Myth of the Information Age

Samo Burja: Burja directly challenges the idea that we live in a novel "Information Age." He notes that current digital infrastructure and the "Internet of Things" have failed to introduce the fundamentally new "social technologies" required to elevate civilization beyond the Industrial era.

Dark Age Hovel: This author similarly critiques modern tech, viewing digital devices and the internet as surface-level symptoms of a deeply stagnant system rather than a true leap into a new historical epoch.

Both conclude that instead of moving forward, we are living in a "post-industrial" trap, where institutional decay prevents us from capitalizing on the raw technological power we inherited from the past.
AI has its limitations as demonstrated. Though I do believe that Burja comes closer than anyone I've run across to articulating the same reasons this is not an information age, why it's not, and what would generally be required to get to an information age.
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2026 3:39 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2026 1:37 am AI has its limitations as demonstrated.
aedens wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2026 10:44 am The caparison to H is the most sincere laughter I have had in well way over two decades.
I'm planning to summarize the answer to the question based on what's been written in the Dark Age Hovel.

Part of the limitation with AI is that since the world operates at the 97th percentile and that's where AI draws its information from and spits it back out it's difficult for it to advance beyond that level in many instances because it's unable to distinguish. Another part of the limitation seems to be that AI is unable to synthesize complex information and summarize it at any level.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 08, 2026 1:05 pm

Unfortunately, Jim Sinclair is deceased now, but I am keying in on this statement from 2012:

"Only massive debt write downs and debt forgiveness and a form of global debt jubilee can prevent a collapse of the financial system and a deep global depression."

We know that psychopathic control systems are stupid and brittle. Typically, though, when they exhaust all other alternatives they will do what they need to do to save their own asses because their own asses are all psychopaths care about, not yours or mine.

What does that mean? Well, what it means is that GDP gets cut by 2/3 and the stock market falls (as much as) 98%.

The psychopaths who control the system won't dial that extent in when they start the process.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 08, 2026 12:59 pm

He has done it again! The man who earned the nickname "Mr. Gold" after precisely calling the top of gold's previous bull market back in 1980, has just accomplished a feat that easily secures his legacy as the greatest precious-metals investor of our time.

Back in 2001, just as gold was recording a multidecade low beneath $300 per ounce, and the ancient monetary metal had been thoroughly outcast from the consciousness of financial markets, Jim Sinclair made an incredibly bold prediction. He forecast a powerful bull market for gold that would bring the price to at least $1,650 per ounce, implying about a six-fold increase from its price at the time.
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/ ... -guru.aspx

August 4, 2011

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 08, 2026 12:52 pm

James Sinclair got our minds off the food and back to reality. A highly respected Wall Street analyst, Sinclair warned of the major cycles in the markets—which suggest a major downturn from early 1981 until late 1982. Then he sees the cycles gathering major support for a huge upward trend.
https://reason.com/1981/06/01/gold-bug-gumbo/

June 1, 1981

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 08, 2026 12:48 pm

While yesterday’s high flyers are out of fashion, traditional investments like bonds, stocks and even bank accounts are back in favor. Many financial advisers suggest that their clients look at bonds. Says James Sinclair, a onetime gold bug: “The next big play out there is not gold, but Treasury bills and bonds.” By buying an AAA-rated corporate bond issued by a blue-chip company like American Telephone & Telegraph or International Business Machines, an investor can count on making 14% on his money for ten years or more. If inflation stays at about 5%, that represents a good return. Some moneymen recommend buying U.S. Government bonds. Although they pay only 13%, the securities are practically risk free and, unlike corporate bonds, hold no danger that the Government will decide to redeem them early if interest rates decline quickly.
https://time.com/archive/6699201/from-b ... lue-chips/

May 23, 1982

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Sep 08, 2026 12:45 pm

In the Dark Age Hovel, I recently mentioned Gary North from the 1980s.

However, to make that mention truly relevant, we need to put out the names Harry Browne and Jim Sinclair. Both are now deceased also.

Today though I want to highlight Jim Sinclair. This is the Jim Sinclair from Sinclair and Company and also Mineset as well as others. Sinclair was perhaps the best gold investor of our time. He called the 1980 top to the day, selling his entire position and reaping millions, the long term rise in bonds in the early 1980s and the 2001 low in gold. At the time he called the 2001 low in gold, he called for a 6 fold rise in gold to $1,650 by 2011. All well and good.

What I want to highlight though is what he got "wrong" or may have just been early on. Here is what he said in 2012:
‘The End Is Not Near, It Is Here and Now’ – Gold Legend Sinclair

Veteran and respected gold and silver trader and a former adviser to the Hunt Brothers in the silver market in 1980, Jim Sinclair is now warning on his website,http://www.jsmineset.com/ that ‘The end is not near, it is here and now’ in reference to the global financial system.

He is also reiterating his long held view that there will be “QE to infinity” despite the denials of Bernanke and other central bankers.

Sinclair believes that gold and silver will surge in value very soon and much sooner than most are currently forecasting.

Mr Sinclair disagrees with George Soros , who accumulated gold aggressively in Q1 2012, who recently said that the euro has three months to sort itself out. He thinks the euro, in its current form, will be lucky to survive three weeks.

He believes that after a couple of years of crises in the euro zone, market commentators and investors may have become desensitised to bad news and are in danger of missing the real denouement when it is actually about to happen.

The Greek election on June 17 is only 11 days away and is an obvious flash point ahead. Meeting after meeting of European leaders does not seem to be getting anywhere.

Nobody really seems to have a handle on the situation and a realisation that this is a global debt crisis and not a regional “euro debt crisis”.

Only massive debt write downs and debt forgiveness and a form of global debt jubilee can prevent a collapse of the financial system and a deep global depression.

Mr. Sinclair has a good track record. He predicted back in the early 2000’s with gold below $300 an ounce that gold would reach $1,650 within a decade. Now he is talking about “quantitative easing to the moon” and a similar trajectory for gold and silver prices.
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-end ... air-2012-6

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Tue Sep 08, 2026 11:37 am

I can provide a exact date when they merged into that rendition as indicated.
Our Division in Medical was absorbed as a buy out since they know the sector better
and they serve one protocol. Your just a asset to be allocated. Cold brutal and deranged systems.
That model changed around the time it was stated if change outside is faster than
the inside that unit is doomed.

That was learned long ago in 585 BC also when the Greek army poisoned the water supply
to the city of Kirra by crushed hellebore leaves.

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants <--------------
7. see step one

What transpired after this is a matter of debate: the earliest, and therefore probably most reliable, account is that of the medical writer Thessalos.
He wrote, in the 5th century BC, that the attackers discovered a secret water-pipe leading into the city after it was broken by a horse's hoof.
An asclepiad named Nebros advised the allies to poison the water with hellebore which soon rendered the defenders so weak with diarrhea that they were unable to resist the assault. Kirrha was captured and the entire population was slaughtered was told.
Nebros was considered an ancestor of Hippocrates, so this story has caused many to wonder whether it might not have been guilt over his ancestor's use of poison that ended Kirrha. One view it was the cause of Hippocrates to establish the Hippocratic Oath.

Aa a port city controlling the coastal approach to Delphi, reportedly abused its position by levying unfair tolls and taxes on pilgrims traveling to the sanctuary.
This was seen as an offense against the sanctuary's sacred status and the right of worshippers to freely access it.

While the financial exploitation was the primary grievance, the conflict was also fueled by the political ambitions of the neighboring city of Delphi and other members of the Amphictyonic League, who sought to remove Kirrha's control over the region to ensure the sanctuary remained independent and accessible. The resulting First Sacred War ended with the complete destruction of Kirrha and the seizure of its territory.

We got told the investment industry, like it or not, is about to shift away from the brain-dead investing non-processes of passive and algorithm (black box) trading back toward a thoughtful, value-oriented, common-sense approach.

Dear Muppets. Beware Bankers. Ask Lincoln.

קהל denotes a distinguishing sound rather than specifically a human voice is demonstrated by its use to describe the bleating of sheep.

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