by Marc » Sun Dec 11, 2011 5:00 pm
Hi, Jullien,
From what I have seen written and have observed so far, I would have to agree with you. I do think that nations can "culturally evolve" to where warfare between them is highly unlikely; the chances of a war in the near future between the UK and France is perhaps only marginally higher than a war in the near future between, say, the USA and Canada. I would think that there would have to be something such as an absolutely enormous infusion of people into the UK and/or France, who either never shed anti-Western sentiments or who come to cultivate such sentiments, for there to be a really significant chance of warfare in the future between the two countries. As for the present and growing friction between the strong Northern European countries and the teetering peripheral European (or other European) countries, there may be a ton of vitriol between them presently and for several years to come, but bailouts, backstops, and some degree of economic depression seems likely to replace the outcome of a nasty intra-European war in the near future, in my opinion.
Warfare between nations is usually only really likely, I feel, when you have powerful undemocratic nations, or when you have tribal/ethnic factions where at least one or some of them really hate one or more of the other factions. And, this brings up an interesting point in how Fourth Turnings in the future may play out: if hundreds of years from now, through ongoing and future cultural tempering, if there are no "external enemies" to readily cause wars, what might cause the climax of such Fourth Turnings? Economic collapse crowned by nasty civil unrest that's generally short of civil war? But, maybe there will always be at least a few tribal/ethnic factions around which hate other factions, thus making external warfare very significantly possible for as long as there are humans on this planet.
Thanks again for the valuable European perspective, and for others' valuable thoughts as well. —Best regards, Marc
Hi, Jullien,
From what I have seen written and have observed so far, I would have to agree with you. I do think that nations can "culturally evolve" to where warfare between them is highly unlikely; the chances of a war in the near future between the UK and France is perhaps only marginally higher than a war in the near future between, say, the USA and Canada. I would think that there would have to be something such as an absolutely enormous infusion of people into the UK and/or France, who either never shed anti-Western sentiments or who come to cultivate such sentiments, for there to be a really significant chance of warfare in the future between the two countries. As for the present and growing friction between the strong Northern European countries and the teetering peripheral European (or other European) countries, there may be a ton of vitriol between them presently and for several years to come, but bailouts, backstops, and some degree of economic depression seems likely to replace the outcome of a nasty intra-European war in the near future, in my opinion.
Warfare between nations is usually only really likely, I feel, when you have powerful undemocratic nations, or when you have tribal/ethnic factions where at least one or some of them really hate one or more of the other factions. And, this brings up an interesting point in how Fourth Turnings in the future may play out: if hundreds of years from now, through ongoing and future cultural tempering, if there are no "external enemies" to readily cause wars, what might cause the climax of such Fourth Turnings? Economic collapse crowned by nasty civil unrest that's generally short of civil war? But, maybe there will always be at least a few tribal/ethnic factions around which hate other factions, thus making external warfare very significantly possible for as long as there are humans on this planet.
Thanks again for the valuable European perspective, and for others' valuable thoughts as well. —Best regards, Marc