by Guest » Wed Mar 05, 2014 3:45 am
What the last few days have shown is how weak Russia's economy really is. Spring is here, the need (regardless of current demand) for natural gas will drop sharply as the weather warms up. I think threats from the US still carry weight. I wouldn't declare America completely dead, yet. Russia is still a train wreck.
I wouldn't consider Russia's control of the Crimea complete. 45% of the population is non-Russian, and most of those people do not want to be part of fascist Russia. Add to that 300,000 Crimean Tatars arming themselves inside the Crimea along with dozens of Ukrainian military posts that refuse to surrender, and you can see that Russia still has a lot to worry about.
Russia's army is weak. It is obsolete, poorly trained, badly feed, and poorly lead. NATO could easily jam their communications. NATO could supply, or "allow" weapons to flow across Ukraine's vast borders. The Russians could see their air force devastated by shoulder fired missiles. The Chechens only had two Strelas, and they shot down two Russian combat aircraft. A ground war would be costly to the Russians.
Wild cards: The Kavkaz explodes. What will Russia do then? Send Russian troops to all of the Republics in the North Kavkaz?
The oil pipelines are destroyed in the Crimea-good luck getting oil to Europe. The oil revenues will go to.
Russia's fragile (yes, fragile) economy implodes.
Foreign volunteers: Yes, they will flood into Ukraine (for their own varied reasons and from a myriad of countries), but I expect thousands (if not more than that) to join the fray. Think Syria in Europe.
Putin's intercontinental missile test was a sign of fear and weakness.
What the last few days have shown is how weak Russia's economy really is. Spring is here, the need (regardless of current demand) for natural gas will drop sharply as the weather warms up. I think threats from the US still carry weight. I wouldn't declare America completely dead, yet. Russia is still a train wreck.
I wouldn't consider Russia's control of the Crimea complete. 45% of the population is non-Russian, and most of those people do not want to be part of fascist Russia. Add to that 300,000 Crimean Tatars arming themselves inside the Crimea along with dozens of Ukrainian military posts that refuse to surrender, and you can see that Russia still has a lot to worry about.
Russia's army is weak. It is obsolete, poorly trained, badly feed, and poorly lead. NATO could easily jam their communications. NATO could supply, or "allow" weapons to flow across Ukraine's vast borders. The Russians could see their air force devastated by shoulder fired missiles. The Chechens [b]only[/b] had two Strelas, and they shot down two Russian combat aircraft. A ground war would be costly to the Russians.
Wild cards: The Kavkaz explodes. What will Russia do then? Send Russian troops to all of the Republics in the North Kavkaz?
The oil pipelines are destroyed in the Crimea-good luck getting oil to Europe. The oil revenues will go to.
Russia's fragile (yes, fragile) economy implodes.
Foreign volunteers: Yes, they will flood into Ukraine (for their own varied reasons and from a myriad of countries), but I expect thousands (if not more than that) to join the fray. Think Syria in Europe.
[b][b]Putin's intercontinental missile test was a sign of fear and weakness. [/b][/b]