by John » Sun May 01, 2016 4:42 pm
MarvyGuy wrote:
> Lowy latest on China. BIG report. I suppose take away is China can
> now let US escalate through FON exercises as they "drag feet"
> while continuing militarization and possibly laying of hydrophone
> network to detect subs. Subs will probably be the only things
> "safe" once the hypesonic delivery systems are deployed in large
> numbers.
>
http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publicatio ... e-security
Lowy wrote:
> International concern over China’s assertive island-building
> campaign in the South China Sea overlooks a broader shift in its
> maritime security conduct. Chinese naval and coastguard forces are
> taking fewer tactical risks than a few years ago. Beijing now
> advocates confidence-building measures that until recently it had
> refused to consider. These developments are helping to lower the
> risks of maritime incidents, miscalculations, and accidental
> conflict. However, they are also facilitating China’s increasingly
> ‘passive assertive’ challenges to Asia’s maritime status quo —
> notably, its creation and militarisation of disputed islands, its
> establishment of new zones of military authority, and its conduct
> of expansive patrols in the East and South China Seas. While these
> actions are not tactically dangerous, they represent a long-term
> strategic challenge to the regional order. Other countries must
> assume a degree of cost and risk to push back against China’s
> passive assertiveness. Yet, a prudent balance must be struck
> between signalling tactical resolve and pursuing indirect
> strategies to shape Chinese behaviour in ways that minimise the
> risks of escalation. This requires a multidimensional,
> coordinated, and international effort to impose costs on Beijing,
> and offer incentives, linked to its reputational, strategic, and
> economic interests.
Lowy almost always takes the Neville Chamberlain view of Chinese
aggression, probably because otherwise they'd scare their
Australian audience to death.
[quote="MarvyGuy"]
> Lowy latest on China. BIG report. I suppose take away is China can
> now let US escalate through FON exercises as they "drag feet"
> while continuing militarization and possibly laying of hydrophone
> network to detect subs. Subs will probably be the only things
> "safe" once the hypesonic delivery systems are deployed in large
> numbers.
> [url]http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/shifting-waters-chinas-new-passive-assertiveness-asian-maritime-security[/url]
[/quote]
[quote="Lowy"]
> International concern over China’s assertive island-building
> campaign in the South China Sea overlooks a broader shift in its
> maritime security conduct. Chinese naval and coastguard forces are
> taking fewer tactical risks than a few years ago. Beijing now
> advocates confidence-building measures that until recently it had
> refused to consider. These developments are helping to lower the
> risks of maritime incidents, miscalculations, and accidental
> conflict. However, they are also facilitating China’s increasingly
> ‘passive assertive’ challenges to Asia’s maritime status quo —
> notably, its creation and militarisation of disputed islands, its
> establishment of new zones of military authority, and its conduct
> of expansive patrols in the East and South China Seas. While these
> actions are not tactically dangerous, they represent a long-term
> strategic challenge to the regional order. Other countries must
> assume a degree of cost and risk to push back against China’s
> passive assertiveness. Yet, a prudent balance must be struck
> between signalling tactical resolve and pursuing indirect
> strategies to shape Chinese behaviour in ways that minimise the
> risks of escalation. This requires a multidimensional,
> coordinated, and international effort to impose costs on Beijing,
> and offer incentives, linked to its reputational, strategic, and
> economic interests.[/quote]
Lowy almost always takes the Neville Chamberlain view of Chinese
aggression, probably because otherwise they'd scare their
Australian audience to death.