Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John: I agree that are dealing with generational forces that can not be stopped. However, people in power do have an impact. At least Paulson (Bush) were trying to stop the collapse. Maybe they were putting bubblegum in the dam but at least they were trying. Obama and Geithner are either incompeten...

One final thing. I guess you deserve an actual answer to your post. Personally things are likely to be really bad. John has forecast global economic tsunami, clash of civilizations war, world war, use of nuclear weapons. Timing is uncertain of course, but just a mater of when not what will happen. G...

First of all I would separate any forecast into two categories: 1) Estimate of Median or Most probable events. 2) Worst case scenario. One of the lessons I took from "The Black Swan" is that low probability adverse events are difficult to estimate. A better approach is to mitigate against adverse ou...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,491964,00.html "At this point, what we're focusing on is spillover violence," Cesinger told FOXNews.com Thursday. "The immediate concern, if any, would be that." More than 5,300 people were killed in Mexico last year in connection to criminal activity, and some e...

http://www.elpasotimes.com/news/ci_11641299 The Mexican army and heavily armed federal police with a helicopter flying overhead raided a drug warehouse Thursday morning in Juárez even as killings are surging beyond the extraordinary levels of last year. If it isn't a war zone, it would be hard to te...

A recession of biblical proportions Consumers usually build savings in booms, then raid their troves during busts - but not this time. This from http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/02/news/economy/colvin_depression.fortune/index.htm Looks like these "Journalist" are reaching a Generational Dynamics view b...

Gordo, 25 years away from commercial viability?? You have no idea what you are talking about. Suncor is producing oil from Canadian tar sands RIGHT NOW and they have been for years. They produced 228,000 barrels per day in 2008 and expect to produce 300,000 barrels per day in 2009. Their cost per ba...

Your argument that GD2 will be worse than GD1 seems to be based mostly on the peak oil theory - although personally I don't see much if any connection between peak oil and anything happening in the economy recently (last 10 years) or in the near future (next 10 years). Longer term, I don't think pe...

But for the economy as a whole, the direction is downhill, and going faster and faster. When was the last time you heard any significant good news? There'll be upward blips here and there, but I just don't see any upturn. As of this typing the Dow is up (S&P,NASDAQ too). This disconnect between the...

This article was written January 2 and expresses the idea quite well: Therefore it is possible that the energy “break-even” point has been approached or even reached for finding new oil. Whether we have reached this point or not the concept of EROI declining toward 1:1 makes irrelevant the reports ...