Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

IMPORTANT: NEGATIVE DIVERGENCES ARE PILING UP! 1) More and more amateurs have been betting on a lower U.S. dollar and higher gold prices in recent weeks, especially following the media hype about gold's new all-time high, the U.S. dollar index has barely budged over the past month. Every time DXY go...

The global carry trade, in which the U.S. dollar has been sold short on margin in order to purchase equities and commodities on margin, has become dangerously overpopular among hedge funds in recent weeks and is likely to soon unravel in spectacular fashion. The initial response of the financial mar...

The previous greatest sucker's rally in history, play by play. Here's what people were thinking during the "new bull market" of early 1930.

The newspaper quotes from the 1930's could easily be mistaken for today's commentary if you didn't know the dates.

Hey, just checking in. I've been real busy lately doing software development and pet projects... At any rate, this current rally has certainly exceeded my expectations, I thought 40% was likely, which would be similar to the 1930 bounce, but we are now above a 55% bounce. As John I'm sure is sick of...

Short again... 9:50AM Bank of America says 2nd half tougher than 1st (BAC) by Greg Morcroft NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bank of America Chief Executive Ken Lewis said on Friday that profitability in the second half of the year will be much harder to achieve than it was in the first, and that the compa...

John, regarding Roubini, this is to be expected. The most attention grabbing analysts during any cycle will always be most wrong at key turning points. Roubini did his most bearish interview for CNBC on the exact day of the March bottom, and yesterday he was quoted as having shifted strongly toward ...

If you are still long the market, I think the recent rally is a good opportunity to unload. The positive media spin on everything this morning is pretty entertaining. The jobs report is supposedly bullish despite the fact that the actual (unadjusted) number of initial claims was 667,000 which is an ...

Key reversal in the VIX today! This is significant and important.

I still feel bearish, but for what its worth, I closed out most of my positions today. I'll probably be kicking myself a week or two from now... Took profits and closed MBI short. Hedged SRS and SDS with July options (expire in 14 days) to essentially lock in profits. Still have long in nat gas whic...

I'm pretty sure its not inflation adjusted, and then its also comparing apples to oranges, expenses vs. non-expenses. A strange depiction I wouldn't put much value in, all to say what everyone already knows - our government is spending like drunken sailors and also throwing mad money around. i dont ...