Civil War Saeculum

[andrewshernandez7891]

Not sure if this fits here and I apologize if you've already answered this but I was wondering about why the Civil War cycle for America was so short, Xenakis. I'm not sure when the crisis era ended for the Revolutionary cycle but you've stated before that it takes exactly 58 years for the next crisis era to begin so I'm wondering when did the Crisis era for the Civil War start? Because the war started unusually sooner than expected, that meant that the "Reactive" or "X" generation would have to be the foot soldiers in the war, correct? It'd be like if the regeneracy for World War 2 occurred earlier and the Lost Generation would need to be the foot soldiers. I guess my question is two parts: when did the Revolutionary Crisis era end and when did the Civil War Crisis begin? And how long would there need to be between the ending of one cycle and the ending of another for the "Civic" generation to be the foot soldiers in a war and for it to not be abbreviated?

[Bob Butler]

Yes, you caught the "Civil War Anomaly". It has been rehashed often on various Strauss and Howe forums. My own theory is that when you have a big enough problem centering the crisis, it goes off early. Between slavery and the desire for the north to get on with the Industrial Revolution you had two.

My own saying is that "Every four score and seven years there is a new birth of freedom." It increases a little bit as improved medicine increases the expected life time.

[John]

** 22-Jul-2024 World View: The Mexican-American war

Not sure if this fits here and I
apologize if you've already answered
this but I was wondering about why the
Civil War cycle for America was so
short, Xenakis. I'm not sure when the
crisis era ended for the Revolutionary
cycle but you've stated before that it
takes exactly 58 years for the next
crisis era to begin so I'm wondering
when did the Crisis era for the Civil
War start? Because the war started
unusually sooner than expected, that
meant that the "Reactive" or "X"
generation would have to be the foot
soldiers in the war, correct? It'd be
like if the regeneracy for World War 2
occurred earlier and the Lost Generation
would need to be the foot soldiers. I
guess my question is two parts: when did
the Revolutionary Crisis era end and
when did the Civil War Crisis begin? And
how long would there need to be between
the ending of one cycle and the ending
of another for the "Civic" generation to
be the foot soldiers in a war and for it
to not be abbreviated?

The Revolutionary War Crisis Era ended
in 1782 when the British finally
surrendered after losing
the Battle of Yorktown.

The next Crisis Era (Fourth Turning) began
58 years later, in 1840. The next 20
years were politically extremely contentious,
especially with regard to the issue
of slavery. The Civil War only began
in 1861, and ended in 1865, leading to
the next Recovery Era (First Turning).

In 2016, I posted a very interesting
example of how things changed in 1840:

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 750#p32750

The example was the American political attitude
toward Mexico. In 1836, America took a
non-belligent attitude toward Mexico,
with regard to annexating Texas.

Here's what I wrote in 2016:

So the United States
completely reversed policy, becoming
much more belligerent with respect to
Mexico between 1836 and 1844. In 1836,
America avoided war. In 1844, America
was much more nationalistic, ready to
embrace war because of "manifest
destiny." What changed? What changed
was the end of influence of the
preceding Artist generation, and the
rise of the new Nomad generation, and
that's the beginning of America's Fourth
Turning, or Crisis Era.

[andrewshernandez7891]

Thank you for your response! So I guess there was no "Civic" generation for the Civil War since the Nomads were the young adults, correct? If that's the case, how long would it need to be from the end of the war at the previous sauceulum to the end of the next one so that there's no "First Turning Reset" and a guaranteed "Civic" generation?