Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

It was stated in http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... #lab100761 that one can't predict election results, yet Nate Silver did just that. Could it be possible that other short-term events can be predictable as well? And if so, what would that mean with regards to chaos theory?

Weathermen do this all the time, even though weather is chaos driven with climate and seasons acting as chaotic attractors. Ever notice that the forecast for several days away sometimes changes as that day draws closer? It's because the forecasters have identified new factors that have changed the picture, such as a low pressure system moving in an unexpected direction. I could have forecast that Obama would win simply because he has more popularity among the current generation. (i.e. he is an early Gen-Xer in the middle of a crisis era.) That doesn't mean that I've predicted the outcome, only that I have identified strong factors that make one outcome more likely than the others. Chaos could introduce new factors at the last minute that swing the outcome in a totally unexpected direction. For example, would Obama have won if the Benghazi mess had happened in October? We'll never know, but it could have been a chaotic element strong enough to tip the outcome in favor of Romney.

It's exactly what we're seeing now. Our political parties are doing nothing to prepare us for what's coming, chiefly concerned with maintaining and increasing their own power. Anyone who warns that this can't continue or tries to do something is silenced using any means necessary. Meaning when winter does come...