The Dark Ages and Generational Dynamics

[mhrr]

The Dark Ages was a fairly static time period, I would say, although I'm not too knowledgeable about that era. In what ways did the Medieval period experience crisis wars and stuff? In fact, what does Generational Dynamics have to say about Dark Ages in general, like the Greek Dark Ages http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages ? Can it help to predict the onset of those kinds of time periods?

[John]

The Dark Ages was a fairly static time period, I would say, although I'm not too knowledgeable about that era. In what ways did the Medieval period experience crisis wars and stuff? In fact, what does Generational Dynamics have to say about Dark Ages in general, like the Greek Dark Ages http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages ? Can it help to predict the onset of those kinds of time periods?

In the Financial Topics thread, Higgenbotham last year posted a number of materials
relating today's financial crisis to the financial crisis of the 1340s, which was particularly
catastrophic. He particularly believes that we're entering a new dark ages.

[Higgenbotham]

Also we had some discussion about population decline with respect to the dark ages and the mini dark age.

Some of the discussion starts here at this post:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 430#p10910

I'm going to make a novice attempt to define the difference between the beginning of a Dark Age and a typical fourth turning crisis era.

First attempt: A Dark Age is defined as the social and political breakdown of a regional or world hegemonic power which creates a power vacuum for which there is no clear and immediate successor.

Etc.

More here:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 264#p13051

[mhrr]

He particularly believes that we're entering a new dark ages.

That seems to be a bit of a stretch. I've read a few of the reasons in the link that Higgenbotham posted:


Yes, the Occupy movement and Anonymous are fighting against the government (although Anonymous has a rather loose definition due to the design of that particular organization), but the Occupy movement isn't fighting to be part of the government, they just want the government to implement the right kinds of reforms. Usurpers in the past did want to take charge of the government, but were inept. In this case, opposing forces to the government just want reforms that they like.

How are nation-states crumbling institutions? Please address this.

The singularity...meh, I doubt that we'll reach machine intelligence on-par with human intelligence (good lord, we don't even know what human intelligence is, it's difficult to duplicate what you don't understand) within the next 20 or even 30 years (maybe even 40).

My guess is that no, there probably won't be a Dark Age any time soon, but I have no doubt we'll have a major, major war, possibly over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Christ, you can see that happening right now! But I don't know what the cause will be, but war seems all but certain to me with all these tempers cooking all around the world...but at the same time, it could be a case of confirmation bias, having read about generational dynamics and heard the predictions.

[mhrr]

I meant to say this:

Surely the Black Death was a historical accident (the Bubonic Plague traveled along the Silk Road, customs in medieval times was not to wash hands or bathe and to eat with hands). To suggest that there'll be a major epidemic of that proportion in today's situation is preposterous, to me at least, because what evidence is there that such a thing will occur?

P.S. Although on the other hand, major epidemics have almost taken place in the past decade, and the only thing that kept them back was the governments...maybe if the governments are weaker it'd be easier for the epidemic to spread...
But still.
Maybe I'm putting up a little bit of a straw-man (what could be provided about epidemics that haven't occurred yet), but I'd like to hear some information.

[Marshall Kane]

He particularly believes that we're entering a new dark ages.

Yes, the Occupy movement and Anonymous are fighting against the government (although Anonymous has a rather loose definition due to the design of that particular organization), but the Occupy movement isn't fighting to be part of the government, they just want the government to implement the right kinds of reforms. Usurpers in the past did want to take charge of the government, but were inept. In this case, opposing forces to the government just want reforms that they like.

However, usurpers do have a tendency to take advantage of the type of amorphous discontent we see from the Occupy Movement. Revolutions generally don't start out as coherent ideological movements. They start with a growing number of average people pissed off over a variety of personal hardships until some charismatic "problem solver" comes along with a message that taps into this raw emotion. At this point the mob takes over and the more reasonable people who had signed on for simple "reforms they like" are either swept away in the hysteria or start to distance themselves.

[mhrr]

It'll be interesting to see if that happens, certainly. I wish there was a way of assigning probabilities to these events.

[Higgenbotham]

Surely the Black Death was a historical accident (the Bubonic Plague traveled along the Silk Road, customs in medieval times was not to wash hands or bathe and to eat with hands). To suggest that there'll be a major epidemic of that proportion in today's situation is preposterous, to me at least, because what evidence is there that such a thing will occur?

I didn't suggest that. This is what I said, in the posts following the first link posted above:

"The population, depleted by the Black Death, did not recover."

This hasn't happened yet, but if 14th Century timelines continue to hold, permanent population depletion will happen within 5 years and maybe 10 at the outside. It's already happened in the former Soviet Union.

So how could a scale of population reduction that is 10 times that of the prior saeculum occur? My thesis is that a Dark Age scale population reduction can only come about through large scale individual moral and institutional failure. This is harder to quantify, but my previous post describes what that looks like as opposed to typical crisis period failure.

The mechanisms that took the population down during the Dark Ages were probably more fundamental in nature, longer lasting, and more indicative that life was more difficult to sustain.

How are nation-states crumbling institutions? Please address this.

You've got to be kidding. Instead of talking about why I think so or you don't, let's start with this instead:

August 14, 2012
Congress Approval Ties All-Time Low at 10%
Americans' approval of Congress has been below 20% since June 2011
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- Ten percent of Americans in August approve of the job Congress is doing, tying last February's reading as the lowest in Gallup's 38-year history of this measure. Eighty-three percent disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156662/congr ... e-low.aspx

I would add that, despite these polling results, Americans have no idea how to change this; therefore, this future is plausible:

"The oppressed were no longer enduring but rebelling, although, like the bourgeois who tried to compel reform, they were inadequate, unready, and unequipped for the task."

My thesis is that a Dark Age scale population reduction can only come about through large scale individual moral and institutional failure.

[Higgenbotham]

He particularly believes that we're entering a new dark ages.

That seems to be a bit of a stretch. I've read a few of the reasons in the link that Higgenbotham posted:

Yes, the Occupy movement and Anonymous are fighting against the government (although Anonymous has a rather loose definition due to the design of that particular organization), but the Occupy movement isn't fighting to be part of the government, they just want the government to implement the right kinds of reforms. Usurpers in the past did want to take charge of the government, but were inept. In this case, opposing forces to the government just want reforms that they like.

This is what I said in the post that was linked:

This hasn't happened yet, but the flash mobs, Anonymous and Occupy Wall Street movements are probably the beginning of the mutual hostilities and class war.

Already discussed somewhat above, and the Occupy Wall Street crowd, for example, clearly does seem inadequate, unready, and unequipped for the task of governance. If we are entering a Dark Age, it will be found that nobody can govern and part of the reason, I believe, is simply that the US as it exists is ungovernable. As mentioned before, I don't think any dictator in his right mind will want to take over the US and try to restore order because it can't be done.

The flash mobs, Anonymous and Occupy movements are the beginning of the mutual hostilities and class war. I don't believe that they are the end.

Nobody is up to the task of governance, and I am projecting that will continue to be the case. In my opinion, that is the most refutable point I have made. There may well be a great leader who steps forward. I believe generational theory says that will happen.

[Reality Check]

What percentage of depopulation would be required ?

Wound the generally excpected ( meant to say accepted - but it reads well both ways ) 50% level resulting from an all out nuclear exchange be sufficient ?