Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Dr. Xenakis,

Are you familiar with the Human Excitability Study based upon the 11-year cycle of sunspot activity by Alexander Leonidovich Tchijevsky?

In his book, he basically comes to the same conclusion about human behavior that you have reached with your theory of Generational Dynamics. You both believe that human behavior is influenced and dictated by natural and observable cyclical patterns. And thus, future human behavior can be successfully and reliably predicted.

Here's an article that better explains the sunspot cycle theory:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... citability

I feel that Mr. Alexander Leonidovich Tchijevsky's research buttresses and supports yours.

What do you think?

Sincerely,
Joseph J.

josa0512 wrote: > Dr. Xenakis, Are you familiar with the Human Excitability Study
> based upon the 11-year cycle of sunspot activity by Alexander
> Leonidovich Tchijevsky?

> In his book, he basically comes to the same conclusion about human
> behavior that you have reached with your theory of Generational
> Dynamics. You both believe that human behavior is influenced and
> dictated by natural and observable cyclical patterns. And thus,
> future human behavior can be successfully and reliably predicted.

> Here's an article that better explains the sunspot cycle theory:
> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10- ... citability

> I feel that Mr. Alexander Leonidovich Tchijevsky's research
> buttresses and supports yours.

> What do you think? Sincerely, Joseph J.

At any given point in time, there are 10-40 wars going on at different
places in the world. Wars come and go, and it's hard to see how those
can be correlated to sunspots.

Generational Dynamics identifies war cycles, but each cycle is local
to a particular country or region. To a certain extent, there are
global technology cycles, and even global financial crisis cycles, but
no global war cycles.

I posted my own weird theory elsewhere in here some time back regarding this "idea".

To (maybe, kinda, sorta) restate my weird thinking:

It's not that the solar cycle drives "human cycles", but rather that human cycles were (initially) CREATED by the influence of the solar cycles.

In other words: A human generation is about 22ish years, which is two 11 year solar cycles. The human lifespan is about 4 generations (4x11=88ish years). The human "effective influence" timespan is about 3 generations (3x22=66ish years), which means that that is how long "the old guard" holds "control" over a particular society.

So, somewhere between 66-(1/2 generation=11)=55ish years and 88+11=94ish years a big nasty awfulness happens.

The length of lifespan in relation to any generation's effectiveness is the "mechanism" that drives the impulse to genocidal warfare.

Once living memory of the incredible awfulness of an occurrence of "world-war level" genocide dies (sufficiently), that awfulness is no longer "real" to those newly "in power", and once again (after about 4 generations of "lesser wars") is acceptable to perpetrate.