Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
High inflation was "sort of OK" for stocks in the 1970s and 1980s (they at least held their nominal prices for the most part during those decades and traders could make money). I think the reason for that is the 1970s US economy was full of high book value businesses with lots of assets on their balance sheet. That's not true today at all.
If you have 15% inflation, then after the stocks get down to P/E ratios of 5 they will go up with inflation.

If we get 15% inflation now, the first move is P/E down to 5 (so factor of 8 down) then we go up 15% per year.

If we get higher and higher inflation over the next year, the market has to go down a lot over the next year.

I don't think people are understanding that you have different reasonable P/E ratios when there is inflation. This is a huge miss.

After the end of the month, if the market stays up, I will buy more puts again.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 6123
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

vincecate wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:20 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
High inflation was "sort of OK" for stocks in the 1970s and 1980s (they at least held their nominal prices for the most part during those decades and traders could make money). I think the reason for that is the 1970s US economy was full of high book value businesses with lots of assets on their balance sheet. That's not true today at all.
If you have 15% inflation, then after the stocks get down to P/E ratios of 5 they will go up with inflation.

If we get 15% inflation now, the first move is P/E down to 5 (so factor of 8 down) then we go up 15% per year.

If we get higher and higher inflation over the next year, the market has to go down a lot over the next year.

I don't think people are understanding that you have different reasonable P/E ratios when there is inflation. This is a huge miss.

After the end of the month, if the market stays up, I will buy more puts again.

I think your estimate is reasonable. Whereas stocks fell by about a factor of 2 in the 1970s (nominally) when high inflation hit, they may fall by a factor of about 8 this time.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

vincecate
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Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:33 pm
I think your estimate is reasonable. Whereas stocks fell by about a factor of 2 in the 1970s (nominally) when high inflation hit, they may fall by a factor of about 8 this time.
The P/E ratio was not nearly so high before the inflation started that time:

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500 ... ings-chart

aeden
Posts: 6320
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

This was written by a lawyer:
------------------
Vaccine Mandate Employee Letter Example

No authorship claim or copyright asserted...this letter just came to me in a bottle, and I have no idea who might have penned it, nor can I possibly vouch for it, and what you fine folks do with it is entirely in your own hands, as the Gentlemen of the Bar remind me I can proffer no legal advice in the matter, and do not so here...

Dear Boss,

Compelling any employee to take any current Covid-19 vaccine violates federal and state law.

First, federal law prohibits any mandate of the Covid-19 vaccines as unlicensed, emergency-use-authorization-only vaccines. Subsection bbb-3(e)(1)(A)(ii)(III) of section 360 of Title 21 of the United States Code, otherwise known as the Emergency Use Authorization section of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, demands that everyone give employees the "option to accept or refuse administration" of the Covid-19 vaccine. ( https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/360bbb-3 ) This right to refuse emergency, experimental vaccines, such as the Covid-19 vaccine, implements the internationally agreed legal requirement of Informed Consent established in the Nuremberg Code of 1947. ( http://www.cirp.org/library/ethics/nuremberg/ ). As the Nuremberg Code established, every person must "be able to exercise free power of choice, without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, overreaching, or other ulterior form of constraint or coercion; and should have sufficient knowledge and comprehension of the elements of the subject matter involved as to enable him to make an understanding and enlightened decision" for any medical experimental drug, as the Covid-19 vaccine currently is. The Nuremberg Code prohibited even the military from requiring such experimental vaccines. (Doe #1 v. Rumsfeld, 297 F.Supp.2d 119 (D.D.C. 2003).

Secondly, demanding employees divulge their personal medical information invades their protected right to privacy, and discriminates against them based on their perceived medical status, in contravention of the Americans with Disabilities Act. (42 USC §12112(a).)

Third, conditioning continued employment upon participating in a medical experiment and demanding disclosure of private, personal medical information, may also create employer liability under other federal and state laws, including HIPAA, FMLA, and applicable state tort law principles, including torts prohibiting and proscribing invasions of privacy and battery. Indeed, any employer mandating a vaccine is liable to their employee for any adverse event suffered by that employee. ( https://www.osha.gov/coronavirus/faqs#vaccine ). The CDC records reports of the adverse events already reported to date concerning the current Covid-19 vaccine.( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... vaers.html )

With Regards,

Employee of the Year

Cool Breeze
Posts: 682
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

The Supremes will likely overturn this or in the case of the corrupt Federal Courts deciding that Texas case is OK for employee abuse, or student abuse (at colleges), they'll just not hear it

Banana Republic reconfirmed, most likely - I hope I'm wrong.

aeden
Posts: 6320
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp
As we have seen real time it is impossible for the Government not to be abused and the abuser of my capital.
Even getting a first breath is slaughter by these demons.
They are running cover for interests. As we said on a separate note data fragility and these gain function lunatics should be buried alive.
Now I understand clearer the milk and honey capital punishment's from the Ancients.
Printing is not a solution and the Cup of the Whore drained in corruption.

The cup had made all the earth drunken; the cup of intoxication, splendid and attractive,
was full of an evil power, which robbed men's senses and degraded them.

The people did not get the help they actually needed.


As much as half of the unemployment benefits paid by the US government over the past year may have been stolen through fraud, with the bulk ultimately ending up outside the country - likely into the hands of foreign crime syndicates in China, Nigeria, Russia and elsewhere, according to Axios' Felix Salmon.

Brought to you by the same people that don't want to require a valid ID to vote. Thieves.

aeden
Posts: 6320
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-publi ... k=2SjNr_tD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPYA9racfO4

hunter seeker
how does it feelz

script is closed
target value hit
all scrapes and scripts flushed
zero leverage going forward
hunter seeker as discussed

inception date Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:13 pm
your late

thread: l8ter 44xx
Dunning Kruger never fails

H book 4 sooner than l8ter

Circling wagons in a blatant play to protect their own
naked shorts should be jailed or worse

Human Engineering Basic Cause Category.

The no clue notme cults are circling the wagons. The sickness just soaks in deeper.
Deceit and prevarication are commonplace. Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:55 pm

brain-eating rampage through the top tax bracket, and the specter of a gang of billionaire gamblers being crushed at their own game was poised to become the funniest thing to happen to the United States since the Gerald Ford presidency. tyler

https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com ... -this-one/

aeden
Posts: 6320
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

As you said H they are years behind.
Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:58 pm

The standard run is the course we are on.

I did not forget your input model...
I consider they are two years behind on support systems at a minimum
on log function overrun models you also discerned. I will leave it at slack production.

thread: Or12UEx8fHY

pretext: Mon Jul 18, 2011 8:44 pm
The Deception Takes Form - The Seven-Year Plan
Given data points the model look accurate on how it was done.
The rope burn phase we noted to what was even engaged to History they do not even understand to date.
Last edited by aeden on Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

They started in 1871 and before and now they screech about its a plot.
The Organic Act of 1871.

https://principia-scientific.com/2010-r ... -lockdown/

The news as you thought has been over for decades.

CDC researcher Poul Thorsen, who famously headed up the "Denmark Study" that many claim disproved any link between autism and vaccines,
has been indicted in Atlanta by a federal grand jury on charges of wire fraud,
money laundering and defrauding research institutions of grant money.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 6123
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
High inflation was "sort of OK" for stocks in the 1970s and 1980s (they at least held their nominal prices for the most part during those decades and traders could make money). I think the reason for that is the 1970s US economy was full of high book value businesses with lots of assets on their balance sheet. That's not true today at all.
FORTUNE 500

View by year: 1970

Rank Company Revenues($ millions) Profits($ millions)

1 General Motors 24,295.1 1,710.7
2 Exxon Mobil 14,929.8 1,047.6
3 Ford Motor 14,755.6 546.5
4 General Electric 8,448.0 278.0
5 Intl. Business Machines 7,197.3 933.9
6 Chrysler 7,052.2 88.8
7 Mobil 6,621.4 434.5
8 Texaco 5,867.9 769.8
9 ITT Industries 5,474.7 234.0
10 Gulf Oil 4,953.3 610.6
11 AT&T Technologies 4,883.2 227.0
12 U.S. Steel 4,754.1 217.2
13 ChevronTexaco 3,825.0 453.8
14 LTV 3,750.3 -38.3
15 DuPont 3,655.3 356.2
16 Shell Oil 3,537.1 291.2
17 CBS 3,509.2 149.9
18 Amoco 3,469.1 321.0
19 General Telephone & Electronics 3,262.0 237.4
20 Goodyear Tire & Rubber 3,215.3 158.2
21 RCA 3,187.9 151.3
22 Esmark 3,107.6 21.9
23 McDonnell Douglas 3,023.8 117.6
24 Union Carbide 2,933.0 186.2
25 Bethlehem Steel 2,927.7 156.5
https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/f ... full/1970/

This only goes back to 1999 but it also helps illustrate the idea.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visu ... 999-today/


In 1970, the US Steel plant in Gary, Indiana was the largest steel plant in the world.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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