Hope everyone is doing well. Prayers for John; health, well-being and serenity.
Gratitude to all the regulars keeping the board active and civil. Kudos to Cool Breeze for the courage to follow the Bitcoin craze to where it's at, I have no clue about Bitcoin and am just watching everything unfold.
As mentioned before, I'm usually more interested in the long term view of things and had to take a hiatus from everything as other things were more concerning to me. I have more free time now and the time was good for me, it helped me reflect on my own personal bias' and to see where I gave credence to others' opinions instead of looking at things more objectively.
(it doesn't seem to like my image so i put the link)https://imgur.com/a/JWiTFau
One of those things was the belief that the ending cycle for the markets had to be the Grand Supercycle V, resulting in a full market crash. However, I think I found another pattern that follows Elliott Wave rules while fulfilling both the larger Grand Supercycle channel as well as the Cycle channel from 2017 to 2024. We can see that both Wave 1 and 3 would touch their respective channels in both Waves and the current extended Wave 5 run is reaching the upper channel line to finish the larger Wave 3. Could overshoot, but current range to hit the channel is S&P 500 between 6300 - 6500. After that, we retrace back to ~3500 - 3700 area to hit the lower channel again, as we deal with the fourth turning, over spending, and other world issues, but it shouldn't be the end of the world as we know it.
So about a ~40% - 50% retrace in the markets to remove the excess which will definitely cause issues on all levels of society. Again, not enough for the end of the world, but enough that it may feel like the end of the world as all markets world wide will be effected. I believe smart money is already either moving to cash like Warren Buffett or are positioning into hard assets like gold, silver, platinum and their respective companies. Commodities will be the next sector that money flows to as I believe we will again be in the cycle like the 1940's where FDR's New Deal will be used by multiple countries to rebuild infrastructure, institute social programs and basically re-employ the countless unemployed workers after the retrace and economic repercussions.
Any thoughts are welcome, I don't really know how fast the drop will be however considering the excesses in everything, it should be pretty fast, but it shouldn't be back to sub ~2000 levels like some doomsayers will predict.