Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

ND noted "Starting to see stories reporting Black Rock is buying up pretty much every home in America they can get their hands on at 20-50% over market. They're buying up entire neighborhoods."

The Great Reset is NOW, not in the future. You think all that printed money didn't have a purpose?

The days of the middle class buying some rental units to make income and build wealth are going the way of the "family farm". All corporate ownership in the future. You'll just rent from them. "You'll own nothing and like it."

https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/H41/Current/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/ This we have discussed before.

April 23, 2021
Domestically chartered commercial banks acquired $8.3 billion in assets and liabilities of nonbank institutions in the week ending April 7, 2021. The major asset items affected were the following: real estate loans, residential real estate loans, closed-end residential loans, $6.4 billion; and other asset items, $1.9 billion. The major liability item affected was the following: borrowings, $6.5 billion.
The residual (assets less liabilities) increased $1.8 billion

thread: vega

Nothing like a battle axe to the face.

ADAPT. Awareness, Desire, Ability, Promote, and Transfer (project management) ADAPT.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOu07mxfmJk

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I'm still looking for a top in the stock market and am about 129% short.

I'll try to post a Maximum Ruin update today.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:28 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:27 pm
Year 2021 Bitcoin Bubble Talking Points

Bitcoin has outperformed every other asset in history.
It's a new era.
People just don't understand it.
Bitcoin has special features that give it value.
He understands it.
Bitcoin 100K.
Nothing so animates a speculative herd as a parabolic price advance in an asset detached from any standard of value.

The stock market is the same thing right now in my opinion. I'm not watching CNBC or anything today but I can imagine there's a lot of talk about how high inflation is good for stocks.

High inflation was "sort of OK" for stocks in the 1970s and 1980s (they at least held their nominal prices for the most part during those decades and traders could make money). I think the reason for that is the 1970s US economy was full of high book value businesses with lots of assets on their balance sheet. That's not true today at all.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 10-Jun-2021 World View: CPI and stocks
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
> The stock market is the same thing right now in my opinion. I'm
> not watching CNBC or anything today but I can imagine there's a
> lot of talk about how high inflation is good for stocks.
Actually, that's not what I've been hearing.

There's a lot of debate over whether the cpi increase is transitory,
but the consensus is that stocks are not being affected by the new cpi
report, and won't be until the Fed does something to indicate that
it's NOT transitory.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:44 am
** 10-Jun-2021 World View: CPI and stocks
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
> The stock market is the same thing right now in my opinion. I'm
> not watching CNBC or anything today but I can imagine there's a
> lot of talk about how high inflation is good for stocks.
Actually, that's not what I've been hearing.

There's a lot of debate over whether the cpi increase is transitory,
but the consensus is that stocks are not being affected by the new cpi
report, and won't be until the Fed does something to indicate that
it's NOT transitory.
vincecate wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:35 am
This time, I think the most reliable indicator we are past the top will be news that inflation is getting out of control. Faith in the Fed is just too high.

If that's what they are saying, then I agree with Vince that faith in the Fed is just too high, given actual conditions.

Whether inflation is transitory or not and whether the Fed can actually indicate through their actions that it is transitory or not, is not the issue in my opinion. Peaking inflation or continued inflation higher than 2% are not good for stocks. The only exception I can think of is if the Fed can engineer a "soft landing" on inflation back to 2% and it's not realistic to think they can do that. But apparently that's what the market believes today.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:48 am
richard5za wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:04 pm
Is Cool Breeze still with us? What’s the BTC forecast Cool?

His forecast is for 200K.
Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:55 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:31 pm
You've given no reasons why anybody should even think about Bitcoin.
He won't listen. I've given 100s of reasons to buy bitcoin. You have given many. He's a fossil. I'm betting he is at least 58 years old, and probably close to mid 60s or 70. Many oldies won't allow themselves to think outside the box. Not all, but it's fascinating when you interact with stubborn people who refuse to recognize reality. Fiat is going to last, sure Higgie, keep up that dream you know is a nightmare.

Visa now accepts bitcoin as a step in the future. Why? Banks are much worse than Bitcoin. Higster doesn't even understand this. Vince, it's going to be funny when this thing is worth 200k and Higster is still calling it a bubble, it'll literally be on nearly ever businesses' balance sheet at that point, and he'll still be yelling "get off my lawn."
Over what time frame? Yes, it will reach 200k for sure in the coming years, I think it still reaches it in the next year regardless of what has happened the past few months. I am holding long term, so I don't really care. Soon enough everyone will be snapping up more assets that actually have real value, and that of course includes gold and silver, which I am fine with, but if I need an escape plan, BTC shines (and will outperform, to boot).

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

John wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:44 am
** 10-Jun-2021 World View: CPI and stocks
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
> The stock market is the same thing right now in my opinion. I'm
> not watching CNBC or anything today but I can imagine there's a
> lot of talk about how high inflation is good for stocks.
Actually, that's not what I've been hearing.

There's a lot of debate over whether the cpi increase is transitory,
but the consensus is that stocks are not being affected by the new cpi
report, and won't be until the Fed does something to indicate that
it's NOT transitory.
As a deflationist, you should know (and yes it is the trend) that the debt system requires money printing to keep afloat. The key to understanding this to the degree that is required to show real knowledge of it, is that it needs to exponentially increase (the "stimulus") over time just to keep up with the farce. Given the history of the USA and the reserve status, this can go on for some time (obviously) but those next to the money printer and those in real assets (real estate, btc, gold, silver, etc) will see the nominal value of these assets skyrocket.

Again, the CPI is just one measure of inflation, and it's deceptive at that. If you watched the Rick Rule analysis, you'd see that normal people don't care that much about the goods (fairly deceptively) listed in the CPI, but rather a small portion of them AND most importantly housing prices, educations, health care, and TAXES (which are left out).

The right way to look at inflation is the COST OF LIVING. Any person not talking about this is trying to scam the concept and confuse others into his own narrative. Which is exactly what the government wants.

vincecate
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Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:03 am
Whether inflation is transitory or not and whether the Fed can actually indicate through their actions that it is transitory or not, is not the issue in my opinion. Peaking inflation or continued inflation higher than 2% are not good for stocks. The only exception I can think of is if the Fed can engineer a "soft landing" on inflation back to 2% and it's not realistic to think they can do that. But apparently that's what the market believes today.
If you look at this graph, it is the last 4 months that inflation is really going up fast. The dip 12 and 13 months ago is not the real issue.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=EDhg

The early months are not as steep as the recent months.
If the coming months are like the last 4 months (my guess), then as we replace the earlier months in this 12 month rolling average, we will keep getting higher CPI numbers.

If today's 5% CPI does not shake the markets, I expect that one of the coming monthly reports will.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:54 am
John wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:44 am
** 10-Jun-2021 World View: CPI and stocks
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:38 am
> The stock market is the same thing right now in my opinion. I'm
> not watching CNBC or anything today but I can imagine there's a
> lot of talk about how high inflation is good for stocks.
Actually, that's not what I've been hearing.

There's a lot of debate over whether the cpi increase is transitory,
but the consensus is that stocks are not being affected by the new cpi
report, and won't be until the Fed does something to indicate that
it's NOT transitory.
As a deflationist, you should know (and yes it is the trend) that the debt system requires money printing to keep afloat. The key to understanding this to the degree that is required to show real knowledge of it, is that it needs to exponentially increase (the "stimulus") over time just to keep up with the farce.
Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-2008

One, Two, Three ... Infinity

Web Log - November, 2008

One, Two, Three ... Infinity
Watching the world spin out of control.

Anyone who was interested in mathematics in the 1950s and 1960s has probably read George Gamow's book, One, Two, Three ... Infinity. That's the title that's been popping into my mind the last few days, watching the process that's going on.

Last week, it seemed that the fervor for bailouts was finally subsiding. Half of the $700 billion bailout was going to be left for the Obama administration, and the auto maker bailouts seemed to be foundering.

But that was last week, an eternity ago. And now, as eternity comes to a close, the bailout amounts seem to be approaching infinity. Even George Gamow would be amazed.
The new investments turn out to be worthless, but the new debt remains, causing the massive bubble to leak a trillion or so dollars every week. We've been in a massive deflationary spiral for well over a year, and it's accelerating.

That's why the amount of money needed for the bailout is increasing so rapidly. It was a $700 billion bailout in October, and now it's a $7.7 trillion bailout. Soon it will be a $70 trillion bailout. One, two, three ... infinity.
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 081125.htm
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Thu Jun 10, 2021 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Yes, Higgy. And there is also this, which encapsulates what you all conveniently dismiss for no good reason:

Image

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