China - Why would they start a war NOW ?

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Reality Check
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China - Why would they start a war NOW ?

Post by Reality Check »

Why would China start a war now.

This is a very interesting question, but the answer is because they believe they can win.

Why so confident? Because they already have won.

The status since World War II has been that, until very recently, both the South China Sea and the East China Sea have been a private lake under the effective military control of the U.S.-Japan alliance.

Ignoring the South China sea, and focusing on the relationship in the East China Sea between China on the one hand, and the U.S.-Japan alliance on the other hand, look what has changed.

Only Japan, with the backup of the United States, was exercising military and police control of these islands in the East China Sea which are closer to main land China, than the main Japanese islands, and much closer to the island of Taiwan ( non-communist China ) than Japan. That is until just months ago.

Then, when Japan arrested a crew and captured a fishing boat, for illegally fishing in Japanese waters, China forced Japan, to back down via threats.

First the ship was released to China, then the crew was released to China, except the captain, then the captain, who had been charged with a crime and was awaiting trial, was also released to China, without any concessions from China, just threats from China.

Now China has sent armed ships to exercise police control and sovereignty over the islands and their surrounding waters.

These ships have been ordered to leave by the armed ships of the Japanese coast guard, and the Japanese were simply ignored.

The U.S. Defense Secretary has, within the last 24 hours, announced to the world that the U.S. is neutral on the disputed islands and has no position on which country owns them. This is a change from the maps that were drawn up by the U.S. after World War II which gave these islands to Japan.

The U.S. Defense Secretary also said the U.S. would honor it's treaty obligations to Japan, but since the U.S. no longer recognizes these Islands as being Japanese Islands, what does honoring treaty obligations really mean? As the Obama White House has recently pointed out, "the word ally is just a legal term of art".

The Status of these Islands has already changed. They have already gone form sole control by Japan to being patrolled by armed ships of both Japan and China.

The U.S. has announced the U.S. no longer considers them Japanese islands, which implies the U.S. does not have a treaty obligation to defend them.

Rumor has it that a flotilla of 1,000 Chinese fishing boats is on the way to these waters to exercise China's sovereign rights to these islands and the waters around them by fishing in them against the orders of the Japanese. The armed Chinese boats are there to protect the Chinese fishing boats.

Even if the fishing boats do not show up, things have already changed. The U.S. now recognizes both the Chinese and Japanese claim equally and armed ships from both China and Japan are patrolling the islands.

If the fishing boats do show up, then,

Japan must either board and confiscate the fishing boats, or threaten to sink them if they do not leave.

IF the Japanese do neither of these they are allowing defacto control of the waters around these Islands by China.

The U.S. has urged both sides to refrain from using force. If Japan follows the advice of the U.S. - China wins.

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