Tom Mazanec's Topic

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John
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Tom Mazanec's Topic

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Tom Mazanec's Topic

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by Tom Mazanec »

John:
Inflation March-April 0.82% https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ... ar2=202104
That is ~9.9% annually...almost double digit.
And yes, please write that article on various news sources.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Why do you think the "war" will fizzle (and why did it fizzle in 2014)? This is well past the 58 year limit.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by John »

** 14-May-2021 World View: Stupid inflationists
Tom Mazanec wrote:
Wed May 12, 2021 5:02 pm
> John: Inflation March-April 0.82%
> https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ... ar2=202104
> That is ~9.9% annually...almost double digit.
Why do you keep asking the same stupid questions over and over?

This is typical of the hysterical nonsense that I've been hearing all
week from the deeply religious inflationist community on CNBC and
elsewhere, and that continues to this day. It goes to show how the
so-called "experts" on tv are total idiots.

I've heard variations of the following statement over and over on
tv from these idiot experts:

"Inflation exploded in April at an annual rate of 4.2%, the
highest rate since Sept 2008, so inflation is already occurring, and
we can expect much higher inflation in the next few months!"


The tv idiots are so stupid, that they don't even realize that the
above statement is self-contradictory. Can you see this for yourself,
Dear Reader, or do I have to explain it to you?

OK. Here's the explanation. If 4.2% is the highest rate since Sept
2008, then -- Gasp! -- the inflation rate must have been EVEN HIGHER
in Sept 2008. So we can look back in history to Sept 2008 to see what
happened after that. But we already know that there was no inflation
explosion after Sept 2008, and so the entire line of reasoning by the
tv experts is an exercise in total idiocy.

So let's use Mazanec's BLS calculator, and see if we can figure out
what's going on. This is the time machine you've been hoping for,
Mazanec.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

* Input $100, Feb 2020 to Feb 2021, Calculate. Output: $104.16

So that's the published "explosive" inflation rate, 4.2%, in April 2021.

Now let's look at September 2008:

* Input $100, Sep 2007 to Sep 2008, Calculate. Output: $104.94

So that's the 4.9% inflation rate -- almost 5%!! -- in September 2008.

According to the idiots we see on tv, the next year after that should
have seen even MORE explosive inflation. Let's look at the values:

* Input $100, Sep 2008 to Sep 2009, Calculate. Output: $98.71

Whoa!!!!!!! There was NO explosive inflation in the next year, after
the 5% increase in September 2008.

Ohmigod!!!! It was actually NEGATIVE inflation.

It's almost too overwhelming to believe. The inflation rate
REVERTED TO THE MEAN!!!!! Who would have thought that anything
like that was even possible??? Are pigs flying?

And so, Vince, you may be hopin' and prayin' for 5% inflation in 2022,
but history tells us that huge lumber price increases will not be
repeated, that huge used car price increases will not be repeated, and
it's even possible that the inflation rate in 2022 will be negative.
DAMN YOU, LAW OF REVERSION OF THE MEAN, I HATE YOU!!!!

And so, Mazanec, I hope your good pals at the shadowstats scam web
site use this opportunity to raise their rates from $175 to $200. Why
not? With inflation exploding, they should take advantage. Never let
a crisis go to waste.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by Tom Mazanec »

"Regression to the Mean" did not help Weimar Germany, postwar Hungary or Y2K Zimbabwe.
Let's use your time machine. Your first Web Log was June 2004. You have been crying "deflation" for at least that long.
Let's see how much deflation there has been, using the CPI (which uses things like "hedonics" but not things like "shrinkflation".)

100.00

in
June

2004

has the same buying power as

$140.78

in
April

2021

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ... ar2=202104

That is deflation only by your definition. That is moderate inflation by anyone else's.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by Tom Mazanec »

And the above is not a monthly blip. It covers almost 17 years, nearly a generation or a turning.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by John »

** 15-May-2021 World View: Law of Reversion to the Mean

Mazanec, I've answered these questions about a deflationary era
several times.

I was referring to the Law of Reversion to the Mean.

Are you in touch with AOC? Maybe you can contact her and ask her to
cancel the Law of Reversion to the Mean on the grounds that it's
racist, white supremacist, and misogynist. If you can get her to
cancel it, then maybe you can get the inflation you and shadowstats
crave.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by Tom Mazanec »

I do not want inflation. I live on a fixed income. I am simply pointing out that inflation had been the record for the last 17+ years you have been pushing deflation (I believe you started on the Fourth Turning Forum). Also, that your law of reversion to the mean is not the Pythagorean Theorem.
As for your view of me personally, my view of you personally is that you are either a coward or a blowhard who threatened to eat a bullet because you could not afford your lifestyle because of said inflation and because you cannot get or hold a job, even when you do your interviewer/employer the favor of pointing out that they are idiots...must be ageism.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Cool Breeze
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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by Cool Breeze »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Sat May 15, 2021 8:55 am
"Regression to the Mean" did not help Weimar Germany, postwar Hungary or Y2K Zimbabwe.
Let's use your time machine. Your first Web Log was June 2004. You have been crying "deflation" for at least that long.
Let's see how much deflation there has been, using the CPI (which uses things like "hedonics" but not things like "shrinkflation".)

100.00

in
June

2004

has the same buying power as

$140.78

in
April

2021

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ... ar2=202104

That is deflation only by your definition. That is moderate inflation by anyone else's.
John, do you have a counter to the fact that there has been inflation that is incontrovertible?

That's why I think we are talking about different things - you must be suggesting that if something spirals out of control, or into a crisis, that will be deflationary. But can't we, and don't we have, inflation YoY for decades? And that's even WITH technological deflation that brings prices down all the while.

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Re: Tom Mazanec's Topic

Post by John »

** 19-May-2021 World View: Asking the right question
Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue May 18, 2021 6:31 pm
> John, do you have a counter to the fact that there has been
> inflation that is incontrovertible?

> That's why I think we are talking about different things - you
> must be suggesting that if something spirals out of control, or
> into a crisis, that will be deflationary. But can't we, and don't
> we have, inflation YoY for decades? And that's even WITH
>
technological deflation that brings prices down all the
> while.
You're asking the wrong question.

For 20 years, you and Mazanec and "experts" and economists have been
predicting 5%-10%-20% inflation, often comparing the American economy
to the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

For the same 20 years, I've been saying no, that's not going to happen,
and that inflation will be very low until there's a major financial
crisis, and then there will be a huge deflationary spiral.

So you and the others have been wrong for 20 years, and I've been
right for 20 years. So I'm just saying that things will continue
as they have for 20 years. The burden of proof isn't on me.

The burden of proof is on you. You have to explain why "this time
it's different." Since inflation has been very low for 20 years,
despite several brief large inflationary spikes (as in September 2008)
that reverted to the mean, why is it different today than it has been
for the last 20 years?

So that's the right question, and the question that you should be
asking.

So, since you consider yourself to be the smartest person in the room,
and you consider the rest of us to be trogolodytes, degenerates and
satanists, please educate us. Why was I right for 20 years, and you
and the experts were wrong for 20 years, and why is it different this
time?

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