Societal collapse

[Guest]

Since this thread is about societal collapse, I will put in a prediction here.

There are still too many good people with good values around.

World War Three will change this. A lot, an awful lot, of good people will die as they defend freedom and democracy. We will lose the best of the current military age demographic.

After WW3, the country will become quite divided. Much more so that currently. Plus, people will be incensed that the government can no longer rain down money on them.

The result will be an explosion of the "victim" culture and blaming everyone else. It will become combative. And by that I mean people shooting each other.

I think most of the world will degenerate this way.

What about Asia? Will it survive?

[tim]

Since this thread is about societal collapse, I will put in a prediction here.

There are still too many good people with good values around.

World War Three will change this. A lot, an awful lot, of good people will die as they defend freedom and democracy. We will lose the best of the current military age demographic.

After WW3, the country will become quite divided. Much more so that currently. Plus, people will be incensed that the government can no longer rain down money on them.

The result will be an explosion of the "victim" culture and blaming everyone else. It will become combative. And by that I mean people shooting each other.

I think most of the world will degenerate this way.

Respectfully,

You still don't understand the most basic concepts of Generational Dynamics.

You continue to deny that nuclear weapons will be used anywhere other then sea and you don't understand the cycle itself.

First Turning -- Austerity Period or High Period. When a crisis war ends, new emotions take over in the public. There's a relief that the country survived, there's acceptance of the victory or defeat and the compromises that were required, there's guilt and controversy at the atrocities committed by them and fury at atrocities committed by others, and most of all there's a determination that no such war must ever happen again. This is often a period of great prosperity, since there's plenty of land and food for the smaller population that survived the war, and there's a willingness to impose austere societal rules to guarantee that the nation will be safe from that time forward. (America's most recent austerity period began in 1945.)

[tim]

Before the first nuclear bomb was tested there was a theory that the atmosphere and oceans could be ignited from a chain reaction from when the bomb went off. Nobody knew for sure what was going to happen. This is a great example of the crisis period.

You believe that nuclear weapons won't be used on a large scale. Not only will they be used but somewhere there will probably be scientists developing some sort of artificial intelligence that we couldn't even comprehend today. I'm sure they will have a similar dilemma - what if this AI becomes like Skynet in the movie Terminator?

https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2 ... phere.html

The Fear That a Nuclear Bomb Could Ignite the Atmosphere

In 1942, Hungarian-American physicist Edward Teller, known now as "the father of the hydrogen bomb," entertained a devastating nightmare scenario: that an atomic bomb could ignite the atmosphere and the oceans. He reasoned that a nuclear fission bomb might create temperatures so extreme that it would cause the hydrogen atoms in the air and water to fuse together into helium, just like in our sun, generating a runaway reaction that would eventually engulf the globe, extinguishing all life and turning the Earth into a miniature star.

When Teller informed some of his colleagues of this possibility, he was greeted with both skepticism and fear. Hans Bethe immediately dismissed the idea, but according to author Pearl Buck, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Arthur Compton was so concerned that he told Robert Oppenheimer that if there were even the slightest chance of this "ultimate catastrophe" playing out, all work on the bomb should stop.

In her feature, the author Pearl S. Buck recalls a conversation she had with Compton about his conversation with Oppenheimer during the Manhattan Project:

"Hydrogen nuclei," Arthur Compton explained to me, "are unstable, and they can combine into helium nuclei with a large release of energy, as they do on the sun. To set off such a reaction would require a very high temperature, but might not the enormously high temperature of the atomic bomb be just what was needed to explode hydrogen?

"And if hydrogen, what about hydrogen in sea water? Might not the explosion of the atomic bomb set off an explosion of the ocean itself? Nor was this all that Oppenheimer feared. The nitrogen in the air is also unstable, though in less degree. Might not it, too, be set off by an atomic explosion in the atmosphere?"

"The earth would be vaporized," I said.

"Exactly," Compton said, and with that gravity! "It would be the ultimate catastrophe. Better to accept the slavery of the Nazis than to run the chance of drawing the final curtain on mankind!"

"If, after calculation, [Compton] said, it were proved that the chances were more than approximately three in one million that the earth would be vaporized by the atomic explosion, he would not proceed with the project. Calculation proved the figures slightly less -- and the project continued."

[Navigator]

What about Asia? Will it survive?

Asia, post WW3, is going to be an area of petty warlord kingdoms. This may be true even in Japan.

China will be defeated through the starvation of its population. This is similar to how Germany was defeated in WW1. Along the way, I am not sure how Japan will fare, as imports are going to come to a complete stop during the war for them as well.

Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan will be battlefields that will be the modern day equivalent of Flanders and Verdun in WW1.

[Navigator]

Respectfully,

You still don't understand the most basic concepts of Generational Dynamics.

You continue to deny that nuclear weapons will be used anywhere other then sea and you don't understand the cycle itself.

First Turning -- Austerity Period or High Period. When a crisis war ends, new emotions take over in the public. There's a relief that the country survived, there's acceptance of the victory or defeat and the compromises that were required, there's guilt and controversy at the atrocities committed by them and fury at atrocities committed by others, and most of all there's a determination that no such war must ever happen again. This is often a period of great prosperity, since there's plenty of land and food for the smaller population that survived the war, and there's a willingness to impose austere societal rules to guarantee that the nation will be safe from that time forward. (America's most recent austerity period began in 1945.)

Tim, I don't think that GD says that nuclear weapons have to be used everywhere. There will be a terrible war, hundreds of millions, if not Billions, will die, and it will be horrific for years. With modern military tech, we don't need nukes for that.

I just posted about when I think nukes will be used, and I believe it will be in the post WW3 environment. I put that post in the Theology thread.

WW1/WW2 is, in my opinion, a deviation from the overall GD theory. I think that WW3/WW4 (where nuclear weapons are used in regular course) will be a similar deviation.

WW1 was run by people who had some degree of decency and rational ability. WW2 was started and run by a couple of low-life psycopaths (Hitler and Stalin) who had absolutely no checks on their depravity. I think WW3 will be more like WW1, and WW4 (which will occur after a much shorter interval than WW1-WW2) will be stated/run by someone very similar to Hitler/Stalin. Someone willing to kill everyone and destroy everything. Basically the anti-Christ. WW3 will give him his opportunity to rise to power, just as it took WW1 to enable Hitler/Stalin (thru Lenin).

I know this is not the main theory here, just my personal opinion. We will all shortly see.

[Guest]

Since this thread is about societal collapse, I will put in a prediction here.

There are still too many good people with good values around.

World War Three will change this. A lot, an awful lot, of good people will die as they defend freedom and democracy. We will lose the best of the current military age demographic.

After WW3, the country will become quite divided. Much more so that currently. Plus, people will be incensed that the government can no longer rain down money on them.

The result will be an explosion of the "victim" culture and blaming everyone else. It will become combative. And by that I mean people shooting each other.

I think most of the world will degenerate this way.

I think Brazil, if still under Jair Messias Bolsonaro , will come out better than most of South America. He will have the military behind him. (And that is a knife which cuts both ways.)

Central America? Anyone? I am not optimistic about it. Even now, in peace times, Central America is horrible. Will Central Americans just flood into North America? I have lived in among Central Americans, and I would describe most of the people there as dependent, incompetent, and lacking any real skill sets. They are also prone to violence, easily the worst in all of Latin America and the Caribbean. How would that affect the situation in North America?

Do you think Canada will close its borders?

[Tom Mazanec]

I know this is not the main theory here, just my personal opinion. We will all shortly see.

What timescale do you mean by "shortly"?

[Navigator]

What timescale do you mean by "shortly"?

Months

[FullMoon]

What timescale do you mean by "shortly"?

Months

Will it start with a flash and bang or will we have some clear forewarning? Thanks for your reply

[Navigator]

I think Brazil, if still under Jair Messias Bolsonaro , will come out better than most of South America. He will have the military behind him. (And that is a knife which cuts both ways.)

Central America? Anyone? I am not optimistic about it. Even now, in peace times, Central America is horrible. Will Central Americans just flood into North America? I have lived in among Central Americans, and I would describe most of the people there as dependent, incompetent, and lacking any real skill sets. They are also prone to violence, easily the worst in all of Latin America and the Caribbean. How would that affect the situation in North America?

Do you think Canada will close its borders?

I am not certain that South/Central America will escape WW3. I think that there is the possibility of warfare there this time. Could be from Nicaragua/Cuba in Central and Venezuela/somebody else (maybe Bolivia or even Argentina) in South America.

Added to this is pre/post war economic collapse (yet again) that leads to severe stability problems (yet again).

By the post war point, the US won't have the draw that it currently does, as there won't be "free money" anymore. But many will still try to get to the US for security. It will still be somewhat better than what they are dealing with down south.

As for Canada closing its borders, I am not sure what the concern is there.

BTW, I would suggest anyone from Korea/Taiwan going to Canada or the US for vacation in late March, and trying to stay at least through mid April.