Societal collapse

[FullMoon]

What timescale do you mean by "shortly"?

Months

Do you still anticipate an approximate year long campaign of island hopping across the Taiwan straight?

[Cool Breeze]

** 16-Dec-2021 World View: 2022: Bad or Amusing?

> There's no problem I have, as you all know, in making
> predictions. I just find the guests disingenuous, among other
> things. I have made predictions that are right and usually I don't
> get credit for them. But that's ok.

> A generic one for the coming months is that the Fed will try to
> "raise rates" as they say, they'll do it to a very small degree,
> and then when they see the backlash in the markets, they'll make
> something up why they can't or won't any longer; it'll be quite
> amusing.

No, I do NOT "know" that. To the contrary, what I "know" is that
you're very evasive about answering questions, while demanding that
others give detailed answers.

In this case, you've given a really silly "generic" (i.e., "evasive")
answer. Let's recall what the question is:

> Why exactly will 2022 be bad? What are your predictions?

This was in response to your claim that 2022 would be "bad." But now
you seem to be flip-flopping and saying that 2022 would merely be
"amusing." Have you changed your mind? Which is it? Will 2022 be
"bad" or "amusing"? And if it's still "bad," then what are the
details - since, as we "all" know, you have no problem making
predictions. Why exactly will 2022 be bad?

Tom asked me and I foresee the Fed getting trapped, the market taking a significant decrease when they try to raise rates (if they even try), then raining money on the problem when also dollar denominated debt outside the US causes much international turmoil or economic crises. This will in turn create major geopolitical tensions, but I'm not saying it'll be a war just yet next year. Tensions in the US due to it being a political / election year will be increased, summer will be hot with fights and riots like we've seen before, and the lies of covid will continue but people will see their kids getting sick and the obvious damage the jabs have done will be clear. Of course, a decent portion will never admit that many people are harmed, will be harmed, and will die as a result of the jabberwocky, so that'll increase the suspicion each society has of the "other" that is so stupid and deluded they can't be reasoned with, and cause even more division with the sick, lying media at their back.

[Cool Breeze]

Respectfully,

You still don't understand the most basic concepts of Generational Dynamics.

You continue to deny that nuclear weapons will be used anywhere other then sea and you don't understand the cycle itself.

First Turning -- Austerity Period or High Period. When a crisis war ends, new emotions take over in the public. There's a relief that the country survived, there's acceptance of the victory or defeat and the compromises that were required, there's guilt and controversy at the atrocities committed by them and fury at atrocities committed by others, and most of all there's a determination that no such war must ever happen again. This is often a period of great prosperity, since there's plenty of land and food for the smaller population that survived the war, and there's a willingness to impose austere societal rules to guarantee that the nation will be safe from that time forward. (America's most recent austerity period began in 1945.)

Tim, I don't think that GD says that nuclear weapons have to be used everywhere. There will be a terrible war, hundreds of millions, if not Billions, will die, and it will be horrific for years. With modern military tech, we don't need nukes for that.

I just posted about when I think nukes will be used, and I believe it will be in the post WW3 environment. I put that post in the Theology thread.

WW1/WW2 is, in my opinion, a deviation from the overall GD theory. I think that WW3/WW4 (where nuclear weapons are used in regular course) will be a similar deviation.

WW1 was run by people who had some degree of decency and rational ability. WW2 was started and run by a couple of low-life psycopaths (Hitler and Stalin) who had absolutely no checks on their depravity. I think WW3 will be more like WW1, and WW4 (which will occur after a much shorter interval than WW1-WW2) will be stated/run by someone very similar to Hitler/Stalin. Someone willing to kill everyone and destroy everything. Basically the anti-Christ. WW3 will give him his opportunity to rise to power, just as it took WW1 to enable Hitler/Stalin (thru Lenin).

I know this is not the main theory here, just my personal opinion. We will all shortly see.

That's a good theory. As an approximation, when is your best guess of the time period this takes place, WW3 in the next 10 years and WW4 shortly after, or within 5-10 years of WW3?

[Navigator]

That's a good theory. As an approximation, when is your best guess of the time period this takes place, WW3 in the next 10 years and WW4 shortly after, or within 5-10 years of WW3?

WW3 within a year. WW4 within 5 years after end of WW3. But more likely just 3.5 years (there is a reason for that exact time, its 42 months, which is a time frame used in the Bible).

[tim]

Respectfully,

You still don't understand the most basic concepts of Generational Dynamics.

You continue to deny that nuclear weapons will be used anywhere other then sea and you don't understand the cycle itself.

First Turning -- Austerity Period or High Period. When a crisis war ends, new emotions take over in the public. There's a relief that the country survived, there's acceptance of the victory or defeat and the compromises that were required, there's guilt and controversy at the atrocities committed by them and fury at atrocities committed by others, and most of all there's a determination that no such war must ever happen again. This is often a period of great prosperity, since there's plenty of land and food for the smaller population that survived the war, and there's a willingness to impose austere societal rules to guarantee that the nation will be safe from that time forward. (America's most recent austerity period began in 1945.)

Tim, I don't think that GD says that nuclear weapons have to be used everywhere. There will be a terrible war, hundreds of millions, if not Billions, will die, and it will be horrific for years. With modern military tech, we don't need nukes for that.

I just posted about when I think nukes will be used, and I believe it will be in the post WW3 environment. I put that post in the Theology thread.

WW1/WW2 is, in my opinion, a deviation from the overall GD theory. I think that WW3/WW4 (where nuclear weapons are used in regular course) will be a similar deviation.

WW1 was run by people who had some degree of decency and rational ability. WW2 was started and run by a couple of low-life psycopaths (Hitler and Stalin) who had absolutely no checks on their depravity. I think WW3 will be more like WW1, and WW4 (which will occur after a much shorter interval than WW1-WW2) will be stated/run by someone very similar to Hitler/Stalin. Someone willing to kill everyone and destroy everything. Basically the anti-Christ. WW3 will give him his opportunity to rise to power, just as it took WW1 to enable Hitler/Stalin (thru Lenin).

I know this is not the main theory here, just my personal opinion. We will all shortly see.

A crisis war is a total war where nothing is considered off limits. There will be weapons used against civilians even worse then nuclear weapons that have yet to be developed. I've been looking into a theory of how the Chinese government is creating a database of American DNA from COVID tests in order to create biological weapons that once released will target the genetics of Americans specifically. Such a weapon would not kill Asian-Americans. Imagine a far more lethal COVID that only targeted non-Asian people.

The WWI and WWII criticism is nothing new and is usually an argument against the theory.

Nor did World War I exhibit this kind genocidal behavior in western Europe. I've found that those who compare WW I and WW II rarely have the vaguest idea what WW I was about, and simply assume that it was identical to WW II. I'll give just one stark example of the difference between the two wars: In WW II, Germany and Japan refused to surrender, even when it was certain that they would lose, and even when their cities were being firebombed and millions of civilians killed. But in WW I, Germany capitulated long before it had to; there was no genocidal climax, which is what characterizes a crisis war.

WWI should have a different name for the Western countries as it wasn't a crisis war. It was a political war for Europeans and Americans.

Why did nothing like this occur during WWII in Europe?

https://www.history.com/topics/world-wa ... ce-of-1914

The Christmas Truce occurred on and around Christmas Day 1914, when the sounds of rifles firing and shells exploding faded in a number of places along the Western Front during World War I in favor of holiday celebrations. During the unofficial ceasefire, soldiers on both sides of the conflict emerged from the trenches and shared gestures of goodwill.

Starting on Christmas Eve, many German and British troops fighting in World War I sang Christmas carols to each other across the lines, and at certain points the Allied soldiers even heard brass bands joining the Germans in their joyous singing.

At the first light of dawn on Christmas Day, some German soldiers emerged from their trenches and approached the Allied lines across no-man’s-land, calling out “Merry Christmas” in their enemies’ native tongues. At first, the Allied soldiers feared it was a trick, but seeing the Germans unarmed they climbed out of their trenches and shook hands with the enemy soldiers. The men exchanged presents of cigarettes and plum puddings and sang carols and songs. Some Germans lit Christmas trees around their trenches, and there was even a documented case of soldiers from opposing sides playing a good-natured game of soccer.

German Lieutenant Kurt Zehmisch recalled: “How marvelously wonderful, yet how strange it was. The English officers felt the same way about it. Thus Christmas, the celebration of Love, managed to bring mortal enemies together as friends for a time.”

These soldiers did not have genocidal hate for each other they were fighting a political war directed from the government. Americans today have no clue what WWI was about but even the average American can talk about WWII.

Contrast the Christmas Truce of 1914 to the Siege of Warsaw where German pilots specifically machine gunned Polish women who were digging up potatoes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65Nzii7tRc0

I believe John had said before WWI was a crisis war for the Eastern countries, Yugoslavia being one of them.

This makes sense as 1918 + 80 = 1998

In 1991 Yugoslavia had a crisis war, their civil war.

77 years after their crisis war of WWI, the 80 year cycle was right on time.

The Western countries being on the WWII crisis war timeline are approaching their next crisis war roughly 80 years later.

[Cool Breeze]

That's a good theory. As an approximation, when is your best guess of the time period this takes place, WW3 in the next 10 years and WW4 shortly after, or within 5-10 years of WW3?

WW3 within a year. WW4 within 5 years after end of WW3. But more likely just 3.5 years (there is a reason for that exact time, its 42 months, which is a time frame used in the Bible).

I get your framework. Wow, that's a bold call. I congratulate you for the balls to make it, but I find it unlikely. Hey, anything is possible I guess at this point.

[Cool Breeze]

I've been looking into a theory of how the Chinese government is creating a database of American DNA from COVID tests in order to create biological weapons that once released will target the genetics of Americans specifically. Such a weapon would not kill Asian-Americans. Imagine a far more lethal COVID that only targeted non-Asian people.

I don't doubt they are trying this, but it is a farce. Like AI stuff - all sizzle, no steak. There will be no biological weapon that will target "europeans" specifically.

Your imagination, as you say, is really running. Even in science fiction you'd barely see this stuff.

[Navigator]

WW1 / WW2 is a complex connected event. WW1 is widely dismissed in the USA.

It was a definite "crisis war" for France, Germany and Great Britain. (as well as Eastern European countries)

France was so psychologically damaged by the war, that their attempts at "never again" caused both appeasement and a disastrous "defensive" strategy for the next war. Great Britain even today views WW1 as far worse than WW2. Their version of memorial day is about "Flanders Fields", not Normandy.

All of these countries pulled out the stops to kill each other in WW1. Poison Gas, City Bombings, Naval blockades resulting in starvation (Germany suffered as many civilian deaths in WW1 as it did in WW2, from starvation).

France and Great Britain, post WW1, acted like countries that had just gone through a "Crisis War". Germany did not, though it should have. Same goes for Russia.

As for the 1914 Christmas truce, similar things happened in WW2 (though not on the Eastern Front).

Much more is going on with WW1/ WW2 than just Generational Dynamics.

[Guest]

All of these countries pulled out the stops to kill each other in WW1. Poison Gas, City Bombings, Naval blockades resulting in starvation (Germany suffered as many civilian deaths in WW1 as it did in WW2, from starvation).

China doesn't even have fresh water anymore. China needs to import food to feed its population. Imports stop with war. How will China feed its population?

I think they are hoping for a lot of Asian countries to surrender without a fight. The CCP plans to loot natural resources from other Asian countries.

I live in South Korea, the remainder of my family in Taiwan. Last week, I was at a meeting with almost a dozen Koreans and Taiwan came up. When I said that China will invade Taiwan in between April and October (as was voiced by Navigator), to my surprise, everyone agreed. "After the Winter Olympics", said one of the Koreans present.

I don't like to bring it up. It upsets people. But, there you have it. Some Koreans here are expecting war in Asia in 2022. I don't know how many. I try to avoid talking about it.

Today I went grocery shopping at a high-end department store, and Christmas was playing. I felt my stomach knotting up. It snowed today. My sister in Taiwan texted me and told me to buy warm clothing and stay warm. Everything hurts now.

I would rather be killed in a nuclear war than be enslaved by the CCP.

I worry President Moon will surrender. He is a dupe. I would be arrested and transported to a gulag with the rest of the foreigners. I want to die fighting.

[tim]

I've been looking into a theory of how the Chinese government is creating a database of American DNA from COVID tests in order to create biological weapons that once released will target the genetics of Americans specifically. Such a weapon would not kill Asian-Americans. Imagine a far more lethal COVID that only targeted non-Asian people.

I don't doubt they are trying this, but it is a farce. Like AI stuff - all sizzle, no steak. There will be no biological weapon that will target "europeans" specifically.

Your imagination, as you say, is really running. Even in science fiction you'd barely see this stuff.

From the Speech of Chi Haotian:

To resolve the issue of America we must be able to transcend conventions and restrictions. In history, when a country defeated another country or occupied another country, it could not kill all the people in the conquered land because back then you could not kill people effectively with sabers or long spears, or even with rifles or machine guns. Therefore, it was impossible to gain a stretch of land without keeping the people on that land. However, if we conquered America in this fashion, we would not be able to make many people migrate there.

Only by using special means to “clean up” America will we be able to lead the Chinese people there. This is the only choice left for us. This is not a matter of whether we are willing to do it or not. What kind of special means is there available for us to “clean up America”?

Conventional weapons such as fighters, canons, missiles and battleships won’t do; neither will highly destructive weapons such as nuclear weapons. We are not as foolish as to want to perish together with America by using nuclear weapons, despite the fact that we have been exclaiming that we will have the Taiwan issue resolved at whatever cost. Only by using non-destructive weapons that can kill many people will we be able to reserve America for ourselves. There has been rapid development of modern biological technology, and new bio-weapons have been invented one after another. Of course, we have not been idle, in the past years we have seized the opportunity to master weapons of this kind. We are capable of achieving our purpose of “cleaning up” America all of a sudden. When Comrade Xiaoping was still with us, the Party Central Committee had the perspicacity to make the right decision not to develop aircraft carrier groups and focus instead on developing lethal weapons that can eliminate mass populations of the enemy country.

From a humanitarian perspective, we should issue a warning to the American people and persuade them to leave America and leave the land they have lived in to the Chinese people. Or at least they should leave half of the United States to be China’s colony, because America was first discovered by the Chinese. But would this work? If this strategy does not work, then there is only one choice left to us. That is, use decisive means to “clean up” America and reserve America for our use in a moment. Our historical experience has proven that as long as we make it happen, nobody in the world can do anything about us. Furthermore, if the United States as the leader is gone, then other enemies have to surrender to us.

Biological weapons are unprecedented in their ruthlessness, but if the Americans do not die then the Chinese have to die. If the Chinese people are strapped to the present land, a total societal collapse is bound to take place.