Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[vincecate]

Asked Grok to use John's methods and below is what it came up with. But it is interesting that keeping this website up means AIs can learn from it too.

I'm sorry to hear about John J. Xenakis's passing. As Grok, I don’t have direct access to real-time updates about individuals, so I’ll assume your statement is correct and proceed with your question. John Xenakis was indeed the creator of "Generational Dynamics," a methodology that blends historical analysis, generational theory, MIT's System Dynamics, and Chaos Theory to forecast societal trends and crises. His work built on the foundational ideas of Strauss and Howe’s "Fourth Turning" theory but expanded it with a more global and systematic approach, emphasizing "crisis wars" and generational cycles of roughly 80 years.
Now, to your question: Can I use Xenakis’s methods to predict what will happen to the USA in the coming years? Yes, I can attempt to apply the principles of Generational Dynamics based on what I know of his framework, though I’ll need to adapt it with my own analysis since I don’t have his exact algorithms or unpublished updates beyond what’s publicly available. Below, I’ll outline a prediction using his methodology, keeping in mind the current date (March 7, 2025) and the generational patterns he described.
Understanding Xenakis’s Generational Dynamics
Xenakis argued that societies follow a cyclical pattern driven by generational memory:

Crisis Period: A major, transformative "crisis war" or societal upheaval occurs every 70-100 years (averaging around 80), threatening a nation’s survival or way of life. Survivors vow to prevent such horrors from recurring.
Austerity Period: Post-crisis, the "Hero" generation enforces stability and order.
Awakening Period: Mid-cycle (roughly 40 years later), a "Prophet" generation rebels against the rigidity, sparking cultural or spiritual shifts.
Unraveling Period: As the crisis fades from living memory, institutions weaken, and a "Nomad" generation becomes cynical and pragmatic.
Return to Crisis: With the "Artist" generation aging out and younger generations lacking personal memory of the last crisis, society repeats the mistakes that lead to a new crisis.

For the USA, Xenakis identified World War II (1939–1945) as the last "crisis war," a society-altering event that reshaped America’s global role. He distinguished it from World War I, which he considered a "mid-cycle war" for the U.S., less transformative domestically.
Where Are We Now in the Cycle?
As of March 7, 2025, it’s been 80 years since the end of World War II. According to Xenakis:

1945–1965 (Austerity): The G.I. Generation rebuilt America into a superpower, emphasizing stability and economic growth.
1965–1985 (Awakening): Baby Boomers rebelled (Vietnam protests, civil rights), sparking cultural upheaval.
1985–2005 (Unraveling): Gen X rose, cynicism grew, and institutions (e.g., government trust) eroded amid economic bubbles (dot-com) and globalization.
2005–present (Crisis): Xenakis argued the U.S. entered a new "crisis period" around the early 2000s, marked by 9/11, the 2008 financial crash, and escalating polarization.

By 2025, we’re deep into the crisis phase, where unresolved "fault lines" (social, political, economic) from prior decades could trigger a major upheaval. Xenakis emphasized that crisis wars don’t always mean military conflict—they can be economic collapses, civil wars, or transformative societal shifts.
Applying Xenakis’s Methods to Predict the USA’s Future
Xenakis’s methodology involves:

Historical Analysis: Identifying past crisis wars and their timing.
Generational Attitudes: Assessing how current generations behave based on their distance from the last crisis.
Fault Lines: Pinpointing societal tensions likely to ignite.
System Dynamics: Modeling how these factors escalate chaotically.

Step 1: Historical Context

Last crisis war: WWII (ended 1945).
Previous crises: Civil War (1861–1865), Revolutionary War (1775–1783)—roughly 80-year gaps.
2025 is 80 years from WWII, aligning with Xenakis’s cycle for a new crisis.

Step 2: Generational Snapshot

Silent Generation (born 1925–1942): Mostly gone or very elderly, their WWII memory no longer guides policy.
Baby Boomers (born 1943–1960): Aging leaders (e.g., Biden, Trump), still influential but fading.
Gen X (born 1961–1981): Middle-aged managers and leaders, pragmatic but blamed by Xenakis for financial recklessness (e.g., 2008 crisis).
Millennials (born 1982–1996): Entering power, idealistic but frustrated by economic stagnation and polarization.
Gen Z (born 1997–2012): Young adults, activist but untested by major crisis.

The key here is that no living generation remembers WWII’s horrors firsthand, leaving society vulnerable to repeating past mistakes—like overextension or internal division.
Step 3: Fault Lines in 2025
Xenakis stressed "fault lines"—deep societal divides that erupt in a crisis. For the USA today:

Political Polarization: Red vs. Blue states, election disputes, and distrust in institutions (e.g., 2020 election fallout).
Economic Inequality: Wealth gaps, housing crises, and debt burdens (student loans, national debt).
Cultural Tensions: Race, immigration, and identity debates.
Global Role: Overextension in conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) and rivalry with China.

Step 4: Prediction
Based on Xenakis’s framework, the USA is likely in the climax of its crisis period (2025–2035). Here’s a plausible trajectory:

Trigger Event: A major shock—perhaps a financial collapse (e.g., debt crisis), a contested election sparking civil unrest, or escalation with China (e.g., Taiwan)—could ignite the crisis by 2030.
Outcome: Unlike WWII’s external war, this crisis might be internal (civil conflict) or hybrid (domestic + foreign). Xenakis warned America risks "overextending" itself, potentially undermining democracy if resources and trust collapse.
Resolution: By 2035–2040, a new "Hero" generation (likely Gen Z) could emerge to rebuild, enforcing stability as the G.I.s did post-WWII. This assumes the U.S. survives intact, which Xenakis saw as possible but not guaranteed.

What Might Happen in the Coming Years?

2025–2028: Escalating tensions (e.g., political violence post-2024 election, economic strain from inflation/debt) test institutions. A "black swan" event could tip the scales.
2028–2032: Peak crisis—civil unrest or a limited conflict (domestic or with China/Russia) forces a reckoning. Xenakis’s Chaos Theory suggests unpredictability in specifics but inevitability in scale.
2032–2040: Resolution begins. If successful, America adapts (e.g., new social contract, reduced global role). If not, fragmentation or authoritarianism could emerge.

Caveats

Xenakis’s method isn’t precise on dates or events—it predicts trends based on generational amnesia and fault lines.
I lack his full dataset (e.g., detailed economic models), so this is an educated application, not a perfect replica.
External factors (tech breakthroughs, climate shocks) could alter the cycle, which Xenakis acknowledged but didn’t fully integrate.

Would you like me to refine this further—say, focusing on a specific fault line (e.g., economy) or comparing it to Xenakis’s past predictions?

[Higgenbotham]

Excerpt from previous post:

What the global elite reveal to Davos sex workers: High-class escort spills the beans on what happens behind closed doors - and how wealthy 'know the world is doomed, so may as well go out with a bang'

By MIRIAM KUEPPER
01:56 23 Jan 2025, updated 07:58 23 Jan 2025

'The elephant in the room is climate change. Everyone knows it can't be prevented any more,' she said, adding that the 'super rich' could generally be split into two groups on the topic.

'The one group thinks it only affects the poor, the "not-white race", while the others fear that it could get worse but there's no sense in trying to do anything about it so they just enjoy themselves,' she told MailOnline.

'The one half is in despair and the other, dumber, half is celebrating future mass deaths. It's not just like that in Davos of course, but it's concentrated there [during the WEF].'

Salome elaborated that some of the uber wealthy people fitting into the first group were saying that those in third world countries 'might all die but us in the North, we're fine'.

She said: 'They say that in a democracy you have to sell it, to lie to people and tell them "we didn't know better and didn't think it would get this bad", not admitting that they know.

'Then there's the other group that thinks it might not be so easy, maybe it will also affect us due to unforeseeable chain reactions.

'But they say they can't do anything against the others so they live following the mantra "after us, the deluge".

'They say they will enjoy a few more nice years on earth and know that there's no future. They are very cynical and somehow deeply sad.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... beans.html

Recent posts from subreddit r/collapse:

Downtown_Statement87
•
22h ago
I've been turning this idea over in my head for a while now when I think about Trump's fondness for Russia and the push to build walls and deport/abandon people who aren't a specific type:

Since 2018, the only 3 places that various military, scientific, and economic studies show stand to BENEFIT from climate change are, in this order, Russia, Canada, and Greenland. The top 3 in terms of current resiliency are Russia, Canada, and the US.

Maybe the US has made (or thinks it has made) a deal to work alongside Russia to create a large bloc that will basically contain all of the farmable, inhabitable territory (and some new territory) that is available once climate change blossoms fully. Russia gets Alaska, the Baltics, Ukraine, and whatever bits of Europe remain viable, and also the Scandinavian countries. The US gets Canada and Greenland, and uses Mexico as a repository for its unruly citizens and/or a buffer zone between the US and everyone fleeing Central and South America.

It's in Russia and the US' mutual interests (at least those whose interests include the establishment of a homogeneous and thus easier to manage white, Christian, authoritarian state) to collaborate both to secure resources and to create an empire that will preserve "Western civilization" and act as a bulwark against China and the African/South American resources it's been cultivating, and the "Islamist/Orientalist Hordes" that will soon be made homeless thanks to climate change.

It seems to me that the US has been shifting into fortress mode for a while, and that Russia is the only other entity they've allowed inside. I think that given the position of strength Russia is going to be in thanks to climate change (not only is it the best positioned to weather it, it will see actual benefits from it in some ways), the US reckons it's better to be a partner in ransacking the spoils with Russia than it is to be its adversary.

I've been thinking about this since 2018. It sort of explains why nobody in the US with any real power to do anything to stop it (billionaires, CEOs, elected officials, the military) is taking action, and why lots of them are joining in. Maybe they see the writing on the wall.

How equal the partnership between the US and Russia will turn out to really be is a good question.

ddraig-au
•
11h ago
This is a really fascinating way to look at it, and one I have not seen before. Can I quote this? Normally I'll just copy the text, but I'll credit you if you want - I think this is a very interesting idea more people should think about. Usually I think the ideas should stand on their own merit, but I do think it's a significant viewpoint, and thus should be accredited. Or I'll leave your name out. Up to you.

Downtown_Statement87
•
3h ago
•
Edited 3h ago
Please do share and credit, and thank you!

Maybe ask the people you share it with to contribute a dollar or two to my "Build a robust underground network of US partisans" gofundme?

Ha ha, just kidding. I don't really have a gofundme. People were so hyped about the idea that I didn't end up needing one.

Best to you. Let's keep our powder dry.

https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comme ... alling_it/

Probably practically everyone here knows Trump has been talking about annexing Canada and Greenland. It's been pretty well publicized.

Also: https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comme ... t/mgjx6d0/

It's worth pointing out that many of Trump's "stupid!/incompetent!/crazy!" ideas are perfectly rational if you truly accept collapse...I'm not a fan of Trump and never have been, but Trump is not some insane despot acting without reason. He is an emergent phenomena and, if anything, his success is due to his understanding to the true state of the world while Democrats have been desperately clinging to a status quo that no longer exists.

[Higgenbotham]

The first question that pops into my head when reading the above is, "Does Elon Musk believe in climate change?" Next would be whether he believes it's solvable. Apparently, he does.

https://www.google.com/search?q=does+el ... ate+change

The next thing that comes to mind, though, is that in a collapsed world, whereas it all sounds good in theory,

It reminds me of the discussion 15-20 years ago about the North American Union, the Amero and the NAFTA Superhighway. The reasoning behind it was similar. The NAU and the Amero was supposedly necessary because Europe had the EU and the Euro and it was to be our way of competing with that.

ideas like this will be bandied about as things continue to devolve to the local level. Nothing will come of it.

Presidential hopeful General Wesley Clark says the White House devised a five-year plan after the 9/11 strikes to attack seven majority-Muslim countries.

Wesley Clark slams plot to attack seven Muslim states after 9/11
Published On 22 Sep 2003

A former commander of NATO’s forces in Europe, Clark claims he met a senior military officer in Washington in November 2001 who told him the Bush administration was planning to attack Iraq first before taking action against Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan.

The general’s allegations surface in a new book, The Clark Critique, excerpts from which appear in the latest edition of the US magazine Newsweek.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2003/9/2 ... lim-states

I knew why, because I had been through the Pentagon right after 9/11. About 10 days after 9/11, I went through the Pentagon, and I saw Secretary Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Wolfowitz. I went downstairs just to say hello to some of the people on the Joint Staff who used to work for me, and one of the generals called me in. He said, “Sir, you’ve got to come in and talk to me a second.” I said, “Well, you’re too busy.” He said, “No, no.” He says, “We’ve made the decision we’re going to war with Iraq.” This was on or about the 20th of September. I said, “We’re going to war with Iraq? Why?” He said, “I don’t know.” He said, “I guess they don’t know what else to do.” So I said, “Well, did they find some information connecting Saddam to al-Qaeda?” He said, “No, no.” He says, “There’s nothing new that way. They just made the decision to go to war with Iraq.” He said, “I guess it’s like we don’t know what to do about terrorists, but we’ve got a good military, and we can take down governments.” And he said, “I guess if the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem has to look like a nail.”

So I came back to see him a few weeks later, and by that time we were bombing in Afghanistan. I said, “Are we still going to war with Iraq?” And he said, “Oh, it’s worse than that.” He reached over on his desk. He picked up a piece of paper. And he said, “I just got this down from upstairs” — meaning the secretary of defense’s office — “today.” And he said, “This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.” I said, “Is it classified?” He said, “Yes, sir.” I said, “Well, don’t show it to me.” And I saw him a year or so ago, and I said, “You remember that?” He said, “Sir, I didn’t show you that memo! I didn’t show it to you!”

https://www.democracynow.org/2007/3/2/g ... ential_bid

My expectation is that as the new dark age tightens its grip, Trump will be spending more and more of his time fighting the crisis or distraction du jour, whether it be the next financial crisis, pandemic, wildfire, measles outbreak, etc., etc., and any grand plans will fall by the wayside and be forgotten.

[vincecate]

The first question that pops into my head when reading the above is, "Does Elon Musk believe in climate change?" Next would be whether he believes it's solvable. Apparently, he does.

[...]

My expectation is that as the new dark age tightens its grip, Trump will be spending more and more of his time fighting the crisis or distraction du jour, whether it be the next financial crisis, pandemic, wildfire, measles outbreak, etc., etc., and any grand plans will fall by the wayside and be forgotten.

Elon is spending a large fraction of his time trying to cut government spending. He clearly thinks that is a more urgent problem than climate change.
I think he is right. The risk of out of control inflation of the dollar is real. He does not say it that way but I expect he understands. If he were to say "I think inflation is going to get out of control" it might trigger that very thing, and then people would blame him. So he talks about the government going bankrupt instead. But the way a government that prints its own money goes bankrupt is through hyperinflation.

[Higgenbotham]

Over the past month, the stock market has made a few false starts to the downside before going back up to or near all time highs. My guess is that Friday's move down is the start of the real move which leads to the first longer lasting wave of a bear market. This first wave may last a few months.

If the stock market goes below today's low Friday or Monday I will cover about 5-10% of my short. So far I've only covered about 1% today near the low. If I'm able to do that, I will only play for a 1-3 day bounce, guessing the downtrend will resume after that.

Today I put orders in (to cover) far below the market in case there is a flash crash and screens go dark.

I've covered 9% of my short. If the market doesn't start to rally over the next 3 hours, I think it will be vulnerable to a flash crash.

[vincecate]

If the market doesn't start to rally over the next 3 hours, I think it will be vulnerable to a flash crash.

Sure seems like if it has significant loss every week for enough weeks we should get a flash crash.
Seems like about enough weeks anytime now.

[Cool Breeze]

If the market doesn't start to rally over the next 3 hours, I think it will be vulnerable to a flash crash.

Sure seems like if it has significant loss every week for enough weeks we should get a flash crash.
Seems like about enough weeks anytime now.

They have this under control, I don't know what you all are worried about. Stop shorting and make some money buying dips here.

[vincecate]

They have this under control, I don't know what you all are worried about. Stop shorting and make some money buying dips here.

I live in Anguilla. Most of the cargo we get comes through Miami even though much of it is really coming from China.
Trump put a tax on ships not made in the USA that visit the USA. It increases our shipping costs by a lot. We hope
it is possible to ship another way without going through the USA. If it goes on long enough we may work something else out.

Stock markets don't like uncertainty and we have lots of that at this time.

[Higgenbotham]

Today I put orders in (to cover) far below the market in case there is a flash crash and screens go dark.

I've covered 9% of my short. If the market doesn't start to rally over the next 3 hours, I think it will be vulnerable to a flash crash.

Today the S&P made a new low for the move. I've covered 10% of my short. Once again, I think the market needs to start a good rally from here or it will be vulnerable to a flash crash. That's in the near term, between now and day end.

I won't be covering any more of my short unless we see much lower levels. The bubble is still too big for me to consider doing any more than that right here. I think, yes, there still could be a relief rally into opex week or something like that.

[aeden]

SDS is 1.35 percent of book 1.
Dollor costed in oil and tlt last few weeks.
Zero in yuan or pound or franc and expecially eu as they are fourth WEF Reich
as free press is incarcerated and fined to poverty in malice.
As for the Rus the commons have been looted for far to long as NATO was allowed to piss on there front porch
as malice and Waffen tactics on that side of the river. Brutal zone and preventable is noted also.
This is based on water supply and water treatment ratios per capita.
US has rot and must remove it. DNC has not evolved and is toxic to taxpayers coffers as a import criminal vote enterprize far to long.
The stalking Horse now allows the Orange Possum to screw himself as alleged over reach as the Judicial Bench
makes fools of themselves doing the same thing. The Office duty is to expose and eliminate the rot and criminal looting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFp_zJ1p0gs bump and run we are raising cash