Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

During the Greenspan era, it was thought by some that blowing a generational bubble was OK because it would give the new technologies time to be commercialized and there would be some long term benefit to getting the internet companies established, then popping the bubble to revert everything back to the mean while the strongest internet companies survived and the US took the lead. In the early 2000s that thinking seemed to change and the US lost its way is my version of what happened. But before I go any further I will try to dig up some evidence for the first sentence.

Here's a recent article that's of the opinion that the Internet bubble and Greenspan's role in it is justified even today. This same logic was very common in the late 1990s.

A Reflection on The Dot Com Bubble

David Bice
Economist
Published Jun 1, 2023

Bubbles are bad, we can all agree on that. But what if, at least, some bubbles have a beneficial role to play in an economy? What if they serve as a driving force for innovation and rapid adoption of new technologies? What if halting the bubble would reduce the potential benefits rather than protect the economy? The recent Dot Com Bubble was just such a beneficial event, and the current AI tech mania may be an extension of it. The Dot Com Bubble, in addition to minting millionaires and billionaires, unleashed a creative explosion that still reverberates today. The dream of massive riches was the driving force behind the bubble, and still is, but the widespread improvement in many areas of the economy is the true benefit to the country.

This benefit also answers the question of whether this was a rational or irrational response by investors. Despite the seeming irrationality of the Dot Com market, it was clearly a rational response to the creation of very lucrative future opportunities. Investors could see the potential for massive returns in the online markets, what they could not see was how it would be made and by which companies. The array of technology offerings and the multitude of firms presented a seemingly impossible task to choose the right opportunities. Investors, however, solved the problem by choosing one of two approaches – buy them all or only buy the winners.

There has been debate between the efficient market adherents and the behavioralist wing in economics as to whether this was a rational or irrational event, and indeed even if it were a bubble at all. There are some asset price bubbles which appear to be irrational in nature, but are in fact consistent with a rational, efficient market. These bubbles tend to be created by revolutionary technologies that will sweep away the old established order and usher in a new era.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has defended the Fed’s actions concerning the Nasdaq stocks, largely on the basis that to fight the bubble would have required the Fed to send the economy into a major recession. The benefits, if any, of pricking the bubble did not appear to outweigh the costs involved and thus no action was taken. An examination of the situation shows both Greenspan and the efficient marketers to be correct, although a fuller explanation is required.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflecti ... david-bice

[Guest]

During the Greenspan era, it was thought by some that blowing a generational bubble was OK because it would give the new technologies time to be commercialized and there would be some long term benefit to getting the internet companies established, then popping the bubble to revert everything back to the mean while the strongest internet companies survived and the US took the lead. In the early 2000s that thinking seemed to change and the US lost its way is my version of what happened. But before I go any further I will try to dig up some evidence for the first sentence.

The reality is that Greenspan really didn't know what he was doing.

He lost his way when he abandoned the gold standard.

Roosevelt took the US off the gold standard in 1933.

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-his ... d-standard

I was talking about Greenspan's support for reinstating the gold standard as he wrote about in 1981. He talked about issuing special gold backed US dollars to begin with.

Then he stopped talking about it in 1982.

[Guest]

It's hard to believe that Ronald Reagan nominated Greenspan to be the Federal Reserve Chairman.

I agree. We blew our chance.

[aeden]

https://youtu.be/DxRwDDLV1jI?t=16

He survived we are getting him here as written.
Total carnage.
Network of the People indicate over 60 in treatment at hospital.

[Higgenbotham]

Warren Buffett is now 'as bearish as he ever gets,' says Bill Smead

Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to share his reactions to Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting over the weekend.

MON, MAY 6 20241:29 PM EDT

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/05/06/w ... smead.html?

[Guest]

Record Wave of Americans Fled Big Cities for Small Ones in 2023

As usual, the mainstream media refuses to tell the truth. The western media are nothing but cowards and traitors.

People are heading for the hills because they know that the illegal migrants and other ethnic minorities have already made American cities unlivable.

(Bloomberg) -- Score a victory for Mayberry. America’s small towns, like the iconic setting of television’s The Andy Griffith Show from the 1960s, saw more in-migration in 2023 than larger areas for the first time in decades.

The remote work boom that prompted Americans to flee urban areas for mountain hamlets and seaside towns during the pandemic continued at least through last year, according to University of Virginia demographer Hamilton Lombard. An estimated 291,400 people last year migrated from other areas into America’s small towns and rural areas, which Lombard defines as metropolitan areas with 250,000 people or fewer.

That number exceeded net migration into larger areas for the first time since at least the 1970s, estimated Lombard, who works with the university’s Demographics Research Group.

Areas with 250,000 to 1 million people saw a net in-migration of 266,448 people last year, while areas with 1 million to 4 million people recorded only a modest gain. Areas with more than 4 million people were the big losers, shedding almost 600,000 people last year, according to Lombard’s research using US Census Bureau data.


“With a third of workdays being done remotely in 2023, Americans have more geographic flexibility and have been increasingly willing to move far from large population centers if their destination offers a good quality of life,” Lombard wrote.

The study focuses only on in-country migration, and does not include immigration from outside the US.

Starbucks Responds
The influx of people is already changing the Mayberry-esque nature of the US’ small towns. In southern Virginia, tiny Martinsville, once dubbed the world’s “Sweatshirt Capital” for its textile industry, has seen some of the state’s strongest wage growth. Its domestic migration rate ranked second in Virginia last year.

Starbucks noticed the growth and in 2021 opened its first coffee shop in Martinsville, Lombard noted in his report. Since then the ubiquitous chain has spread across other southern Virginia towns, he said.


To be sure, the continued growth of small towns depends, in part, on the work-from-home trend continuing, Lombard said. He pointed to research on remote work from Stanford University, which estimated that about 28% of paid days in the US as of March were work-from-home days. That’s down from the pandemic period, but far higher than before Covid.

“If remote work sticks around, it seems like this trend will stick around,” Lombard said.

[Higgenbotham]

Record Wave of Americans Fled Big Cities for Small Ones in 2023

I guess I'm part of this statistic. Anyway, I saw a headline this week that said home gardening leaves a 5-6 times greater carbon footprint than producing the equivalent on large commercial farms.

The Telegraph

Carbon footprint of homegrown food five times greater than those grown conventionally
Joe Pinkstone
January 22, 2024·3 min read

Tomatoes and asparagus were among the best vegetables to grow in allotments according to the study
Growing your own food in an allotment may not be as good for the environment as expected, a study suggests.

The carbon footprint of homegrown foods is five times greater than produce from conventional agricultural practices, such as rural farms, data show.

A study from the University of Michigan looked at how much CO2 was produced when growing food in different types of urban farms and found that, on average, a serving of food made from traditional farms creates 0.07kg of CO2.

The impact on the environment is almost five times higher at 0.34kg per portion for individual gardens, such as vegetable patches or allotments.

The majority of the emissions do not come from the growing of the food themselves, the scientists say, but from the infrastructure needed to allow the food to be grown.

Researchers grouped urban agriculture sites into three categories: individual or family gardens, including allotments; collective gardens, such as community gardens; and larger, commercial-orientated urban farms.

Jake Hawes, a PhD candidate at Michigan and first author of the study, said: “The most significant contributor to carbon emissions on the urban agriculture sites we studied was the infrastructure used to grow the food – from raised beds to garden sheds to pathways, these constructions had a lot of carbon invested in their construction.

“Poorly managed compost and other synthetic inputs can also be important contributors, though they were not the majority on most of our sites.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/carbon-footp ... 47599.html

In this Dark Age Hovel, similar ideas have already been covered. Most people who move out to a rural area, do a remodeling project, and similar, think it needs to involve buying lots and lots of stuff. That's American culture. It's pretty much automatic.

There's a thread in permies.com of all places (in other words, a permaculture site) where a woman in my area describes what she did to prepare a garden plot. She ended up hiring a contractor to use a Deere compact track loader to scrape off all her topsoil and one foot of subsoil, then mix the topsoil with purchased amendments and put the mix back in her garden plot. That was just the beginning, as the site construction followed with gravel paths, 8 feet high fencing, and probably more once the contractor was done. That all happened after she found out raised beds didn't work for her.

Here at the Dark Age Hovel, there was a heavy rain a few days ago and the water flow on the land could be observed. There are some slopes that I'm trying to figure out how to best take advantage of. This morning I finished digging another compost pit (by hand). Admittedly, it's hard work in the Texas heat and humidity. The first pit is nearly full (all materials obtained for free on foot) and the second is 50 percent bigger but only covers 12 sq ft.



I will need to purchase some materials to keep the rabbits out. Working to figure out how to keep that to a minimum.

This project will go on and on for years and will mostly be discussed in the context of how it fits in with current news and trends, as above.

[Higgenbotham]

In this Dark Age Hovel, similar ideas have already been covered. Most people who move out to a rural area, do a remodeling project, and similar, think it needs to involve buying lots and lots of stuff. That's American culture. It's pretty much automatic.

Even in a rural area where country folk are expected to do better I don’t think many will fare well as chainsaws are common while crosscut saws and axes are not.

I agree. Most people can't get it out of their heads that tools must be petroleum or otherwise powered and there is simply no alternative. I believe that's an artifact of the mindset the Industrial Age produces. Practically everyone I know who moves out on some acreage sends photos of their new petroleum powered gizmo. And if "this petroleum powered gizmo" is not working out, then surely "that petroleum powered gizmo" is the only alternative that can be considered.

[Guest]

Record Wave of Americans Fled Big Cities for Small Ones in 2023

I guess I'm part of this statistic. Anyway, I saw a headline this week that said home gardening leaves a 5-6 times greater carbon footprint than producing the equivalent on large commercial farms.

The government wants dependency on the state--slavery. At this rate, Americans and western Europeans will starve to death.

[Higgenbotham]

Likewise, not only will the infrastructure of roads, bridges and electrical systems not be maintained or replaced, vandals will rip up whatever they can salvage and cart it away - guard rails, manhole covers, or what have you.

Houston police discuss ‘disturbing uptick’ in copper wire thefts

The Houston Police Department and other law enforcement groups had a news conference on Wednesday to raise awareness about copper wire thefts.

HOUSTON – The Houston Police Department and other law enforcement groups held a news conference Wednesday to raise awareness about copper wire thefts.

The HPD Metal Theft Unit, the Harris County Sheriff’s Office, and Crime Stoppers said copper thefts are up in our area, with criminals targeting fiberoptic cables.

Sgt. Bob Carson with the Metal Theft Unit said these wires are critical to our infrastructure, and can knock out internet and power for homes, businesses, and hospitals.

“It impacts the people’s ability to call 911. It impacts the pharmacy to be able to log in and assign you a prescription... It’s affecting everyone,” said Carson.

Officials say if you see someone suspicious pulling out fiberoptic cables, contact law enforcement immediately to investigate.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/loca ... re-thefts/

What's most interesting to me about this article is the Houston PD has a Metal Theft Unit.