Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/artic ... ne.0081855

We will see over 8 to 18 months as indicated earlier on the notes.
Both zones understand the outcomes in this sanctioned effort.
The main blowback was transparency and consumers actual conditions.
The fisher rule and the taylor rule as we also noted in the fed papers.

The Cantillon Effect describes the uneven effect inflation has on goods and assets in an economy.
Since new fiat money is injected into an economy at specific points,
its effects are felt by different people and industries at different times.

The next wave of the mid business bankruptcy's are going to be devastating. Tipping point unclear.
Soft landing is a fantasy.

Several sovereign states have collaborated with the DCMA on a Model Law for an international CBDC,
or money commodity, and have provided draft legislation.
https://umu.cash/documents/umu_whitepaper

[aeden]

Wife and more sorting supplies for the elderly.
Just got a 1-year-old border collie. Free.
Food.
Overall, the numbers seen reflect what we rather anticipated in this crushing effect seen coming.
Some may say that's normalcy bias effects.
Ahhhhh no, get out more.
Maybe the latest Harry Dent rant dinged my normalcy bias getting older.

[Higgenbotham]

https://cleanenergyadvocates.typepad.co ... rticle.gif

[aeden]

If you give people light, they will find their own way.
Dante Alighieri

[Higgenbotham]

The following is a brief summary of the thoughts posted over the years about the information age and the Singularity with a few added items for clarification. Although I have an engineering degree (discussed and proof posted on earlier pages), I considered myself a tourist in the technology field and post this primarily as a generalist. The recent news about ChatGPT prompted this.

1. The Romans had a crude industrial society coming into form, having developed a steam engine that might be characterized as more of a museum piece and water wheels throughout Europe. The mainstream answer to why this didn't continue in straight line fashion would probably be that the Roman Empire collapsed and therefore the industrial age had to wait. My answer, and I've never seen it offered anywhere else, is that the industrial age had to wait for the necessary social and political development to happen before it could be successful. This would be some version of the "invisible hand" operating in human affairs. Some of the necessary developments were the Magna Carta, gunpowder, and the printing press. The information age is in a similar place to where the industrial age was in late Roman times. To be successful, similar social and political developments will need to take place. We can only imagine what those might be.

For anyone who may have missed the subtle connection between these two posts,

It may well be that it was man's unwillingness to depend on slave labor for energy needs that turned the minds of medieval Europeans to search for alternative sources of energy, thus sparking the power revolution of the Middle Ages which paved the way for the industrial revolution of the 19th century.

[aeden]

Dante's work was the bridge between medieval and Renaissance Europe as the focus of art and thought shifted from religious affairs to those of humanity. He was exiled for thought. Now they insult you for the space between your ears not knowing what already happened thinking they do.

"We've never seen a smaller generation [Millennials] following a bigger one [Boomers]," said Dent. "[The] Baby Boomers caused the greatest boom in history… from 1983 to 2007. And ever since, why have they [The Fed] been stimulating so hard?... Because you're fighting a downtrend. The biggest generation in history is dying."
Dent opined that long-term U.S. treasury bonds will be the best-performing asset. He also thinks that gold's price will fall.

As we noted early, wake me up when gold hits $1000.

We posted the chart that the steam engine stopped the accumulation.
https://escholarship.org/content/qt56m1 ... m1k703.pdf
https://i.stack.imgur.com/NIHJB.jpg

We are reading and seeing more than millions of dollars losses when they destroy assets for power engineering.
https://www.niulpestore.org/

[Higgenbotham]

My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.
• The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.
• There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.
• Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.
• The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.
• Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.

Since the covid related supply chain disruptions, some literature has appeared which describes what the problem is and how the underlined sentences relate to each other. This is the immediate problem that the financial crisis will cause, if it is severe enough. He mentions the interbank lending market in the article.

THE TRANSACTIONAL DYNAMICS OF
MARKET FRAGILITY

MATTHEW JENNEJOHN *

Copyright © 2022 by Matthew Jennejohn.
This Article is also available online at http://lcp.law.duke.edu/.
* Professor of Law, BYU Law School. Many thanks to Mark Gergen, Cathy Hwang, Juliet Kostritsky,
Jeff Lipshaw, and Jonathan Lipson for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Special thanks to Glen
Thurston for excellent research assistance.


INTRODUCTION

One way to frame the post-Cold War era of U.S. economic history is as a
revolution in contract design. If the vertically integrated company was the
hallmark of the mid-twentieth century economy, then complex contractual
arrangements are the essence of early twenty-first century economic
organization. Contractual innovation underpins everything from the rise of
private equity to the financial products that precipitated the 2008 financial crisis.
Contract’s revolutionary role has not, however, been isolated to Wall Street.
The less glamorous world of procurement has also undergone a similar
transformation. The time where the modal procurement transaction involved a
routine call, to be later memorialized in a purchase order, by a purchasing
manager at a large conglomerate to the sales office at a supplier to request a
shipment of commodity parts is a largely distant memory.
Supply relationships are less unidimensional now. Before, a significant
amount of production was handled in-house at the vertically integrated
manufacturer, and so procurement was rather straightforward, limited largely to
raw materials or other commodities. That changed as growing global product
market competition caught producers between demands for faster technological
innovation and rapid cost reduction. Many producers responded by “de-
verticalizing.” 1 Mid-century corporate monoliths simultaneously shed
subsidiaries, exiting the internal production of sub-systems, and expanded their
contractual relationships with suppliers. Replacing internal production with
contractual relationships gave producers both greater access to technological
innovation and flexibility. Instead of developing a product internally, one could
buy it from a third-party supplier fully invested in innovating in their area. And,
if the development relationship did not work out, then the supplier could, more
or less, be replaced. As a result, vast and carefully articulated supply chains grew.
The thousands of suppliers, sub-suppliers, and sub-sub-suppliers from all corners
of the world developing systems for Boeing’s commercial airplanes are a
canonical example.
Shifting production to contractual relationships introduces new types of risk,
however. Just as new contractual innovations brought us the financial products
that fueled crisis a little over a decade ago,2 the contractual remaking of modern
supply chains has resulted in profound social costs.
We experienced particularly tragic versions of those costs as COVID-19
closed production facilities around the world in early 2020. As the supply of key
components was disrupted, lifesaving items, such as masks and other protective
materials, were scarce. Disruptions spread across the exchange networks on
which modern life relies, amplifying the consequence of outbreaks in different
localities. In a word, the distributed markets of twenty-first century capitalism
can be extremely “fragile,” in the sense that they are systemically sensitive to
disturbances.
Proposals for improving market resilience fall into a number of categories.
Economic commentary has focused upon re-verticalizing production within firms
and, relatedly, re-shoring production within national boundaries. Others argue
that public lending—ad hoc versions of which were deployed during the
pandemic to shore up struggling companies—should play a larger role. Appetite
on both sides of the U.S. bipartisan divide for industrial policy has been renewed,
a possibility all but unthinkable a decade ago.

1. Matthew C. Jennejohn, Collaboration, Innovation, and Contract Design, 14 S TAN. J. L. B US. &
F IN. 83, 91 (2009); see generally Ronald J. Gilson, Charles Sabel & Robert E. Scott, Contracting for
Innovation: Vertical Disintegration and Interfirm Collaboration, 109 C OLUM. L. REV. 431 (2009);
Jonathan C. Lipson, Promising Justice: Contract (as) Social Responsibility, 2019 WIS. L. REV. 1109 (2019).
J ENNEJOHN (DO NOT DELETE) 4/24/2022 7:53 PM
282 LAW AND CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS [Vol. 85: 281]

https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/vi ... ontext=lcp

No worries, they're on it now!

The above is a theoretical overview. The best specific practical discussions from people who have knowledge that I've seen have been in the comments sections of Gail's blog from two posters going back over a decade.

I quoted one of these comments in 2014 but rather than requoting their stuff, will just provide links that will access all of their posts, as many, many of them are worth reading, in my opinion, for those who wish to understand the nuts and bolts of what will likely happen when a sufficient shock collides with a brittle system, resulting in supply chain disruptions.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Symboli ... eworld.com
https://www.google.com/search?q=CTG+sit ... eworld.com

This is the link from 2014 in this forum where I quoted one of these posts: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=24481&hilit=dupont#p24481

Also, something that has come to mind in recent days are the discussions about how people will be at each other's throats as the collapse takes place, which I painted with a broad brush at the beginning of this topic when someone mentioned mad max. I think it's important to understand that the US is a big and variable country and what happens in one area may not happen much at all in another area. My guess is that people's disagreements stem in large part from having lived in areas of the US that are vastly different.

Anyway, this thread gives some background to the small paragraph at the top of this post and, while it is by no means complete, probably enough has been said to give an overview as to why the words are what they are (the 90% kill rate, for example). Also, thanks to all the guests for emphasizing the waterborne disease issue. Not enough has been said about that over the years and it will likely be a big contributor.

[aeden]

https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapt ... /c1025.pdf
Offsets and the importance of inputs for stability ignored far to long.
It was said they do not even pretend to want to see it.
This is beyond fact now.
Decline in social utility was impossible to miss.

[Higgenbotham]

No one starved to death when I was fighting in Chechnya against the invading Russian army. People got really thin during the siege of Grozny, but no one starved to death. Outside of violent deaths, the number one, two, and three killer was waterborne illness/ infection. It almost killed me. Some form of infection will kill you quickly. When the electricity goes out and the pumps will go dead. Most will die of infection before they starve to death.

Looking at the city's web site, the main pumping station is 2.5 miles from the wastewater treatment plant. According to an elevation map separate from their web site, the main pumping station has an elevation about 50 feet below the wastewater treatment plant. According to the city's web site, once treated, it is gravity fed back into the river.

What I believe the Chechnen guest is referring to is that, as an example, in the city of about 30,000 which I am describing the details of, the sewage flows by gravity to its lowest point by the river where the pumping station is located. The city's web site says the flow of sewage is 5.5 million gallons per day. If the electricity goes out, there will be emergency backup pumps. I think those are diesel powered. Not sure how much backup is required. It may be in the range of 24 to 72 hours, but those details can be found in the codes. The wastewater treatment plant will, I believe, also have emergency backup. If it appears the diesel backup supply will be exhausted, I'm not sure what the procedures will be from there, but surely any interruption of electricity and diesel for more than about 3 days will be a problem. That's as much as I know offhand.

[Realist Ogre]

The exact same evil entity. And it's whispering the exact same things.

The Rabbi is correct as the media whistles the same tune.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TMhHIqfrrA&t=30s
They come back worse.
Matthew 12:45 True.
Retards in a plain and simple terms.

Suffer irreparable harm is the plan EV on down. Lunatics normalcy bias is deeper than the lies told to Eve
and the EV cults who know it's a lie also. Tech they cannot even fathom unleashed on the broken in the fatal deceit.

This video on the massacre by a transgender was profound and deeply moving. How quickly this tragedy was memory holed by the media and Biden administration. Thank you for posting it.

We are in a battle for our very souls.

God Bless Donald Trump and God bless America.

Three 9 year old school children brutally murdered and the American media hits the alarm button and spews out panicky denunciations of transphobia. It's beyond disturbing. It's shocking. But we now live in a society without empathy. Without common decency. American society has become degenerate. Urban violence, especially against whites (and to a lesser extent) Asians is quickly and quietly ignored. How will American society regenerate with these sociopathic criminals? Will American society truly regenerate during a new world war?

It won't.

American society will splinter because it has to if any part of it is to survive. We reached the fork in the road decades ago. You decide which one you will take (if you have a choice). I am taking the road less travelled. Partition. Succession. And, if necessary, foreign flight.