Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

A friend stopped by last night and he brought up covid and the vax. Before discussing that, what comes to mind is what Donald Rumsfeld said about information. Rumsfeld said there are 3 kinds of information. There are things that you know that you know. There are things that you know that you don't know. Finally, there are things that you don't know that you don't know. 20 years ago, I decided to write down things that I know that I know about what is happening in the world. These were just broad categories of things. I have the list in a notebook and it's not handy right now, but there were things like there is a biotech revolution ongoing, there is an information revolution ongoing, there is an unsustainable increase in debt and derivatives, natural resources are becoming harder to extract or scarcer, etc. It wasn't a long list. After doing that exercise, it made me realize there wasn't a lot that I know that I know about the world. Anyway, information about covid and the vax falls into all 3 of these categories of information. One of the problems with covid and the vax (and generally) is that when leaders can't or won't convey known information to the people they have the authority and responsibility to lead it is natural for rumor and speculation to fill that vacuum. When that happens, often leaders will say there is a problem with rumor mongers and blame the "rumor mongers" for their failure (the leaders that is) to convey the necessary information to avoid the natural tendency for rumor and speculation to fill the vacuum they have left in the first place. People in positions of leadership ought to understand that the burden is on them to provide all of the information necessary for the functioning of whatever organization or group they are leading and to also be able to say they don't know when they don't. Of course, this gets complicated and goes far beyond what is going to be said about it here and that fact ought to be discussed openly too, but it is not.

My friend spends a lot of time trying to figure out what is going on in the world and, as I do with everyone else I know personally including family members, I let him speak without making any judgments. My sister was heavily into QAnon and mostly I let her talk about it without passing judgment on it like the crap you read in HuffPost and other places. I may get back to that later. He started by talking about free energy, green energy and oil. He thinks that the reason the authorities are steering us away from oil and toward green energy is that the green energy thing is really fake and they know it, but they also know that free energy is out there in the future and that is really where things are heading. I said so you get an electric car and charge it up for free? He said free for them but not free for us.

About covid, he said it is his belief that everyone has long covid to some extent. He said people who got the vax still have the stuff from the vax in their body and they essentially have long covid too. He said whether you get covid or the vax you are screwed anyway. Like me, he hasn't had the vax. He discussed the fact that he has had covid at least 3 times starting early in 2020 and the various long covid symptoms he has had, most recently being Achilles tendonitis. He then brought up a list of research papers on his phone that link covid to Achilles tendon problems. Anyway, I told him that he is the only one I know who shares my belief about covid and the vax. Yes, whether you get the vax or not you are screwed and everyone has long covid to some extent whether it's from covid or the vax. Of course, opinions will vary widely because there is so much information that falls into the latter 2 categories of Rumsfeld's classifications of information, with most people picking a side.

[Higgenbotham]

This was written almost 3 years ago as the first wave of covid was sweeping through the world. It remains my belief that covid was a minor pandemic on the way to something much worse.

This remains my top scenario (outlined starting a couple years ago) but the hardest thing to say is whether this is the big one or whether the big one is still coming. I'm inclined to think this is NOT the big one yet...

I'm expecting wave after wave of pandemics to sweep the world. How long it takes for the second wave of pandemic to sweep through will make some difference. If it's 6 months from now and the second wave is worse, that won't be good.

Wave after wave? Why?

The first reason is that with any particular virus, it will typically sweep through the world multiple times. The 1918 flu pandemic did that, as Vince notes above.

The second reason is that there are multiple lethal viruses other than COVID-19 that exist in multiple laboratories right now that can be released either by accident or on purpose.

The third reason is that as the first wave of pandemic wears down the population, the population becomes more susceptible. This susceptibility can result in another pandemic, even from an existing virus that the population was previously immune to.

The fourth reason is that the technology now exists for lone wolves, terrorist groups, and governments to create more lethal viruses that don't presently exist for the purpose of creating havoc or for warfare.

To me, the question is not if, but when, the second and more lethal wave sweeps through.

Same with the vax (and Bitcoin for that matter since both were lumped in together here).

It's a good analogy in the sense that both the mRNA vaccine and Bitcoin are promoted as some whiz-bang technical thing that people need. To me and billions of other people, not millions, it doesn't matter what authorities say to promote the vaccine or what authorities say to denigrate Bitcoin.

So, to me and billions of others, the mRNA vaccine and Bitcoin are quite analogous. They are technological curiosities that are of no interest or relevance. All of the debates and who says what are just noise. When all is said in done, neither will be more than a historical footnote.

However, having repeated that, it might be a good idea to repeat this too:

That's why I have said that everyone should do their own assessment and preparation in line with their unique knowledge and experience. Some will be optimally prepared for the scenario that ultimately takes place and most won't. But if at least some are that is a good thing. I have no problem whatsoever with someone disagreeing with my assessment of the most probable scenario going forward. It's essential that people do disagree and take a variety of paths going forward.

[Higgenbotham]

The next phrase that came up was sort of whispered. It was, "We hire the best engineers and consultants that money can buy and we don't understand why this is happening." That wasn't true either. Their engineers and consultants weren't very good and some of them were downright terrible.

Their engineers and consultants did a lot of dumb things but, fundamentally, the dumbest thing I saw came out of a consultant's office in Texas that was doing millions of dollars of work for the petrochemical industry. This consultant had done dozens of pages of calculations for the petrochemical complex I was in where he assumed the composition of a multicomponent mixture in the vapor phase was equal to the composition in the liquid phase, failing to use basic laws applicable to multicomponent mixtures (assuming ideality).

This consultant is still on linkedin peddling himself as a serial entrepreneur with 500+ connections!

When I pointed this out to a top company official, he called the consultant and had him fly up to the facility. We sat down in a room and discussed this and then the company fired the consultant on the spot. This was after the engineers at the company had already approved the job and paid him for the work.

This quote shows the basic concepts for how to do these calculations, with the link showing the subscripts and superscripts. I think this is either high school or first semester college chemistry. No engineering knowledge is required.

What are the partial pressures of benzene and toluene in a solution in which the mole fraction of benzene is 0.6? What is the total vapor pressure? The vapor pressure of pure benzene is 95.1 mm Hg and the vapor pressure of pure toluene 28.4 mm Hg at 25oC.

Solution
If χbenzene=0.6 , than χtoluene=0.4 because 1−0.6=0.4 .

Now that we know the mole fractions and vapor pressures, this problem is a cinch.

Pbenzene = xbenzenePbenzene = (0.6)(95.1 mm Hg) = 57.1 mm Hg
Ptoluene = xtoluenePtoluene = (0.4)(28.4 mm Hg) = 11.4 mm Hg

The total vapor pressure is simply the sum of the partial pressures:

Ptotal = Pbenzene + Ptuolene = 57.1 mm Hg + 11.4 mm Hg = 68.5 mm Hg

https://chem.libretexts.org/Bookshelves ... lt%27s_Law

[John]

Sunday December 23rd, 2022.

When I pointed this out to a top company official, he called the consultant and had him fly up to the facility. We sat down in a room and discussed this and then the company fired the consultant on the spot. This was after the engineers at the company had already approved the job and paid him for the work.

this is an interesting story, and sounds quite credible, except for one thing: it would be a lot more believable if you had been fired instead of the consultant.

[Higgenbotham]

Sunday December 23rd, 2022.

When I pointed this out to a top company official, he called the consultant and had him fly up to the facility. We sat down in a room and discussed this and then the company fired the consultant on the spot. This was after the engineers at the company had already approved the job and paid him for the work.

this is an interesting story, and sounds quite credible, except for one thing: it would be a lot more believable if you had been fired instead of the consultant.

This was in 1998.

Even in 1998 with a Silent in charge of the company? The reason I picked that is both Berkshire Hathaway and this company were run by Silents who were billionaires.

[John]

Friday, December 23rd, 2022.

in 1992, I was working on a project for Fidelity investments. it was a telemarketing system that would be used to contact existing customers about their portfolios. they wanted to hire me as a consultant because of my knowledge and mathematics as it applies to portfolios.

there were five of us consultants working on the system. we had to do a different part with the different set of functionality. then, at the end of the project, the five components would be merged together into a full system.

it didn't take me long to realize that this project was a disaster. one day I took a couple of hours and tried each of the five components and there were numerous bugs in every component. (except mine ) and there were numerous inconsistencies among the components so that there was no chance in how but they would ever work together.

and so, hahaha, I put together a memo documenting all this , and gave it to my supervisor, warning him to be careful with it. when the memo reached the group manager, he called me into his office. for some reason, I picture him today as having smoke coming out of his ears, although I know that's impossible. I was fired within a week. The entire project went on, but crashed 3 months later.

so this took place in 1992. The manager was not a silent, but he must have been a young Boomer.

[Higgenbotham]

Friday, December 23rd, 2022.

in 1992, I was working on a project for Fidelity investments. it was a telemarketing system that would be used to contact existing customers about their portfolios. they wanted to hire me as a consultant because of my knowledge and mathematics as it applies to portfolios.

there were five of us consultants working on the system. we had to do a different part with the different set of functionality. then, at the end of the project, the five components would be merged together into a full system.

it didn't take me long to realize that this project was a disaster. one day I took a couple of hours and tried each of the five components and there were numerous bugs in every component. (except mine ) and there were numerous inconsistencies among the components so that there was no chance in how but they would ever work together.

and so, hahaha, I put together a memo documenting all this , and gave it to my supervisor, warning him to be careful with it. when the memo reached the group manager, he called me into his office. for some reason, I picture him today as having smoke coming out of his ears, although I know that's impossible. I was fired within a week. The entire project went on, but crashed 3 months later.

so this took place in 1992. The manager was not a silent, but he must have been a young Boomer.

Your story is very comparable because in my case, each person also had a piece of the job to do. The job of the consultant who got fired was to calculate what was being emitted from the facility. In other words, how many pounds of this and that pollutant was leaving the facility through the air. My job was to say, based on those calculations, what the facility needed to do. My point to them was how the hell can I tell you what you need to do if these boneheads you're hiring can't do the calculations correctly. Not that I wanted their job. I helped them find someone who could do it for them.

When we got there, we were taken into a conference room where their Head of North American Operations and Vice President of Manufacturing were sitting.

Thinking back to what was going on besides the fact that a billionaire owned it who was a Silent (and I heard about but never saw) the Head of North American Operations was the person who was loosely overseeing this project. I think he was responsible for the government sign-offs (he signed the submittals to the government). He made it a point to say hello to me at one point when I was walking around the facility and shook my hand. He is 84 now. During the time I described above, he didn't know anything was wrong. Based on what happened later, I know that for sure. I think if I had been fired, the problem would have been that somebody would have had to explain to him why I was no longer there. Keeping me there allowed them to hide the problems longer.

To make this a little clearer, the head of North American Operations had called my supervisor's supervisor and said his emissions had been characterized, and he now needed someone who could come in and tell them what they needed to do based on those numbers. He was assured that person was me. Like I said before, as I found things that were wrong, they could initially fix them all (the second part of the narrative above). They were still in the first part of "We go beyond compliance" when the consultant was fired. It was 2 years later that I began finding things that couldn't be fixed.

[Higgenbotham]

My sister was heavily into QAnon and mostly I let her talk about it without passing judgment on it like the crap you read in HuffPost and other places. I may get back to that later.

It was 2-3 years ago that I started getting cryptic IMs from my sister about what "Q" was saying.

Without trying to find a summary of QAnon beliefs, I will list them to the best of my ability. Some things on this list may come from other sources besides "Q".

1. There is a group of people called the "White Hats" who are "taking out the trash". The trash consists of people who have been deemed by the "White Hats" to be traitors to America. These traitors have either been killed or are in Guantanamo prison. For example, Joe Biden is in this group and he has been replaced by a lookalike double who has been performing his ceremonial duties while one of the "good guys" runs the country behind the scenes. Good guys are people like JFK and JFK Jr. Their deaths were fake and they have been alive all this time waiting to reemerge once the traitors have been removed.

2. Absent fraud, Trump would have won the election. Since the legislative branch was derelict in their duties, the US military is going to step in and declare a state of emergency while suspending the constitution for a brief time to install Trump as president and clean the country up. This will include things like reinstating a gold standard, zeroing out the debt, and taking out the rest of the trash. It will be announced on the public broadcast system and was supposed to take place by April 2021 but for various reason it has been delayed because it is necessary for those making the change to get it right. Conditions have to be almost perfect for this to be done successfully.

3. There is a pedophilia ring being run by prominent people. Many children have disappeared into this. It consists of tunnels under major cities.

Let's take a look at what the HuffPost has to say about the QAnon movement. I saw this article some months ago.

‘I Miss My Mom’: Children Of QAnon Believers Are Desperately Trying To Deradicalize Their Own Parents

Here’s what it’s like to lose the person who raised you to a far-right cult.

By Jesselyn Cook

Feb 11, 2021, 05:45 AM EST

Shortly before Joe Biden was inaugurated, Sam’s mother began stocking up on food in a panic. He didn’t know why, but he knew it probably had something to do with QAnon.

The 19-year-old started to notice changes in his mother’s behavior around the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. She had always been a nervous woman: She stopped flying after 9/11 and had hovered closely to Sam and his two younger siblings for their entire lives. But during the COVID-19 crisis, his mom’s paranoia spiraled from quirky to deranged. It has turned her into someone he hardly recognizes.

Though she didn’t used to be very political, she now fears the president is a pedophile who stole the election. She’s scared of radiation from the 5G towers in her neighborhood and, as a white woman, she told her son, she’s afraid of being harmed by Black Lives Matter protesters — a movement she once supported. She worries that Sam’s brother and sister are being “indoctrinated” at their public high school and wants to move them to a Catholic one. She’s also refusing to get them immunized against COVID-19 as false rumors swirl that the vaccine contains a secret location-tracking microchip. (She was initially terrified of the virus but now considers the lockdowns an affront to her freedoms.)

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/children ... 586aa49077

This is how the article starts.

Stocking up on food is a bad idea? It's quite prudent.
Biden hasn't been caught on film groping underage girls? Yes he has, definitively.
Biden didn't steal the election? Election fraud has been a problem everywhere and always. Anyone who has heard of the Chicago political machine knows "Vote early and often" has been taken for granted for decades.
An older white woman shouldn't be afraid of being harmed by thugs that are rioting? Give me a break.
The public schools aren't indoctrinating kids? You've got to be fuckin' kidding.
Don't want an untested vax? Makes perfect sense to me.

What's the big deal?

If this is HuffPost's best shot at demonstrating that QAnon is a far-right cult I would be more concerned if my sister were following the cult of Warren Buffett. More on that later.

[Higgenbotham]

My sister was heavily into QAnon and mostly I let her talk about it without passing judgment on it like the crap you read in HuffPost and other places. I may get back to that later.

It was 2-3 years ago that I started getting cryptic IMs from my sister about what "Q" was saying.

Without trying to find a summary of QAnon beliefs, I will list them to the best of my ability. Some things on this list may come from other sources besides "Q".

1. There is a group of people called the "White Hats" who are "taking out the trash". The trash consists of people who have been deemed by the "White Hats" to be traitors to America. These traitors have either been killed or are in Guantanamo prison. For example, Joe Biden is in this group and he has been replaced by a lookalike double who has been performing his ceremonial duties while one of the "good guys" runs the country behind the scenes. Good guys are people like JFK and JFK Jr. Their deaths were fake and they have been alive all this time waiting to reemerge once the traitors have been removed.

2. Absent fraud, Trump would have won the election. Since the legislative branch was derelict in their duties, the US military is going to step in and declare a state of emergency while suspending the constitution for a brief time to install Trump as president and clean the country up. This will include things like reinstating a gold standard, zeroing out the debt, and taking out the rest of the trash. It will be announced on the public broadcast system and was supposed to take place by April 2021 but for various reason it has been delayed because it is necessary for those making the change to get it right. Conditions have to be almost perfect for this to be done successfully.

3. There is a pedophilia ring being run by prominent people. Many children have disappeared into this. It consists of tunnels under major cities.

None of this stuff concerned me either. I didn't "mourn the loss" of my sister or try to "deradicalize" her. I think there were segments of the population who were late in realizing that the country had already irreversibly collapsed before Trump got in, pretty big segments in fact, and they were sure he could "Make America Great Again". They were excited and hopeful about that and when it didn't happen they put together a scenario in their minds whereby it could. It's part of the denial phase of the mourning process. Upon seeing this, my goal was to move my sister as quickly as possible to the acceptance phase and she is doing a good job of getting there.

The five stages as described by Dr. Elisabeth Kubler Ross are:

Denial and Isolation
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance

People in the age bracket described in the HuffPost article are far more susceptible to this kind of thinking. The 30 year old son or daughter of a 60 year old parent cannot possibly imagine how great this country was when their parent was a young person.

[Higgenbotham]

My sister was heavily into QAnon and mostly I let her talk about it without passing judgment on it like the crap you read in HuffPost and other places. I may get back to that later.

It was 2-3 years ago that I started getting cryptic IMs from my sister about what "Q" was saying.

Without trying to find a summary of QAnon beliefs, I will list them to the best of my ability. Some things on this list may come from other sources besides "Q".

1. There is a group of people called the "White Hats" who are "taking out the trash". The trash consists of people who have been deemed by the "White Hats" to be traitors to America. These traitors have either been killed or are in Guantanamo prison. For example, Joe Biden is in this group and he has been replaced by a lookalike double who has been performing his ceremonial duties while one of the "good guys" runs the country behind the scenes. Good guys are people like JFK and JFK Jr. Their deaths were fake and they have been alive all this time waiting to reemerge once the traitors have been removed.

2. Absent fraud, Trump would have won the election. Since the legislative branch was derelict in their duties, the US military is going to step in and declare a state of emergency while suspending the constitution for a brief time to install Trump as president and clean the country up. This will include things like reinstating a gold standard, zeroing out the debt, and taking out the rest of the trash. It will be announced on the public broadcast system and was supposed to take place by April 2021 but for various reason it has been delayed because it is necessary for those making the change to get it right. Conditions have to be almost perfect for this to be done successfully.

3. There is a pedophilia ring being run by prominent people. Many children have disappeared into this. It consists of tunnels under major cities.

15 percent of Americans believe central QAnon theory: poll

BY MARINA PITOFSKY - 05/27/21 10:16 AM ET


Fifteen percent of Americans agree with the central false tenet of the QAnon conspiracy theory: that the government and other entities are controlled by Satan-worshipping pedophiles running a child sex trafficking ring, according to a new poll.

Among Republicans the survey, released Wednesday by the Public Religion Research Institute, found that 23 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that “the government, media and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.”

That number declines to 14 percent among independents and 8 percent among Democrats.

The survey also found that 20 percent of Americans believe another central part of the conspiracy theory, that “there is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders.”

Twenty-eight percent of Republicans surveyed agreed with the statement, compared to 18 percent of independents and 14 percent of Democrats.

The poll also found that 15 percent of survey respondents said that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.”

Twenty-eight percent of Republicans polled said that they agreed with the statement, along with 13 percent of independents and 7 percent of Democrats.

Approximately 4 in 10 Americans who say that they trust far-right news outlets like OANN and Newsmax said that they believe the false theory that the government and other institutions are controlled by “Satan-worshipping pedophiles.”

White evangelical Protestants, Hispanic Protestants and Mormons are the most likely among religious groups polled to agree with any of the central beliefs of the QAnon conspiracy theory.

The survey was conducted online between March 8 and March 30 among 5,149 adults in the U.S. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... eory-poll/

Belief in QAnon has strengthened in US since Trump was voted out, study finds
Surveys by the Public Religion Research Institute reveal QAnon believers increased to 17% in September from 14% in March

David Smith in Washington - Thu 24 Feb 2022 00.01 EST


The QAnon conspiracy myth movement continues to thrive in the US and has even strengthened more than a year after Donald Trump left the White House, according to the largest ever study of its followers.

Some 22% of Americans believe that a “storm” is coming, 18% think violence might be necessary to save the country and 16% hold that the government, media and financial worlds are controlled by Satan-worshipping pedophiles, according to four surveys carried out last year by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) think tank.

Each of these baseless and bizarre views is a core tenet of QAnon, an antisemitic internet conspiracy theory which held that Trump was waging a secret battle against a cabal of pedophiles and its “deep state” collaborators – a “storm” that would sweep them out of power.

Yet despite his election defeat by Joe Biden, major social media platforms banning QAnon activity and the disappearance of its leader, “Q”, the movement has not gone away. If anything, it has strengthened.

“The share of QAnon believers has increased slightly through 2021,” the report by the PRRI states. “In March, 14% of Americans were QAnon believers, compared to 16% in July, 17% in September, and 17% in October.

“The share of QAnon doubters has remained relatively steady (46% in March, 49% in July, 48% in September, and 49% in October), while the share of QAnon rejecters has decreased slightly from 40% in March to 35% in July, 35% in September, and 34% in October.”

These findings are based on 19,399 respondents from four surveys designed and conducted by the PRRI during 2021, using random samples of adults in all 50 states.

Natalie Jackson, research lead, said: “People who are susceptible to believing in these conspiracy theories are found in every demographic. It’s not just restricted to Republicans or the uneducated or those who are in a specific age group. It’s distributed throughout.

“Of course, there are some groups that are more prevalent than others, like there are many more Republicans than Democrats, but we do find that people in every demographic find these wild conspiracies believable.”

Among the discernible patterns, about one in five QAnon believers identify as white evangelical Protestants, and QAnon believers are significantly less likely than all Americans to have college degrees.

Media consumption is the strongest independent predictor of being a QAnon believer. Americans who most trust rightwing news outlets such as the One America News Network and Newsmax are nearly five times more likely than those who most trust mainstream news to be QAnon believers. Those who most trust Fox News are about twice as likely as those who trust mainstream news to be QAnon believers.

They generally have positive views of the Republican party and negative views of Democrats, with 68% agreeing in the October survey that “the Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists”.

Some 26% of QAnon believers have a favorable view of Biden while 69% have unfavorable views of him. About 63% have a favorable opinion of Trump but 31% have an unfavorable view of the former president who once claimed that QAnon followers “love our country” and “like me very much”.

Seven in 10 QAnon believers agree with the false statement that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, including just under half who completely agree. These individuals are also most likely to blame leftwing groups such as antifa for the US Capitol insurrection on 6 January 2021 (there is no organized antifa organization).

Jackson said: “These are people who believe that their culture is under attack, their way of life is under attack, so a lot of them do align with the Trump philosophies. According to those theories, Trump was supposed to be their leader.

“One of the things that’s somewhat impressive is even with Trump out of power, and the fact that January 6 was not ‘the storm’ that they thought it might be, these beliefs have persisted.”

Around eight in 10 QAnon believers agree with the statement that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity. More than seven in 10 say the values of Islam are at odds with American values and way of life, or that the American way of life needs to be protected from foreign influence.

And 32% of QAnon believers agree with the statement that “the idea of America where most people are not white bothers me”.

In late 2021, about one in 10 Americans (9%) agreed it might be necessary to commit an act of violence to save the country. QAnon believers (17%) and QAnon doubters (11%) were more likely than QAnon rejecters (4%) to share this view.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... tudy-finds