Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[Higgenbotham]

The Industrial and Information Ages don't leave a lot of room for such collapses.

They leave a lot more room. In the Industrial Age, the excess extraction rate over the steady state sustainable extraction rate is at least 10 fold what it was in the Agricultural Age.

[Higgenbotham]

Tom Murphy is a professor emeritus of the departments of Physics and Astronomy & Astrophysics at the University of California, San Diego. An amateur astronomer in high school, physics major at Georgia Tech, and PhD student in physics at Caltech, Murphy spent decades reveling in the study of astrophysics. For most of his 20 year career as a professor, he led a project to test General Relativity by bouncing laser pulses off of the reflectors left on the Moon by the Apollo astronauts, achieving one-millimeter range precision. Murphy’s keen interest in energy topics began with his teaching a course on energy and the environment for non-science majors at UCSD. Motivated by the unprecedented challenges we face, he applied his instrumentation skills to exploring alternative energy and associated measurement schemes. Following his natural instincts to educate, Murphy is eager to get people thinking about the quantitatively convincing case that our pursuit of an ever-bigger scale of life faces gigantic challenges and carries significant risks.

Both Murphy and the Do the Math blog changed a lot after about 2018. Reflections on this change can be found in Confessions of a Disillusioned Scientist.

Note from Tom: To learn more about my personal perspective and whether you should dismiss some of my views as alarmist, read my Chicken Little page.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/tom-murphy-profile/

In this blog, he gives the opinion that it is possible that the human race will wind up in hunter gatherer bands at the bottom of the new dark age.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/post-index/

[Added after posting] An early comment helpfully pointed out that I failed to define collapse. For the purposes of this post, we can think of collapse as a drastic and probably chaotic reduction in energy and resource use per person, the result looking primitive by today’s standards. Population may plummet through famine or other disruption. What remains might not maintain much of our present technology, and in the worst cases lose much of our accumulated science/knowledge. I am not talking about extinction of our species or necessarily reversion to hunter-gatherer lifestyles (though that’s certainly on the table). Most would see this trajectory as a colossal failure of the enterprise.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2021/05/why- ... -collapse/

[Bob Butler]

Let’s consider the so called collapse with the results of global warming. Most of the population lives on the seacoasts which are rising. Regions will become too hot. The cooler areas such as Canada or Siberia may have soil optimized for trees rather than crops. Land will have to be fertilized. Oil use will be much less between preservation or to avoid a rare resource and depletion. Regions that were rich on oil and bought food would have to depopulate.

I am not thinking in terms of a single universal global collapse, but massive relocation and a shift in technologies from fossil to renewables. Like Spain, France, Germany and Russia may not be the superpowers they once were, but they have hardly collapsed either in population or technology available. Global warming has the potential to create scattered, varied mass migrations as land disappears or becomes less available.

As I’ve said elsewhere, I anticipate the next crisis will be between establishment elites trying to short term maximize profits while using excessive influence on governments against those concerned about global warming, resource expenditure and sustainability. This may not take the shape of a collapse, though it could if the short term exploitation of the elites dominates over common sense. Not collapse, but a forced change which could easily be just as bad.

[Guest]

Tom Murphy is a professor emeritus of the departments of Physics and Astronomy & Astrophysics at the University of California, San Diego. An amateur astronomer in high school, physics major at Georgia Tech, and PhD student in physics at Caltech, Murphy spent decades reveling in the study of astrophysics. For most of his 20 year career as a professor, he led a project to test General Relativity by bouncing laser pulses off of the reflectors left on the Moon by the Apollo astronauts, achieving one-millimeter range precision. Murphy’s keen interest in energy topics began with his teaching a course on energy and the environment for non-science majors at UCSD. Motivated by the unprecedented challenges we face, he applied his instrumentation skills to exploring alternative energy and associated measurement schemes. Following his natural instincts to educate, Murphy is eager to get people thinking about the quantitatively convincing case that our pursuit of an ever-bigger scale of life faces gigantic challenges and carries significant risks.

Both Murphy and the Do the Math blog changed a lot after about 2018. Reflections on this change can be found in Confessions of a Disillusioned Scientist.

Note from Tom: To learn more about my personal perspective and whether you should dismiss some of my views as alarmist, read my Chicken Little page.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/tom-murphy-profile/

In this blog, he gives the opinion that it is possible that the human race will wind up in hunter gatherer bands at the bottom of the new dark age.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/post-index/

[Added after posting] An early comment helpfully pointed out that I failed to define collapse. For the purposes of this post, we can think of collapse as a drastic and probably chaotic reduction in energy and resource use per person, the result looking primitive by today’s standards. Population may plummet through famine or other disruption. What remains might not maintain much of our present technology, and in the worst cases lose much of our accumulated science/knowledge. I am not talking about extinction of our species or necessarily reversion to hunter-gatherer lifestyles (though that’s certainly on the table). Most would see this trajectory as a colossal failure of the enterprise.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2021/05/why- ... -collapse/

Johannesburg today, Paris, London, New York, and Berlin tomorrow.

[Guest]

Germany (where I was born) is practically bankrupt and wracked by incredibly levels violent migrant crime. Germany's future is bleak. Spain and France are not much better off. France routinely loses control of its streets to African and Arab criminals. I don't see any prosperity in Europe anywhere.

I just looked up the 2024 crime index.The numbers include… https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings_by_country.jsp

Venezuela, #1, 81.2
France, #37, 55.3
USA, #58, 49.3
Germany, #97, 38.9
Spain, #104, 32.6
Andorra (last), #146, 12.9

This does not reflect what you claimed. Putting Spain and France in the same category and claiming Spain has problems are absurd. You have a cockeyed mindset and are willing to make up imaginary stuff to support it. Granted, France has a bit of a problem, but Germany and Spain are better than us and better than average.

Look over the whole list and see if you can come up with another generalization.

Those figures are worthless. Most countries do not bother to investigate and prosecute crime. The violence is very public and obvious in Europa everywhere now.

I bet you believe America's economy is booming.

[Guest]

German government data:

Percentage of all crimes committed by the foreign-born population in Frankfurt:

Serious sexuaI assault: 100%
Pickpocket incidents: 93%
Human trafficking: 83.3%
Day home burglary: 80%
Aggravated theft: 75.6%
Illegal smuggling: 70.3%
Theft (in general) 65.7%
Crime against life: 60%
ChiId abuse: 52.8%
Arsonists: 51.9%
AssauIt: 51.5%

These statistics do not reflect the crimes committed by Africans, Serbians, Russians, Arabs, etc. that were born in Germany and are thus treated as native Germans. The true numbers of migrant crimes are near 100% The reality of daily life in Germany is nightmarish.

Germans with money are now moving to Asia and select countries in South America; however, having lived in Latin America for a time, I will not be returning. I know better.

[Guest from Tx]

but Germany and Spain are better than us and better than average.bit of a problem,

South Africa will be better off than us in three years.

[due diligence]

Germany (where I was born) is practically bankrupt and wracked by incredibly levels violent migrant crime. Germany's future is bleak. Spain and France are not much better off. France routinely loses control of its streets to African and Arab criminals. I don't see any prosperity in Europe anywhere.

I just looked up the 2024 crime index.The numbers include… https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings_by_country.jsp

Venezuela, #1, 81.2
France, #37, 55.3
USA, #58, 49.3
Germany, #97, 38.9
Spain, #104, 32.6
Andorra (last), #146, 12.9

This does not reflect what you claimed. Putting Spain and France in the same category and claiming Spain has problems are absurd. You have a cockeyed mindset and are willing to make up imaginary stuff to support it. Granted, France has a bit of a problem, but Germany and Spain are better than us and better than average.

Look over the whole list and see if you can come up with another generalization.

That data can't be trusted. Numbeo freely admits that they manipulate their data, and also freely admits that they won't tell you how they do it.
"Our methods are proprietary."

[guest]

"GIGO" - Butler's M.O.

[FullMoon]

'BB will ride the atom bomb all the way to the ground.' That's still my favorite line of the past year. It's the superiority complex of that group, their tightly closed bubble and strictly regulated information sources together with unrelenting bigotry... It's just FUBAR as many people wake up to it at the last moments before we crash land. Maybe changing course was never in the cards but those who insist on driving hard into the pier rather than admit we're off course earn the ridicule and scorn borne upon them. A pox upon the Libs for this unforgivable sin.