Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

The Soviet Origins of Xi’s Xinjiang Policy
Behind the CCP’s horrific crackdown in Xinjiang is a desperate drive to avoid the mistakes that led to the USSR’s collapse.
One finding struck me: Chinese narratives about the Soviet collapse have been marshalled to justify the escalating horrors of ethnic assimilation in Xinjiang. Xi’s reading of Soviet history will not dissuade him from cultural genocide in Xinjiang. It will only steel his belief in the urgency of the endeavor.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/the-sov ... ng-policy/

Pretty much agress with what John has been saying.

Navigator
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Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

There has been minor inflation for quite a while now, but it is not what will be a factor when things change for the worse. The inflation has been on the order of 2-5% per year.

But I think what John is talking about is what will happen when the economic crisis hits. It will not be an Inflationary Crisis (the Weimar case). Instead, it will be Deflationary, because everyone will stop buying anything the don't absolutely need.

Here is a more detailed explanation from David Stockman:

Where Deflation Comes From
Financial bubbles blown on the back of massive amounts of debt, of necessity lead to debt deflation (it’s just entropy, really). Fighting this is futile, and grossly costly to boot. The only sensible thing to do is to guide the process as best you can and try to minimize the damage, especially at the bottom rungs of society, because that’s where the deflation first takes hold, and where it spreads out from.

Attempting to boost inflation, or boost demand, before letting the debt deflation run its course through restructuring and defaults (perhaps even a -partial- jubilee) leads only to -further- distortion, and -further- impoverishes society’s poorer (at some point to a large extent the former middle classes). Whose lower spending, as nary a soul seems to comprehend, is the origin of the deflation to begin with.

All the attempts by central bankers to boost inflation that we’ve seen so far squarely ignore this, and operate on the false assumption that if only prices for financial assets and real estate can be raised even higher -artificially-, deflation can be warded off.

Thing is, deflation starts not at the top, it starts at the bottom. It’s not the banks or the bankers or the well-off who are maxed out and stop spending, but the people in the street.

They are responsible for most of the spending in an economy, and therefore for the velocity with which money moves in a society. And if the velocity of money falls below a critical point, no increase in the other side of the inflation/deflation equation -the money/credit supply- can make up for the difference. There is a point where all of the King’s horses and all of the King’s central bankers can’t put Humpty Dumpty together again.

The people in the street are not just maxed out in the sense that they have no money, they have less than no money, since they’re deep in debt. An increasing part of whatever they do still have, and what they make in their ever lower paying jobs, goes toward debt payments. Yeah, that’s the giant sucking sound.

QE and other ‘plans’ like it don’t address this even in the slightest, and are necessarily failures before they even start.

Central bank stimulus measures are all exclusively targeted at the upper rungs, and therefore miss their aim entirely. Or perhaps we should say ‘alleged’ aim, since it takes quite a leap of faith to presume that all the world’s central bankers fail to understand their own field so thoroughly that all they can all come up with is failures.

However, given that they all studied the same faulty economics textbooks, we can’t rule out this possibility. It is certainly strongly suggested -once again- by Steve Keen in Our Dysfunctional Monetary System.

Rather than effective remedies, we’ve had inane policies like QE, which purport to solve the crisis by inflating asset prices when inflated asset prices were one of the symptoms of the bubble that caused the crisis. We’ve seen Central Banks pump up private bank reserves in the belief that this will encourage more bank lending when (a) there’s too much bank debt already and (b) banks physically can’t lend out reserves.

What may also play a role is that the upper rungs tend to be blind to anything outside of their own circles, that because they 1) have their hands on a nation’s wallets and 2) they see themselves as the most important segment of any given society, they elect to try and solve the problem inside their own circles -and truly believe this is feasible-.

This can of course not possibly work. Because they’re hugely outnumbered. They don’t have nearly enough influence on money flows in their societies. If they can’t sell the bottom, let’s take a number, 80%, of society sufficient produce or gasoline or homes or trinkets, the entire society seizes up the way an engine does that runs out of oil.

The top makes its fortune for a while getting the bottom ever deeper into debt, only to inevitably find that this kills off the entire economy. Then they do some more of the same, and find ever more of their own kind becoming part of the bottom.

The problem for the rich is simple: there’s not enough of them. Well, that and they don’t understand how societies function. Let alone economies. Scraps off the table won’t do the trick. Next stop pitchforks.

Any deflationary period would have been hard no matter what. Still, none would have had to lead to what we’re facing now.

But look out there at what’s happening in politics, at who’s popular in various places. It’s all geared towards more inequality, not less, like some tooth and claw Darwin version were the world’s economics teacher, wherever you look it’s all the well-off making ever surer they will remain well-off or better.

And even if you look for instance at Bernie Sanders in the US, he wants more for the bottom of society, but that seems more for sentimental or ideological reasons than a sign he actually understands why it would raise the odds of the States being a going concern going forward.

The actual Darwin could have taught us all a lesson or two three about the role of balances in ecosystems, and in human societies. But then he actually studied them. Economists, politicians and central bankers have not.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 12-Jun-2021 World View: 2020 Election Forensic Audits

The Democrats are moving as quickly as possible to do as much damage
to the country as they can -- flood the country with illegal
immigrants from 170 countries, flood the country with Chinese fentynal
and meth, let violent criminals out of jail, defund the police,
destroy black families, encourage the murder of thousands of young
black men by other black men in Democrat-run cities, destroy America's
energy independence, teach racial hatred in school (critical race
theory), censor political opposition, etc. [Paragraph updated]

One reason that they're moving quickly is that they know that polls
indicate that Americans are turning against them, and they're likely
to lose control of Congress in the 2022 elections.

Another reason is that they're enormously frightened of the 75 million
people who voted for Donald Trump. They bitterly advise the Republicans
to dump Trump and move on, but that's not happening. And Trump will
be holding election rallies this summer for candidates he supports.

Another reason is that 2020 election forensic audits are gaining steam
in many states. The latest Rasmussen poll indicates that a majority
of American voters now believe that Democrat cheating affected the
outcome of the 2020 elections:
> "Our polling indicates 51%, a majority of U.S. likely
> voters, believe cheating impacted the 2020 election results, up
> from 47% just after the November election. Legacy media spends
> 24/7 demonizing any questioning of the 2020 results. Public trust
> in them is demonstrated below – pic.twitter.com/FxWv8ZVQ6v

> — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) June 7, 2021

> Image
  • Rasmussen poll results
The above poll indicates that 30% of Democrats believe that the election
was stolen, and 75% of Republicans do, and that's been steady since
November 19. What's changed is that independent (unaffiliated) voters
increasingly believe that the Democrats rigged the election.

The result is there are forensic election fraud audits being conducted
in a number of states, and we can expect a number of bombshells over
the summer. This probably panics the Democrats more than anything
because they know that they rigged the election and that the
mainstream media may not be able to protect them for long.

The Democrats and the mainstream media have been doing their best to
describe any claims of election fraud as masturbation fantasies of an
unhinged Donald Trump, but the forensic audits are proceeding anyway.

In fact, the Democrats have been showing how frightened they are by
hiring armies of lawyers to do everything possible to stop the audits.
The audit farthest along is the one in Maricopa Country Arizona, and
this army of lawyers, backed by corrupt government officials, were
able to stop the audit for a couple of days at one point, but the
court ended up approving the audit, and so it continued. However, the
corrupt Arizona government officials are refusing to respond to
subpoenas. Of particular concern are the Dominion voting machines,
which the corrupt government is refusing to turn over to the forensic
auditors, despite subpoenas.

Here is a summary of the 2020 elections that all but proves
election fraud:

Image
  • Election Summary (TierneyRealNews via Redstate)


The following article was posted on Friday:

-- A.U.D.I.T. of Elections: Hot and Getting Hotter!
https://redstate.com/stu-in-sd/2021/06/ ... er-n394861
(RedState, 11-Jun-2021)

It describes in great detail the progress of forensic election audits
in Arizona, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New
Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along
with a number of additional comments about foreign interference in the
elections.

It's these audits that pose the greatest threat to the Democrat Party,
and explains why they're so panicked to get their destructive agenda
implemented as quickly as possible.

The Democrats through the KKK were still lynching young black boys and
raping young black girls when Joe Biden was young, and he may have
participated in or approved of some of these activities, along with
his mentor, Robert Byrd. Biden is on the record making extremely
hate-filled racist remarks as late as 2007, just before Obama
nominated him as vice-president. And now, in the last week, Hunter
Biden's tweets show the depth of hatred that the entire Biden family
has for blacks. I believe that this hatred of blacks and bitterness
at Republicans for freeing the slaves is a primary motivation for the
destructive agenda of the Democrats.

Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Great, informative post.

2022 will be an inflection point in the "last stand" category of American history.

Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Political correctness and "Cancel culture" have been an issue for quite some time. I've found plenty of articles written in the 1990s decrying it, saying this was anathema to free speech, and many of the same things we say today. This is often used as: "See, there's nothing to worry about, you right-wing lunatics."

The difference is, at the time, this was mostly confined to certain college campuses. Now it's everywhere: business, government, the media, hollywood. It says something that a senior New York Times editor was fired for daring to post an opinion piece by a Republican senator. Criticizing Black Lives Matter will get you fired in many businesses. James Damore lost his job at google for suggesting the gender gap had other reasons than sexism, and his co-workers were warned: "Support him and the same will happen to you."

I consider it dangerous when you can't trust an election outcome and many people don't. I'm a little suspicious, but far from absolutely convinced. However, it's a bit rich for the people who spent four years saying that Trump stole the election now turn around and say questioning the election is treason.

thinker
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 1:26 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

John something I think you and others are missing is that the democrats know that these audits can not only flip the presidency but also can have large effects on the house and senate. More people are waking up to the reality that not only was there massive fraud in this election but that it was enough to change the outcome. Another problem that the democrats did not count on is that the states have started to take back their power and have begun to pass laws closing all the avenues that they used to steal this election as well as passing laws to strengthen the 1st and 2nd amendments ( for the 1st look at laws curving the power of big tech). I don't think it is just the democrats that are afraid I think it's the elites in general. For example I have noticed that the supreme court has been giving the right some very important wins lately including a decision on a gun rights case where the court's decision was for upholding gun rights by a vote of 9 to 0. I think that is the justices trying to signal to the populace that they screwed up and that they are trying to make up for it. I know some will say that the justices don't care about anything but the rule of law and the constitution but they are human beings and not robots so things like the mood of the populace will play a part in their decisions and all the elites know that the populace is really pissed right know.

thinker
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 1:26 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thinker »

A couple of other things, critical race theory is also being attacked and removed. There are now people that were not politically involved before that have now become very politically involved. I see it in my regular life and it can be seen online as well, for example the videos of parents going to school board meetings and taking them over and starting to get rid of things that the school boards have been implementing for years.
I immigrated to the U.S. from Cuba. When Castro and the communists took over they got rid of guns. This is a problem the communists in this country have had from the start and I think it is a problem that they still haven't been able to figure out. Every time they try to move on firearms the population just goes out and buys more guns and ammo thereby making their problem even more difficult to solve. These truly are some interesting times we are living in.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:49 pm
Great, informative post.

2022 will be an inflection point in the "last stand" category of American history.
Yes, our last stand.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Sat Jun 12, 2021 1:33 pm
Thing is, deflation starts not at the top, it starts at the bottom. It’s not the banks or the bankers or the well-off who are maxed out and stop spending, but the people in the street.

They are responsible for most of the spending in an economy, and therefore for the velocity with which money moves in a society. And if the velocity of money falls below a critical point, no increase in the other side of the inflation/deflation equation -the money/credit supply- can make up for the difference. There is a point where all of the King’s horses and all of the King’s central bankers can’t put Humpty Dumpty together again.

The people in the street are not just maxed out in the sense that they have no money, they have less than no money, since they’re deep in debt. An increasing part of whatever they do still have, and what they make in their ever lower paying jobs, goes toward debt payments. Yeah, that’s the giant sucking sound.
So you think there will be deflation?

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