Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

Ominous indeed. Almost telling us beforehand of what's to come.
How often in history has a leader spoken of what was imminent? It's almost begging to happen as it gets pushed along as if it's destiny has a gravitational force increasing in intensity.

[JDav]

John, perhaps you didn't see my earlier question. How does our involvement in the Ukraine-Russia war affect your prediction of a Russia/India/US alliance against China, et al? Russia has been known to change sides when convenient, but would they now, after suffering the ignominies we've heaped on them? And, after all this administration has said and done, how could we accept Russia as an ally? Just saying, "Oceania is now at war with Eastasia, therefore it's always been at war with Eastasia," probably won't cut it. We're not quite there, yet.

Also, what impact do you think that news of our forcing regime change in Pakistan will have? I wonder if it will be too late before our illustrious leaders will realize that China is the real problem. To paraphrase Don Corleone - "Putin is a pimp. It was Xi all along."

[Guest Cathay]

China's youth unemployment is higher than 20%. Official CCCP media reports 20% of university graduates cannot find employment. The true percentage is 80%. And none of these graduates want to join the army. The PLA is for country people who are to stupid to go to a university.

Xi has no faith in the PLA. The Chinese PLA ran away in the Sudan when African rebels attacked and abandoned Chinese civilians. The PLA has failed numerous times on operations. Against India, even when better armed, the Chinese PLA lost, eventhough media says otherwise. Xi doubts the PLA can defeat Taiwan. He will have to use atomic bombs.

[FullMoon]

China's youth unemployment is higher than 20%. Official CCCP media reports 20% of university graduates cannot find employment. The true percentage is 80%. And none of these graduates want to join the army. The PLA is for country people who are to stupid to go to a university.

Xi has no faith in the PLA. The Chinese PLA ran away in the Sudan when African rebels attacked and abandoned Chinese civilians. The PLA has failed numerous times on operations. Against India, even when better armed, the Chinese PLA lost, eventhough media says otherwise. Xi doubts the PLA can defeat Taiwan. He will have to use atomic bombs.

Unemployment is way higher than 20% for sure.
Xi does doubt the military. The plan to take a few small islands is a test for them.
The pressure is boiling over and it's one bad thing after another for Xi. With upwards of 100 million unmarried men under 40 yrs old hardened by tough years, he's got plenty of cannon fodder and it's better that they fight for their country rather than against it.

[Guest]

China's youth unemployment is higher than 20%. Official CCCP media reports 20% of university graduates cannot find employment. The true percentage is 80%. And none of these graduates want to join the army. The PLA is for country people who are to stupid to go to a university.

Xi has no faith in the PLA. The Chinese PLA ran away in the Sudan when African rebels attacked and abandoned Chinese civilians. The PLA has failed numerous times on operations. Against India, even when better armed, the Chinese PLA lost, eventhough media says otherwise. Xi doubts the PLA can defeat Taiwan. He will have to use atomic bombs.

Unemployment is way higher than 20% for sure.
Xi does doubt the military. The plan to take a few small islands is a test for them.
The pressure is boiling over and it's one bad thing after another for Xi. With upwards of 100 million unmarried men under 40 yrs old hardened by tough years, he's got plenty of cannon fodder and it's better that they fight for their country rather than against it.

There is no guarantee that will fight for Xi.

[John]

** 12-Aug-2023 World View: Russia and China

John, perhaps you didn't see my
earlier question. How does our
involvement in the Ukraine-Russia
war affect your prediction of a
Russia/India/US alliance against
China, et al? Russia has been known
to change sides when convenient, but
would they now, after suffering the
ignominies we've heaped on them?
And, after all this administration
has said and done, how could we
accept Russia as an ally? Just
saying, "Oceania is now at war with
Eastasia, therefore it's always been
at war with Eastasia," probably
won't cut it. We're not quite
there, yet.

To understand this, you have to
understand that generational crisis wars
are existential threats and so depend on
the attitudes of entire populations and
generations, rather than the attitudes
of the politicians.

I've described the situation in the
past. The Russian people hate the
Chinese people but love the European
people, even though Russia has been
invaded by both, the worst invasion
being the hated "Mongol Yoke" that
followed the 1209 Mongol invasion of
China, followed by an attack and
conquest of almost all the Russian
principalities, making them bitter
vassals of the Mongol Empire for two
centuries.

The major European invasions of Russia
were all non-crisis
(Awakening/Unraveling era) wars for
Russia, fought in conjunction with a
crisis war for Europe. These were the
Great Northern War with Sweden during
the European War of the Spanish
Succession (1701-14), Napoleon's
invasion (1812) following the French
Revolution, and Hitler's invasion during
World War II.

Russia's crisis wars for the last few
centuries were internal rebellions --
the Razin's peasant rebellion in the
1600s, Pugachev's Rebellion in the
1770s, the Crimean War in the 1850s, and
the Bolshevik Revolution in the 1910s.

Furthermore, as I've described in the
past, China has 20 border disputes with
its neighbors. This includes claiming
34,000 sq km of Kazakhstan's territory,
and also claiming much of Russia's Far
East, including Vladivostok, the home of
Russia's Pacific Fleet.

As I've described many times, Russia and
China are historic enemies, at war most
recently in the 1960s. They currently
have a kind of "marriage of convenience"
in opposition to the United States and
West, who oppose their respective
threatened invasions of Ukraine and
Taiwan. But it won't be long before the
historic differences turn to new
disagreements and war.

Another historical event to remember is
that Nazi Germany and Russia were allies
before WW II, but America and Russia
were allies during WW II.

** 5-Jul-20 World View -- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200705

[FullMoon]

China and Russia can't even properly coordinate within their own countries. And they're historic enemies competing for the same land area.
It's strange that the devastating flooding killing tens of thousands, probably hundreds of thousands and wiping cities surrounding Beijing off the map is not headline news. What's more, the Beijing leadership has abandoned the city for meetings elsewhere. Speculation is that the Taiwan invasion takes precedence.

[Tom Mazanec]

If so, FullMoon, it seems like next season (autumn) would be the time, especially as the POTUS campaign should be heating up then.

[Cool Breeze]

What are the predictions for what happens? I haven't seen much in terms of meaningful posts lately.

[FullMoon]

If so, FullMoon, it seems like next season (autumn) would be the time, especially as the POTUS campaign should be heating up then.

They need to give their forces a small but meaningful test. The islands hopping campaign talked about by Navigator would do that. And the zero COVID fiasco followed by a terrible reopening with economy tanking alarmingly fast, now followed by EPIC floods with many available videos to see vast areas destroyed in order to divert the water from Beijing all the while they hold their annual ocean side retreat without helping the flooded area a bit. They're even trying to cover up the fiasco but the videos and pictures are out. They've lost the mandate to govern and it's this situation that we've discussed as the prerequisite for starting a foreign entanglement. Something that can be achieved at their present level is just a few small islands far from anything. But they belong to Taiwan. Taking a few casualties should help build a narrative. Getting the Japanese involved would save their regime because then it would be personal to the average Chinese who continue to pass on an ancient grudge and desire to retribution.