Generational Dynamics World View News

[FullMoon]

I have also seen the opinion that this agreement is just a front so the Chinese can push weapons and ammunition to Russia without looking like they are the ones giving support

I saw this credibly argued earlier this year. But really, we already know that they're collaborating and using each other for something which benefits their team to the detriment to our team. China is rapidly pivoting to this team whilst pretending that they're neutral. They're benefiting greatly by these menacing bad actors both Russia/N. Korea/Iran as well as their domestic terrorist insurgent Leftist/Communist bad actor of which BB is clearly aligned. Whether he knows it or not.

[Guest]

Russia and N Korea Sign Defense Treaty

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/06/19 ... a-n2175667

I am seeing this being interpreted as a sign of weakness on the part of Russia, showing their desperation for ammunition and possibly bodies for a war that has lasted much longer than planned for. I have also seen the opinion that this agreement is just a front so the Chinese can push weapons and ammunition to Russia without looking like they are the ones giving support.

Anyone here have any thoughts?

China wants to be a respected global super power, not the leader of a ring of pariah states like Russia, Iran, and NK. This must be embarrassing for China. Putin is publically humiliating himself.

Russia is obviously losing the war.

[spottybrowncow]

Russia and N Korea Sign Defense Treaty

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/06/19 ... a-n2175667

I am seeing this being interpreted as a sign of weakness on the part of Russia, showing their desperation for ammunition and possibly bodies for a war that has lasted much longer than planned for. I have also seen the opinion that this agreement is just a front so the Chinese can push weapons and ammunition to Russia without looking like they are the ones giving support.

Anyone here have any thoughts?

Take this with a grain of salt coming from what some on this board would call an ignorant biased MAGA, but the most obvious thing this means to me is that if NK does something crazy and attacks a SK or US vessel, and SK or US respond with force, then Russia is de facto immediately involved.

Next question: Why would Russia want that?

[Guest]

Besides nuclear weapons, what could Russia do in a war in Korea? The entire Russian army is tied down in Ukraine.

I think Russia is just shadow boxing at this point.

[Guest]

I saw a gut on YouTube today saying deflation had already started...

Anyone in the peanut gallery care to comment on this?

[Trevor]

Since people have asked me to post more often, I'll see what I can do.

What I'm hearing from almost every analyst when talking about a conflict with China is "Cold War II." I'm not all that surprised and this goes with what John has said in the past: history begins when you're born. People in charge today remember the Cold War and resulting tensions, but not the terrible events of the 1930s and 1940s. The idea China would really want to start a war seems foreign to most.

In a way, they're running out of time. China's birth rate is now lower than Japan's and their economic growth is slowing, assuming it hasn't stopped. This is according to the CCP's official numbers, which I wouldn't take at face value. They stopped recording youth unemployment, but before they did, it was as high as 50% in some rural regions. Combine that with having tens of millions of young men with no marriage or economic prospects, you've got a recipe for disaster. They spend more on internal security than their exterior military, and while much has been made of our military recruiting crisis, they've got one of their own. It's not so much as America and the West are doing well as it is others are even worse off.

I enjoy Navigator's posts, but one area where I disagree with him is Russia suddenly becoming a competent, powerful military. It's been over two years and their advances can be measured in meters on occasion. Our media swings from one extreme to the other: either Russia's on the verge of collapse, or Ukraine is doomed. Their Kharkiv Offensive has lasted over a month and managed to take around 100 square miles, despite Ukraine at that time not being allowed to strike into Russian territory with NATO weapons. Their loss rate is around 100 tanks a month (that can be independently verified) and even with Russia moving to a wartime footing, that isn't sustainable. Much of their tank production is restoring Soviet-era vehicles, and they've had to resort to T-62s and even T-55s.

About the only thing they have managed to do is give their soldiers at least some proper equipment; there isn't nearly the level of complaint about equipment there was early on. North Korea's given Russia around 4 million shells, equivalent to what we've given Ukraine in the past 2 years. That Russia's treating NK as an equal, rather than a junior partner, says a lot about their position. I don't doubt China's giving help, at least indirectly, supplying North Korea with shells of their own to the equivalent of whatever they give to Russia. A far cry from the power of the Soviet Union.

We've ramped up our production to an extent, but we're still in peacetime mode. There seems to be this idea that we're going to have all these problems scaling up, but for Russia and China, it's just smooth sailing. Our main obstacle is politics, not a lack of capability.
XXXXXXXXXX
Much as certain people loathe hearing this, I do think Trump is going to be our next President. No matter how much the Biden team claims these are all "deepfakes", his decline is impossible to hide at this point. Even with far less interaction with the press... in 2020, he had enough lucid moments to muddle through, but now even Democrats are aware of their situation.

I can't help but think of Woodrow Wilson in 1916. He campaigned on keeping the United States out of war, but a month after his second term began (inauguration taking place in March at the time) he declared war on Germany. I don't think things can be delayed much longer, scary as I find it.

[Guest]

So Braverman says 'We are at WAR' with China, Iran, North Korea and Russia.

Did China allow millions of unvetted fighting age males to come into the country?

Did Iran print hundreds of billions of pounds resulting in massive inflation in the UK?

Did North Korea make children wear face masks in British Schools?

Did Russia allow children to take puberty blockers at the Tavistock clinic?

Our REAL ENEMIES are the traitorous political class and we should NEVER fight their psychopathic wars!

[NoMansLand]

It seems like the general consensus, on this board at least, is that Russia is not operating from a position of strength. So far as Russia entering any conflict that NK starts, I do agree with our guest that their involvement would be have to be limited by their Ukraine commitment. As far as nukes go however, I believe NK may have a serious desire for a knowledge transfer.

I believe China enjoys having NK as a vassal state and has almost certainly not shared their best nuclear and missile tech. If you teach your slave to use a sword, he may use it on you. However, Russia was testing space nukes when China was still an agricultural state. Now that they are in a defense agreement those Russian scientists can advance the NK equivalent programs very quickly. At the minimum they can seriously boost their efficiency.

A followup to that line of thinking, if China is not using the Koreans as a backdoor to supply the Russians, and Kim is actually just taking advantage of Russia needing a friend, I wonder how China will feel about sharing their servant.

[Guest 332]

North Korea is a small country with a relatively small population, offically 25 million, but perhaps as low as 20. Half the population is starving and the birthrate has collapsed. Malnutrition is the norm in the North Korean army. North Korea is not much of a threat beyond its weapons of mass destruction.

Do leaders living hyper-luxurious lives want to throw them away in a nuclear war?

No.

I think these autocrats want to remain in power with their luxury palaces, Rolls Royces, and women.

I don't think Putin, Xi, and Kim Jung Un are that bright, noit really. Putin's admirers all think he is playing 4D chess, a master of the game, and out manuvering NATO at every turn. That's not happening. Russia's economy is operating under massive levels of government stimulus that cannot be mainitained for much longer. It has entered a humiliating slave relationship with China in order to stave off collapse, and the standard of living in Russia outside of a few cities is Bronze Age, outhouse living. Working class males are being slaughtered in Ukraine (half a million dead and maimed Russians already) and much of the educated middle class has already fled the country.

Russia is not winning the war. Putin's bonkers trip to North Korea is a glaring example of this. Putin's essay in the North Korean newspaper's is crazy reading. And humilaiting. What must the Russians think of all this? Two weeks ago, the western press was declaring Ukraine on the brink of collapse and Russia winning. Now, even the weenies at FOX news can sense something is going very wrong in Russia.

Putin definetly wants to survive. Putin has murdered so many people and stolen so much money that he cannot retire.

Xi is a short-sighted bumbler that is rapidly destroying China's economy. Youth unemployement is probably 50%-70% rurally. Beijing is flooded with unemployed 'Little Emperors'. These are not the kind of people that join the PLA. Even if drafted, what kind of soldiers would these people make?

Is nuclear war possible, sure. I say 50-50 at this point. Let's just not exaggerate how strong these people really are. The West is a mess, but so are they.

[navigator1]

Im in London and don't have my password credentials with me. Testing to see if I can post.