Generational Dynamics World View News

[Tom Mazanec]

Will a few thousand megaton missiles shorten WWIII?

[Bob Butler]

I would agree with the five years, but sometimes is just takes that long to mobilize, learn the weapons of the time, then finally bring everything to a conclusion. I have the feeling that with the Civil War and World War II, the Union and US factions could have fought on longer if necessary, but they didn't have to. On the other hand, the Union was about to give up until Atalanta fell and the end came in sight.

I'd also mention that with proxy wars, if the major power is willing to stick with it, the proxy power is fighting for survival, and the defense has its usual advantage, you can get a long war such as Afghanistan.

But generally, good observations...

[John]

Sunday September 18th, 2022

I would agree with the five years, but sometimes is just takes that long to mobilize, learn the weapons of the time, then finally bring everything to a conclusion. I have the feeling that with the Civil War and World War II, the Union and US factions could have fought on longer if necessary, but they didn't have to. On the other hand, the Union was about to give up until Atalanta fell and the end came in sight.

I'd also mention that with proxy wars, if the major power is willing to stick with it, the proxy power is fighting for survival, and the defense has its usual advantage, you can get a long war such as Afghanistan.

But generally, good observations...

when I'm talking about a major war, I'm really thinking of a generational crisis War during a crisis era. in that case, the 5-year period would probably begin with the regeneracy and mobilization, and it would end with a crisis War climax.

a proxy war is never going to be a crisis war. the Afghanistan war was a non-crisis war. Afghanistan's crisis War occurred from 1991 to 1996, which is 5 years.

[John]

Sunday September 18th, 2022

Will a few thousand megaton missiles shorten WWIII?

well, let's see. suppose that each missile kills an average of a thousand people. so a few thousand missiles will kill a few million people. that's a tiny number compared to the population of the world and so in the end, the war the war will be decided on the ground.




___________________

[Tom Mazanec]

Sunday September 18th, 2022

Will a few thousand megaton missiles shorten WWIII?

well, let's see. suppose that each missile kills an average of a thousand people. so a few thousand missiles will kill a few million people. that's a tiny number compared to the population of the world and so in the end, the war the war will be decided on the ground.




___________________

John, I can't believe you, as brilliant as you are, just wrote that sentence. Megaton scale means 100-1000 Hiroshima bombs. It is as certain as possible without performing the experiment that this would lower the planet's average temperature by multiple degrees C, sharply cut sunlight, and reduce agricultural yields to a small fraction of normal for a couple years at least. And that assumes nothing else goes wrong.
It would not kill all eight billion of us (I hope), but easily seven billion.
That's a lot more than "a few million people".

[Navigator]

The belief is that no-one is going to use masses of thermonuclear warheads as that would mean the death of the planet and everyone on it.

To prevent such a catastrophe, each side has to offer the leadership of the other side a "safe retirement" option, as was given to the German Kaiser. Live out your life in luxury if you give up. This would be extended to Xi and Putin and their inner circles. They would offer similar concessions to Biden/Harris (if they haven't already done so).

I posted months ago about the planet being able to cope with 10-15 such explosions at the Max. Past this and everything. And I mean everything would die. All the senior leaders know and understand this.

Even Hitler opted not to use the weapons of mass destruction that he had available (Nerve gas) because he understood it would be used in retaliation against Germany if he did, and he knew that would be the end. Luckily, when he became suicidal (for his country as well as himself), he no longer had much of the means at his disposal. V2s could have been converted to chemical warheads, but they weren't.

[DaKardii]

Nearly 100 dead in Kyrgyz-Tajik border clashes; both countries are in a military alliance with Russia

https://www.reuters.com/world/kyrgyzsta ... 022-09-18/

[Tom Mazanec]

Yes, Navigator. I hope you are right.
But John has repeatedly said every nuke in the world will be used in anger in WWIII.

[Tom Mazanec]

Ukraine Latest: Zelenskiy Vows to Press Ahead and Retake Country
Bloomberg News
Sun, September 18, 2022 at 4:55 p.m.·7 min read
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ukrai ... 31057.html

Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion
By David Brunnstrom and Trevor Hunnicutt
September 19, 2022
5:02 AM EDT
Last Updated 4 hours ago
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-say ... 022-09-18/

U.S. Senate Proposes Sending $4.5 Billion to Taiwan
by Mac Slavo | Sep 15, 2022 | Headline News | 0 comments
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/ ... -to-taiwan

For Russia’s Putin, military and diplomatic pressures mount
By JON GAMBRELL
September 17, 2022
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... ab95ae4bd6

16 Sep, 2022 22:48
HomeWorld News
Israel strikes Damascus again – Syrian media
https://www.rt.com/news/562978-damascus ... li-strike/

Ukraine Latest: Ban on Russian Tourists Starts in Some EU States
Bloomberg News
September 19, 2022 at 2:50 AM EDTUpdated onSeptember 19, 2022 at 8:04 AM EDT
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mes-probes

Russia's war in Ukraine
By Aditi Sangal and Tara Subramaniam, CNN
Updated 8:21 a.m. ET, September 19, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... index.html

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 208
19 Sep 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/1 ... ts-day-208

[tim]

Sunday September 18th, 2022

Will a few thousand megaton missiles shorten WWIII?

well, let's see. suppose that each missile kills an average of a thousand people. so a few thousand missiles will kill a few million people. that's a tiny number compared to the population of the world and so in the end, the war the war will be decided on the ground.




___________________

John, I can't believe you, as brilliant as you are, just wrote that sentence. Megaton scale means 100-1000 Hiroshima bombs. It is as certain as possible without performing the experiment that this would lower the planet's average temperature by multiple degrees C, sharply cut sunlight, and reduce agricultural yields to a small fraction of normal for a couple years at least. And that assumes nothing else goes wrong.
It would not kill all eight billion of us (I hope), but easily seven billion.
That's a lot more than "a few million people".

You're repeating propaganda from the Communists. The idea that nuclear war is not survivable was a Communist ploy to trick the Americans into not preparing. Meanwhile, Russia and China have civil defense strategies and nuclear bomb shelters for their citizens.