27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

[Trump supporter]

> If Trump accepts a joke of an agreement with Kim Jung un, he will
> lose what support his has among his remaining followers.

> If Trump walks out and tells the North Koreans to go to hell, then
> he will be the greatest president of the last 50 years.

Doesn't matter. All roads lead to Rome.

(Rome = war)

It sounds like Trump is going to make an ultimatum. The North Koreans will make excuses. I hope Trump walks.

[Guest]

This deal looks like a bad one. Trump wants to save money on the military exercises by cancelling them (i agree with him). I don't think he expects the North Koreans to fulfill their obligations. I think he is waiting for the Mainland Chinese to attack him. I think everyone is toying with everyone.

[Guest]

> If Trump accepts a joke of an agreement with Kim Jung un, he will
> lose what support his has among his remaining followers.

> If Trump walks out and tells the North Koreans to go to hell, then
> he will be the greatest president of the last 50 years.

Doesn't matter. All roads lead to Rome.

(Rome = war)

Still think all roads lead to war, John?

[shoshin]

Here's the video
deo Trump presented to Kim. John, isn't it the antithesis of Bannon/GD? And the tag line at the end reminds me of that motto of the company from "Buckaroo Banzai," YoYo Dyne Propulsion Systems: "Where the Future Begins Tomorrow!"


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 76882&_rdr

[Guest]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e8fqMAE5WY

From the South China Morning Post (a paper I read every morning).

If things are supposed to be calming down, why is the Chinese government acting like this? Maybe they know something that others don't?

[Cynic Hero 86]

China wants US neutrality in Asia so that China can conquer and subjugate its regional rivals.

[John]

China wants US neutrality in Asia so that China can conquer and subjugate its regional rivals.

Where have you been? Have you been on vacation?

[John]

For some reason, everything that Trump does makes sense to me. That
doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but it still makes sense. And
that certainly wasn't true of Obama, who never made any sense to me at
all, and the results speak for themselves. I believe that the reason
that everything that Trump does makes sense to me is because of Steve
Bannon, who is an expert on Generational Dynamics, and who used to be
Trump's principal advisor, and is now, according to some reports, an
informal advisor.

Very little of the media coverage of the summit makes any sense since
everyone seems to be completely baffled, which is why I make a point
of saying that what Trump does makes sense to me. The pundits on the
left make idiotic claims that Kim is making a fool of Trump. I
remember particularly when Trump canceled the summit a couple of weeks
ago, Nancy Pelosi said that Kim was having a "giggle fit" over Trump's
naivete. This woman is so incredibly stupid, she should be locked up
in order to protect her from herself. But pundits on the right aren't
too much better, since they're equally baffled, and seem reduced to
expressing hope that everything all works out.

So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and
see if we can figure out what's really going on:

• "Trump is alienating our allies, including Justin
  Trudeau." Trudeau did something very stupid -- he dumped on
  Trump just as Trump was leaving for the Singapore summit, completely
  undercutting Trump's negotiating position. To preserve his
  negotiating position with Kim, Trump had no choice but to come down
  hard on Trudeau. The message to Kim was: Don't dump on Trump, or
  you'll regret it. Actually, Kim had already gotten that message when
  the NK press dumped on Trump, and Trump canceled the summit, forcing
  Kim to make amends.
• "Trump is lauding Kim, while he's condemning our
  allies." Well, if you want to get someone to agree with you in
  a negotiation, then complimenting him really helps. What's
  interesting about the Singapore meeting is that Kim appeared to be
  looking up to Trump as a paternal father-figure, and Trump was playing
  into that, in order to develop a friendly relationship with Kim. One
  possibility is that Kim is dissatisfied with the older staff in NK,
  and is looking at Trump as more sensible than they are.
• "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- meeting with him
  -- and got nothing in return." I don't even know what this
  means. This "concession" is worthless unless it leads somewhere. You
  have to meet with someone to negotiate with someone. Furthermore,
  what Kim knows is that the gains from this concession can be lost with
  a single tweet from Trump -- as happened with Trudeau.
• "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- canceling the war
  games -- and got nothing in return." This was a very smart
  move. It's not a concession at all, since the war games can be
  quickly reinstated at any time. It also strengthens Trump's
  negotiating position, because when China says, "Kim gave up something,
  now you have to give up something," Trump can say, "I already have --
  the war games. Now it's Kim's turn."
• "Trump had no nuclear experts with him at the meeting, and
  risked making a major technical mistake." Having an expert
  present at the meeting means that you're committed to agreeing with
  whatever the expert says at the meeting. Without an expert present,
  Trump can say "We'll have the experts work out the details later."
• "The agreement should have been worked out in detail in
  advance." That's one way to do it. Trump wanted to do it a
  different way -- meet with Kim on a personal level and work out the
  details later -- that's equally valid.
• "The final agreement contained no details." That's
  intentional. The details will be worked out later.

Recall that I've said in the past that the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump
administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons
and missile development.

Kim has completely failed in this objective. They had wanted, at this
point, for Trump to be on the defensive, and force him to make a
concession, specifically to reduce the sanctions. Trump has defeated
that objective in advance by canceling the war games.

The only way that Trump could "lose" this summit, is if he suddenly
agreed to remove sanctions. That would be a diplomatic disaster.

Remarkably, the ball is now in North Korea's court to make a
concession -- to provide the details for how they will denunclearize
according to the CVID template -- complete, verifiable, irreversible
denuclearization. If Kim can't come through, then the war games will
be back on, and the situation will return to square one. Also, Kim
would receive extreme paternal disapproval from Trump.

When Trump canceled the summit, the mainstream media were completely
baffled, and the left referred to Trump as a senile, inexperienced
idiot. I wrote that canceling the summit was a major diplomatic
victory for Trump:

** 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180525

That turned out to be exactly what happened, as the North Koreans
immediately started suing to get the summit back on track.

Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said,
everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has
done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's
possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done
everything right.

But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible, for
reasons I've given repeatedly in the past. Here's a summary:

• It's not Kim's decision. It's the decision of his military. As
  I've said before, I believe that if Kim seriously tried to force
  denuclearization, he'd be shot dead by one of his generals.
• North Korea has spent decades reaching nuclear nirvana, and they
  will not give it up now, even if Kim has stars in his eyes.
• The nuclear industry is part of a major military complex that
  controls a huge part of the economy. If the North starts reducing the
  military, it would be a major economic dislocation for the North.
• China is still full-on preparing to launch a war with the US, and
  North Korea is just a side show anyway.

There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.

First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The
reason that generational theory works is that population generations
are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians
want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be
made by the people, not by Kim.

Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems
that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has
yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no
solution exists.

The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were
a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a
solution, but it's not, since no solution exists.

[John]

Trump says "Sleep well tonight!"

Cf Neville Chamberlain. Is that supposed to be some kind of black
humor?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... th-korea-/

[thomasglee]

For some reason, everything that Trump does makes sense to me. That
doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but it still makes sense. And
that certainly wasn't true of Obama, who never made any sense to me at
all, and the results speak for themselves. I believe that the reason
that everything that Trump does makes sense to me is because of Steve
Bannon, who is an expert on Generational Dynamics, and who used to be
Trump's principal advisor, and is now, according to some reports, an
informal advisor.

Very little of the media coverage of the summit makes any sense since
everyone seems to be completely baffled, which is why I make a point
of saying that what Trump does makes sense to me. The pundits on the
left make idiotic claims that Kim is making a fool of Trump. I
remember particularly when Trump canceled the summit a couple of weeks
ago, Nancy Pelosi said that Kim was having a "giggle fit" over Trump's
naivete. This woman is so incredibly stupid, she should be locked up
in order to protect her from herself. But pundits on the right aren't
too much better, since they're equally baffled, and seem reduced to
expressing hope that everything all works out.

So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and
see if we can figure out what's really going on:

• "Trump is alienating our allies, including Justin
  Trudeau." Trudeau did something very stupid -- he dumped on
  Trump just as Trump was leaving for the Singapore summit, completely
  undercutting Trump's negotiating position. To preserve his
  negotiating position with Kim, Trump had no choice but to come down
  hard on Trudeau. The message to Kim was: Don't dump on Trump, or
  you'll regret it. Actually, Kim had already gotten that message when
  the NK press dumped on Trump, and Trump canceled the summit, forcing
  Kim to make amends.
• "Trump is lauding Kim, while he's condemning our
  allies." Well, if you want to get someone to agree with you in
  a negotiation, then complimenting him really helps. What's
  interesting about the Singapore meeting is that Kim appeared to be
  looking up to Trump as a paternal father-figure, and Trump was playing
  into that, in order to develop a friendly relationship with Kim. One
  possibility is that Kim is dissatisfied with the older staff in NK,
  and is looking at Trump as more sensible than they are.
• "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- meeting with him
  -- and got nothing in return." I don't even know what this
  means. This "concession" is worthless unless it leads somewhere. You
  have to meet with someone to negotiate with someone. Furthermore,
  what Kim knows is that the gains from this concession can be lost with
  a single tweet from Trump -- as happened with Trudeau.
• "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- canceling the war
  games -- and got nothing in return." This was a very smart
  move. It's not a concession at all, since the war games can be
  quickly reinstated at any time. It also strengthens Trump's
  negotiating position, because when China says, "Kim gave up something,
  now you have to give up something," Trump can say, "I already have --
  the war games. Now it's Kim's turn."
• "Trump had no nuclear experts with him at the meeting, and
  risked making a major technical mistake." Having an expert
  present at the meeting means that you're committed to agreeing with
  whatever the expert says at the meeting. Without an expert present,
  Trump can say "We'll have the experts work out the details later."
• "The agreement should have been worked out in detail in
  advance." That's one way to do it. Trump wanted to do it a
  different way -- meet with Kim on a personal level and work out the
  details later -- that's equally valid.
• "The final agreement contained no details." That's
  intentional. The details will be worked out later.

Recall that I've said in the past that the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump
administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons
and missile development.

Kim has completely failed in this objective. They had wanted, at this
point, for Trump to be on the defensive, and force him to make a
concession, specifically to reduce the sanctions. Trump has defeated
that objective in advance by canceling the war games.

The only way that Trump could "lose" this summit, is if he suddenly
agreed to remove sanctions. That would be a diplomatic disaster.

Remarkably, the ball is now in North Korea's court to make a
concession -- to provide the details for how they will denunclearize
according to the CVID template -- complete, verifiable, irreversible
denuclearization. If Kim can't come through, then the war games will
be back on, and the situation will return to square one. Also, Kim
would receive extreme paternal disapproval from Trump.

When Trump canceled the summit, the mainstream media were completely
baffled, and the left referred to Trump as a senile, inexperienced
idiot. I wrote that canceling the summit was a major diplomatic
victory for Trump:

** 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180525

That turned out to be exactly what happened, as the North Koreans
immediately started suing to get the summit back on track.

Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said,
everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has
done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's
possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done
everything right.

But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible, for
reasons I've given repeatedly in the past. Here's a summary:

• It's not Kim's decision. It's the decision of his military. As
  I've said before, I believe that if Kim seriously tried to force
  denuclearization, he'd be shot dead by one of his generals.
• North Korea has spent decades reaching nuclear nirvana, and they
  will not give it up now, even if Kim has stars in his eyes.
• The nuclear industry is part of a major military complex that
  controls a huge part of the economy. If the North starts reducing the
  military, it would be a major economic dislocation for the North.
• China is still full-on preparing to launch a war with the US, and
  North Korea is just a side show anyway.

There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.

First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The
reason that generational theory works is that population generations
are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians
want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be
made by the people, not by Kim.

Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems
that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has
yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no
solution exists.

The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were
a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a
solution, but it's not, since no solution exists.

I am so glad you put out what many of us have been thinking. We also have to remember that the regimes that bolstered norKorea for so long - Russian and China - have all moved on in the world and are now economic powers. North Korea wants the same. Trump handled this meeting masterfully and I am very pleased with the current progress. The future is looking brighter and to be honest, I'd rather have north Korea on our side in the coming war with China than against us.