Generational Dynamics World View News

[Trevor]

There's also China's threat to cut off pharmaceutical exports. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/busi ... drugs.html It's not a explicit threat as of yet, far as I've seen, but China's letting it hang over the head of western countries. Pundits are warning of what could happen if they take such a drastic step.

If they do indeed cut off exports of medicine, it could be a disaster, and it would certainly skyrocket the already considerable anti-Chinese sentiment. Few believe their claims that everything's under control, or if their numbers of cases are the actual number. Let's not forget China arrested one of their doctors months ago who tried to warn the CCP of the coronavirus. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... i-wenliang

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Buying oil

> Isn't the obvious thing for the US to do being to pay the shale
> oil companies a "stay alive" rate, while buying up a shitload of
> this "cheap overseas oil" and stashing it into the strategic
> reserve, until one (or both) of the "race to the bottom" oil
> producers can't sustain their production rates any longer?

> Why would we NOT save our production and reserve capability?

> Why would we buy expensive oil ("ours") when we could buy cheap
> oil ("theirs")?

> I'm sure I'm missing something, but it's probably just
> bureaucratic nonsense and BS.

> So, what am I missing?

Well, here are some things that you're missing:

• We have a free market economy. We sometimes bail out
  specific companies (like GM), but generally we don't bail out all
  companies in an entire industry.

Having a macro-free-market is not a suicide pact. <chuckle!>

Just call our "payments" to keep the industry alive a "retainer", and pretend they're lawyers!

• Many of the fracking companies are "malinvestments," and bailing
  them out would be throwing good money after bad. Remember
  Solyndra?

So, put on "retainer" those companies that were profitable six months ago.

• In the US-China trade wars, one of the Chinese practices that
  we're saying must end is the government subsidizing entire industries,
  in order to undercut American manufacturers and producers. So we
  don't want to do what we're criticizing China for.

We wouldn't be trying to undercut their manufacturer's and producers. In fact, we'd be buying FROM them their "freely offered" (voluntarily priced) "cheap" oil.

On the other hand, this is an emergency situation, and it may be
necessary to take emergency actions.

However, don't be surprised if China retaliates.

I say they are MORE than welcome to double the price of my crappy but usable Star Wars themed collapsible drinking straw!

..<chuckle!>...

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Italian coronavirus death toll climbs by 196 to 827 in 24 hours as country's top doctors say intensive care units should stop treating the elderly https://t.co/EzKIIU4tyf

Daily Mail Online Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) March 11, 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... mailonline

... hospitals should swap to 'catastrophe medicine' guidelines - typically used in war zones and during natural disasters - where those with the greatest chance of survival are given priority.

If a limit on beds is implemented it could mean elderly patients with no signs of coronavirus being turfed off ICU wards to make space for younger patients who have longer left to live.

The guidelines should apply to all patients needing intensive care treatment and not just those suffering from coronavrius, according to guidance published this week by the Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SAARI).

Somehow, SAARI seems like a really apt name for this situation!

[John]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Massachusetts

I usually don't watch the local (Boston) news, but I'm watching it
this evening. There's one story after another of schools closing,
businesses closing, etc. In one case, a student tested positive for
coronavirus, so they're closing the school for a couple of days, but
the story added that he was on the school bus with a lot of other
kids. So it looks like the virus is expanding rapidly in
Massachusetts. Things should look pretty different by next week.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

** 11-Mar-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Massachusetts

I usually don't watch the local (Boston) news, but I'm watching it
this evening. There's one story after another of schools closing,
businesses closing, etc. In one case, a student tested positive for
coronavirus, so they're closing the school for a couple of days, but
the story added that he was on the school bus with a lot of other
kids. So it looks like the virus is expanding rapidly in
Massachusetts. Things should look pretty different by next week.

[John]

** 12-Mar-2020 World View: Skepticism continues about China's coronavirus figures

• Is China telling the truth?

In America and the West, businesses are scrambling to do what it takes
to stay in business. If required, they're canceling events or closing
business locations to prevent spread of the virus. They're reworking
supply chains, implementing technology, dispersing employees or having
them work from home, and so forth. This is standard behavior in a
country like the US with free markets, where each business wants to
maximize profits and keep employees busy and happy. There are similar
motivations for governments and governmental organizations, who are
primarily motivated to maintain stability in their constituents.

The same sorts of motivations apply to businesses and organizations in
China, but they have an additional motivation: Meet the demands of the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to have no more Wuhan Coronavirus
infections.

I'm reminded of what happened in Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in
1958-59, where each region was required to meet quotas for crop
harvests. Here's how I described what happened in my book, "War
Between China and Japan":

"Early in 1959, and again in July 1959, officials in
Mao's government had begun to see that the program was failing.
Their objections were rewarded with punishment. Mao was
determined to follow his ideological course, no matter what else
happened. The result was disaster.

The individual peasants and managers were required to report the
size of the crop harvests up the line to the central government,
but there was no way to guarantee that the reports were accurate.

On the one hand, there was no economic incentive for the farmers
and managers to provide accurate reports, since everyone in a
socialist society is paid the same ("according to his need").

On the other hand, there was no independent check of the crop
harvest estimates. If the population had been much smaller, then
the central government might have been able to send out enough
bureaucrats to check the reports, or at least do spot checks. But
with a billion peasants, no such meaningful checks were possible.

For the farmers and managers themselves, there was plenty of
political incentive to overreport the crop harvest results.

As a result, even though actual crop yield in 1959 was a little
smaller than it had been in 1958, the crop reports added up to an
enormous increase in production, more than a doubling of output.

By the time that Chairman Mao was finally ready to accept the
situation, it was too late. There was too little food to feed
everyone, and tens of millions died of starvation."

So my feeling is that the current situation with coronavirus
infections is similar to Mao's Great Leap Forward. Individual
villages, towns and provinces are required to report the number of
virus infections up the line to the central government. But they
have no motivation to tell the truth, same as in Mao's day.

We know that the CCP is still censoring media, and punishing anyone
who dares to describe what's actually going on. It's quite likely
that any regional manager who reports an outbreak would be fired, or
even punished. So it seems quite likely that infections and outbreaks
are being hidden, or reported as other kinds of illnesses.

Here's one analysis from Thailand:

"China Continues To Lie? China Says No New Coronavirus
Cases Nationwide Outside Of Hubei!

Source: Coronavirus News Mar 10, 2020 2 days ago

Coronavirus Updates: China government authorities today announced
that there was no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases
outside of Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, for the
third straight day, while major Chinese cities remained on alert
for imported infections.

Seriously? Out of a population of 1.4 billion Chinese, where in
the rural sites, people are filthy with no proper regards for
hygiene standards or social behavior.

Doctors in provinces like Helionjang, Xinjiang, Henan and Shanxi
are telling a different story. According to a stringer,there is an
ever increasing amount of patients coming in with respiratory
symptoms but doctors have been given guidelines as to what
medications to prescribe and to admit them if serious but not to
conduct any diagnostic tests directly involved with Covid-19! A
check with hospitals in 4 provinces also showed that Covid-19 test
kits are not available in any of these hospitals.

Health authorities and medical entities have been given strict
warnings not to talk to the media and foreign entities while local
media have been prohibited from reporting on any local health
issues except official releases sent out to them.

Acording to the stringer, the Chinese government in its cover ups
has also started a massive PR programme including paying an
American writer who has been residing in Shanghai for years with
his Chinese wife and adopted children to write a few fake
conspiracy theory articles claiming that the new coronavirus
originated from the US. The Chinese government is also spending a
lot in buying sponsored content and ads on various newspapers
worldwide including one despicable English media in Thailand to
promote China discreetly.

The Chinese authorities reported that there 19 new cases of
coronavirus infections on Monday (March 9), the National Health
Commission said on Tuesday, down from 40 cases a day earlier.

Of the new cases, 17 were in Wuhan, the provincial capital of
Hubei which is under lockdown, while one was in Beijing and one
other in Guangdong due to people arriving from abroad, according
to the health authority.

Besides that, there was no new cases nationwide besides Hubei for
the last 3 days and that all new cases were basically foreigners
bringing the virus into China!"

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/c ... rom-china-

This describes exactly what I would expect from China. The Chinese
lie about everything. They've hidden the size of this epidemic for
months, and they censor any negative information. There have been
several reports that factories are re-opening as ghosts, with no
production but using electricity to give the appearance of being
normal. Furthermore, the CCP officials are afraid that they're going
to be blamed for what's happening. The full story has yet to be told.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019. Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/

[Navigator]

John,

From your Thai source above:

Acording to the stringer, the Chinese government in its cover ups
has also started a massive PR programme including paying an
American writer who has been residing in Shanghai for years with
his Chinese wife and adopted children to write a few fake
conspiracy theory articles claiming that the new coronavirus
originated from the US.

This could well be the origin of the "Blame the USA" that I figured would happen. It will be the core of the "Causus Belli".

I had always thought that a Financial meltdown would lead to war, which would then lead to disease outbreak. This time around the disease seems to be the "Black Swan" that will cause the financial meltdown that will lead to war.

The current panic is understandable, given that nothing seriously bad has happened in the western world since World War II.

It seems that smoking and vaping and exposure to high levels of air pollution, in addition to old age, are the biggest risk factors. People in Europe smoke like chimneys. Far in excess of what Chinese do. But then Chinese are exposed to air pollution at levels not experienced in the West since the 1940s (if every).

[Guest]

How much has the US stock market fallen now? I hear 7000 points, 5000, and even 9000. Does anyone know? What date do they start counting?

[Navigator]

Just saw this on another news feed:

A truly bombshell and unprecedented accusation, underscoring that if Sino-US relations amid the broader crisis weren't already bad enough, they're about to crash much, much lower: China's Foreign Ministry spokesman tweets "it might be the US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan" — the widely acknowledged epicenter and origin point of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Such shock allegations have recently been swirling in foreign media, especially in Chinese, Iranian and Russian press; however, this is the first time such a high Beijing has leveled the charge — this after President Trump controversially referred to it as a "foreign virus".

Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian made the remarks on his official Twitter account Thursday, citing prior televised testimony by CDC Director Robert Redfield to the House Oversight Committee

This will only accelerate as the financial pain of the shutdowns has serious effects on the Chinese population.

[John]

** 12-Mar-2020 World View: Stock prices

> How much has the US stock market fallen now? I hear 7000 points,
> 5000, and even 9000. Does anyone know? What date do they start
> counting?

As of this moment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has fallen
about 2000-2200 points today.

There are a lot of web sites that report this, usually with
a ten minute lag. Here's one such site:

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks

You can go to this page, and update it every few minutes.