Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 09-Jul-2020 World View: Infections

> On the 3%, I think that will prove to be a underestimation. When
> they did random antibody tests in different places in the US and
> elsewhere in April and May, we were getting at least 10x as many
> people infected as official totals everywhere, sometimes far more.
> I suspect that has probably decreased some with additional
> testing, but is also probably far higher in areas of the world
> where testing is rare. The CDC did come on board with saying 10x
> as many (although it didn't exactly make big news).
> https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/06/2 ... idis-says/

> The US is a bit shy of 3 million confirmed cases. That 10x number
> if it holds would put us close to 30 million already infected in
> America which is almost a 1/10 the population. That's mostly good
> news as it means the mortality rate on this is also a fraction of
> advertised and we are further along on this than most suspect
> (although we will probably never actually get rid of this).

> Further, there is actually a bit more good news in the numbers.
> We've had evidence people have cross-immunity from other diseases
> in this (other coronaviruses or something that helps out). I've
> seen suggestions from people I trust with numbers that it seems to
> be holding up near half the population (whether that is permanent
> protection or short term I do not know though). Given the R0 is
> estimated around a 3.0 in a completely vulnerable population, we
> need around 2/3 the population to be immune for herd immunity.
> Well if 1/2 the population already is (at least short term), then
> we only need around 17% of the population to get it (plus or minus
> depending on location) to get herd immunity.

> That makes sense with other numbers we've seen. The hard hit
> areas seem to be topping out at 20% and then the spread slows. My
> personal guess is New York City is already at herd immunity.
> Decreased social distancing there would create a spike in cases,
> but it would be impossible to get the runaway one like
> before.

If the 20% figure is true, it would make a big difference.

[Navigator]

I did some actual analysis last week. Here is what I found, using data from Canada, which I believe to be far less politically manipulated than data from many US states:

[Navigator]

https://ibb.co/x6TZSCT

[Navigator]

From the above, in case the images don't load soon:

The Diamond Princess was a good test for infection rates. Everyone onboard was exposed to the virus multiple times a day, as the food handlers had it.
about 10% of the people age 40 and below got it, while about 20% of those older got it.

Using even larger data, from Canada, regarding what happens when you get it:

for those 0-20: Your chance of getting it is 1/3 that of an Adult. If you get it, there is a 1.5% chance of needing to be hospitalized, almost no chance of dying

for those 20-40 (Adult): If you get it, there is a 2.5% chance of needing to be hospitalized, a 1 in 1000 chance of dying

for those 40-60 ("mature" Adult): If you get it, there is a 7% chance of needing to be hospitalized, a 0.76% chance of dying (7.6 deaths per thousand cases)

for those 60-80 (Senior): Your chance of getting it is the same as for other Adults. If you get it, there is a 21% chance of needing to be hospitalized (6% of having to go to ICU), a 12% chance of dying

for those over 80 ("super" Senior): Your chance of getting it is 5 times that of other Adults/Seniors. If you get it, there is a 19% chance of needing to be hospitalized (1% of having to go to ICU), a 34% chance of dying

[Navigator]

If 10% of the US population has WuHu flu (covid), then we are approaching the Diamond Princess infection rates, which means we would be close to having everyone get it who is going to get it.

[Guest]

If 10% of the US population has WuHu flu (covid), then we are approaching the Diamond Princess infection rates, which means we would be close to having everyone get it who is going to get it.

As always, thank you for the clarity, Navigator.

Have you updated your website recently?

Please post a link.

Thank you.

[Navigator]

I promise to shortly start writing articles for my website again. I have been dealing with some family health issues, and in getting us prepared for what is coming shortly.

[Millenial83]

wow John, you've certainly gotten very sensitive lately. I'll take it as a compliment as when you're taking this much fire you're usually right over the target.

[John]

** 10-Jul-2020 World View: Sensitivity

> wow John, you've certainly gotten very sensitive lately. I'll take
> it as a compliment as when you're taking this much fire you're
> usually right over the target.

Lol! No one would ever call me sensitive. I'm just tired of
dealing with the same old crap.

[Tom Mazanec]

What Will Be the Most Desirable Status Symbols in the Greater Depression?
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly20/s ... s7-20.html

Summer 2020 Economic Forecast: An even deeper recession with wider divergences
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... ip_20_1269

Depression and the Great American Exodus
https://dailyreckoning.com/depression-a ... an-exodus/

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Won’t Help
https://dailyreckoning.com/monetary-and ... wont-help/

Economy Won’t Recover Until 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/economy-wont ... ntil-2023/ (the cockeyed optimists )