Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

DaKardii, again, you are wrong about the petro dollar. The issue with the ME will be Iran against Israel et al

The Chinese will be waiting in the wings, the Russians and USA also waiting on the sidelines.

The Middle East doesn't matter. Period. It'll starve when shipping lanes are shut down, and that has far more to do with the larger powers actions than anything. I couldn't care less about Israel and the Middle East at this point, except for what our dumb pols drag us into.

I do agree that Israel and Iran will be on opposing sides, at least at first. But things are gonna get more complicated than that once the anti-Israel/anti-Saudi alliance between Iran and Turkey fractures (spoiler alert: China will play a significant role in this split, and will side with the Turks once it happens).

[John]

** 21-Jan-2021 World View: 9/11

Is any member of this forum besides me old enough to remember
9/11/2001? Do you remember how it unified the country? Do you
remember how we declared war on Afghanistan within 24 hours with no
dissent? Do you remember how it led to the fear of Iraqi WMDs and the
ground invasion of Iraq with little dissent? Most dissent was
retrospective, after the war, when it was clear that there were no
WMDs, and when the jihadist insurgency began.

So now imagine a major Chinese attack on an American city or American
ship or base. A day that will live in infamy. Is there anyone here
who wants to make the argument that the American people would be less
unified after such an attack than they were after 9/11/2001?

[Bob Butler]

Is any member of this forum besides me old enough to remember 9/11/2001? Do you remember how it unified the country? Do you remember how we declared war on Afghanistan within 24 hours with no dissent? Do you remember how it led to the fear of Iraqi WMDs and the ground invasion of Iraq with little dissent? Most dissent was retrospective, after the war, when it was clear that there were no WMDs, and when the jihadist incursion began.

So now imagine a major Chinese attack on an American city or American ship or base. A day that will live in infamy. Is there anyone here who wants to make the argument that the American people would be less unified after such an attack than they were after 9/11/2001?

I am old enough. Nitpick. Congress has not declared a war since World War II. Dissent developed after Iraq become an insurgent war, not after all war stopped. I don’t see the resistance as stopping, only in changing its nature.

But I don’t doubt there would be feeling towards revenge should we be attacked. I’ll just doubt the US will start a land war in Asia, or China a sea war with the US.

[Higgenbotham]

** 21-Jan-2021 World View: 9/11

Is any member of this forum besides me old enough to remember
9/11/2001? Do you remember how it unified the country? Do you
remember how we declared war on Afghanistan within 24 hours with no
dissent? Do you remember how it led to the fear of Iraqi WMDs and the
ground invasion of Iraq with little dissent? Most dissent was
retrospective, after the war, when it was clear that there were no
WMDs, and when the jihadist incursion began.

So now imagine a major Chinese attack on an American city or American
ship or base. A day that will live in infamy. Is there anyone here
who wants to make the argument that the American people would be less
unified after such an attack than they were after 9/11/2001?

I can't directly quote the below post because the thread is shut, but I copied it (from 2012). After reading the above question, it brought to mind this post from Reality Check. I believe Reality Check makes a very powerful argument that, given the stark choices in front of them, the Hero Generation will do what it needs to do in order to survive. I would wonder, though, whether too much time has passed for today's Hero Generation to assume their natural role - this generation currently being, I believe, 19 to 41 years old.

Re: Lone Gunman - Packed Theater - No One Interupts Shooting
Post by Reality Check » Sat Jul 21, 2012 4:28 pm

How does this fit in with the expectations of the Hero generation, also known as the millennial generation or generation Y?

It apparently proves they were either not born heroes, or they must reach a certain age before it kicks in.

I would suggest that they are not born heroes and they must learn to become heroes.

This theater shooting was one such lesson.

They learned they can not rely on the older Generation X adults to save children, women, members of the younger generation or anyone but their own individual, Generation X , lives. In this case Generation X simply ran for their individual lives, the heck with everyone else.

They also learned that the police, the government, and the movie theater run by Generation Xers and Baby Boomers, can not save them, the theater was almost right on top of a police station, but by the time someone called, the 911 operator went through the 911 routine, the police arrived and actually entered the theater, the gunman had returned to his car and was preparing to leave.

On September 11th, 2001 a lesson was learned and actions changed within a couple of hours.

Three planes on 911 were crashed by hijackers into targets the hijackers chose while unknowing passengers cowered in the back of the plane hoping for rescue.

The fourth plane on that day was different. The passengers knew cowering meant certain death. They learned from the other three planes and they chose conflict, control of the time and place of their self-rescue or near certain death. Some collective chance to live was better than no chance.

The entire hero generation will be faced with a life and death crisis ( or maybe several ) brought on by the actions and in-actions of Generations Xers and the Baby Boomers.

If they want to survive they will become heroes, or at least enough of them will to define the generation.

Not because they were born that way, but because they must do so to survive.

Re: GD Predictions - Mars Lander - Predicting the Future
Post by Reality Check » Mon Aug 06, 2012 5:35 am

The coming financial crisis and the coming crisis war are going to force the Hero generation, and to some extent, Generation Xers, to make choices.

They will be forced to chose because their very existence will depend on it. That is why it is a crisis.

The hero generation will be forced to go off and fight in the war because the alternative is to lose the war and likely your life.

Of course one of the possible results of going off to fight is to die.

The chosen fixes to the economy may actually make things worse, but not doing anything will be so bad, they will be forced to try something.

After surviving the war and the New Great Depression, those of the Hero generation who do survive, will know in their bones and their guts that they do have the power to change things and they will not fear making changes. What they will fear is allowing that which they just survived to occur again.

[Guest]

All things end. Freedom is over. America is over. Others have already laid it out so, I won't go on about it. Escape if you can.

[Guest]

All things end. Freedom is over. America is over. Others have already laid it out so, I won't go on about it. Escape if you can.

Haven't you already been going on and on about it for weeks?

[John]

** 21-Jan-2021 World View: Reality Check

> I can't directly quote the below post because the thread is shut,
> but I copied it (from 2012). After reading the above question, it
> brought to mind this post from Reality Check. I believe Reality
> Check makes a very powerful argument that, given the stark choices
> in front of them, the Hero Generation will do what it needs to do
> in order to survive. I would wonder, though, whether too much
> time has passed for today's Hero Generation to assume their
> natural role - this generation currently being, I believe, 19 to
> 41 years old.

I completely forgot that the Reality Check sub-forum was locked, and I
don't remember why, probably a consequence of my Methuselean age.
Anyway, I've just unlocked it.

[Guest]

All things end. Freedom is over. America is over. Others have already laid it out so, I won't go on about it. Escape if you can.

Haven't you already been going on and on about it for weeks?

Nope. Not.I. I thought it was you...

[Higgenbotham]

I would wonder, though, whether too much time has passed for today's Hero Generation to assume their natural role - this generation currently being, I believe, 19 to 41 years old.

This is probably not accurate.

I checked The Fourth Turning and it has the Millennial Generation starting in 2002 with no end date determined. Lifecourse Associates, which I think was established by Strauss and Howe says:

The Millennial Generation (born 1982–2004) arrived after the Consciousness Revolution, when “Baby on Board” signs first began to appear in car windows.

https://www.lifecourse.com/about/method ... ation.html

[John]

** 21-Jan-2021 World View: Millennial Generation

> This is probably not accurate.

> I checked The Fourth Turning and it has the Millennial Generation
> starting in 2002 with no end date determined.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Fourth
Turning begins 58 years after the climax of the preceding
crisis war, the Third Turning begins 20 years earlier,
and the Fifth Turning begins 20 years later.

Based on research I've done on Generational Dynamics, the eras
following WW II are as follows:

1st Turning begins in 1945 - Recovery Era
2nd Turning begins in 1963 - Awakening Era
3rd Turning begins in 1983 - Unraveling Era
4th Turning begins in 2003 - Crisis Era
5th Turning begins in 2023 = Fifth Turning

Each age group birth year begins four years earlier,
and so the Millennial generation has birth years 1979-1999.

I would caution that the Awakening-Unraveling border is very fuzzy,
while the other borders ae sharp.