Generational Dynamics World View News

[Phong Tran]

Hi John,

Please find some corrections below.

Code: Select all

Chapter 2. Overview of Contents 
- bullet point 2 (..., Daoism, and the [b]various[/b]...)

Chapter 3. Objectives of this book
- 2nd last paragraph (... believe that Ronald Reagon ... was a "[b]noble[/b]...) ?

Chapter 5. Getting a 'feel' for Vietnam
- 3rd last paragraph (... before Marx was born,... when [b]they[/b]...)
- 3rd last paragraph (... finally defeated with the help [b]of[/b]...)

Chapter 7.2 Russia - Perestroika and Glasnost
- 2nd last paragraph (... civic unrest mounted. bloody...) - capitalize B or comma after mounted

Chapter 7.3 - South Korea, Tawian... - the 'Asian Tigers'
- 2nd paragraph (... and oppressive [b]economics[/b]...)

Chapter 7.4 - The Doi Moi economic reforms
- 3rd paragraph (... restore more control [b]to[/b]...)

Chapter 10.3. Written law in Hiduism and Buddhism
- 2nd last paragraph (... laws of Hinduism or the Western [b]religions[/b].)

Chapter 13.4. Bodhisattvas in Mahayana Buddhism
- 2nd paragraph (In Sanscit / Sanskrit) ?

Chapter 16.2. Spread of Buddhism to Burma (Myranmar) and Siam (Thailand)
- 3rd paragraph (... centuries, Thailand [b]converted[/b]...)

Chapter 18.3. Collapse of the Han Dynasty
- 3rd last paragraph (... named Chang Kioh, by pretending to [b]have[/b]...)

Chapter 19. Changes to Daoism and Bhuddism
- 1st paragraph (In the Daoist tradition, [b]they[/b] found an irresistibly [u]was[/u] attractive "naturalness",)

Chapter 22.1. Northern rulers' adoption of Buddhism
- 1st paragraph (... and so it could [u]be[/u] ...)

Enjoying the read, very informational.
Thanks

[John]

** 12-Feb-2021 World View: Corrections

> Hi John, Please find some corrections below. ...

> Enjoying the read, very informational. Thanks

Thanks for the corrections. I've updated the manuscript online.

[Guest]

To Burner,

I am afraid I must disagree with your assessment of US food prices and imports. American agriculture is a juggernaut on nearly all fronts. The bread, eggs, and milk you mention are all going to be 100% American made and processed unless you are trying to find specific brands or specialty types of of products. They are loss leaders for the big chains because our production of these basic staples is so robust as to be considered automatic.

The prices you see in your farmers market reflect 1. The expense of producing on a relatively small scale 2. The cost of producing and selling your wares increasing drastically as you get closer to or deeper into urban areas. Usually you need a vendors permit, and a health certificate, plus stall rental and in the larger urban markets, usually there is a merchant's association to be joined by paying dues. Thats all before you produce a single thing to sell. Its California's environmental, packaging, and labor laws that make those apricots so expensive.

I will close by saying a quick Google of the import export statistics for the staple commodities (fruit that only grows in a three states and heavily regulated fisheries aside) shows that we export an order of magnitude more than we bring in.

[Burner Prime]

** 12-Feb-2021 World View: Inflation and Deflation

> The inflation/deflation debate is fun. The simplest way to look at
> it is by the very definitions. Inflation is the expansion of the
> money supply, deflation is the opposite. How it manifests is not
> obvious and people here are looking at markers that give false
> impressions.

Are you having fun making up stuff? The definition of inflation has
no relation whatsoever to the expansion of the money supply. You
don't even know what "expansion of the money supply" means.

From Investopedia:

What Is Inflation?

Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over
time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in
purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average
price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy
over some period of time. The rise in the general level of prices,
often expressed a a percentage means that a unit of currency
effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.

Inflation can be contrasted with deflation, which occurs when the
purchasing power of money increases and prices decline.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

Appreciate that and appreciate you proving my point. Great job, I see you're coming over to the side of inflation. I know it's hard to let go of long-held beliefs, so believe me, your evolution is certainly acknowledged.

I used to reference investopedia 20 years ago when I knew nothing. Now I rarely do. They are for beginners and amateurs. Eventually you graduate from Investor Grade School. They mention nothing about money supply; they botched it and you bought it, because you know even less.

Here is a much better definition: "Economics. a persistent, substantial rise in the general level of prices related to an increase in the volume of money and resulting in the loss of value of currency (opposed to deflation)."

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/inflation

So no, I wasn't making that stuff up.

For those who want a serious understanding about Economics look here: https://www.aier.org/
Leave investopedia for the normies. And listen to people who have it, not those who are destitute.

Ok, all joking aside, both definitions do a great job explaining, and with my examples demonstrates we are undergoing inflation that risks hyperinflation in the event we can no longer get cheap stuff from overseas.

Food prices across the board are rising, only held in nominal check by sourcing from other countries.
The same goes for transportation, medical commodities, durable goods. Many washing machines, and fridges are made in Mexico and elsewhere. The "basket of goods" includes massive numbers of goods obtained by net deficit import. It also includes education and medical care that is heavily subsidized by individual and Govt borrowing, so the real costs are born by IOUs. So the CPI is bullshit and a dupe for the masses and an excuse that allows the Fed to keep the printing press going. The only segment that shows low/no inflation due to bona fide domestic competitive sources is Education with all the online universities and targeted learning (learn to code) institutions popping up. Here Big Education is in Big Trouble as Google and other techs are dropping their requirement for formal 4 yr education.

CPI would be through the roof if we had to produce those things ourselves.

In the event of WWIII supply chains will be totally broken. All those container ships from China will cease and shipping from other ports will be torpedoed. Mexico will still be able to move stuff across the border for the most part. No more overseas sources of food and raw materials. Supply will not be able to meet demand. That is inflationary.

In the event of total depression (it would not just affect the US, it would be global), supply chains will also have an impact on prices because there is a floor on the cost of transport, especially over long distances. At some point foreign sources can't compete regardless of how low they can drive production costs. That's why locally-sourced goods and services provide the best example of real current pricing for those things. The CPI ignores that, and why it's bullshit. I can't say what will happen then, inflation or deflation as it depends heavily on human behavior. I just can't see any discipline or austerity being viable in the US with a population accustomed to cheap or free stuff. But in the case of WWIII, hyperinflation is certain because there will be no foreigners to borrow from, few to trade with, they will continue running the printing press, and supply will not meet demand.

There are so many ways Deflationists cherry pick examples that do not apply today at all. It's mainly because of our de-link from gold. For example Harry Dent cites deflations that happened in 1837-1842 and the Great Depression. But he misses as John does that the US was tied to the gold standard in those times and could not print dollars out of thin air to devalue the currency. In WWII we did borrow money in the form of war bonds, but that was nearly all domestic borrowing. Money printer enthusiasts rightly say they can print indefinitely but that's only if the debt is held domestically. Today that is not the case as foreigners hold about 40% of all public US debt. Hello Weimar Germany.

One great Deflationist Harry Dent explains why Weimar Germany happened but completely fails to see the parallel with the US today! He says that Weimar Germany had to pay off WWI debts (foreign debt, hello!) that got more and more expensive as they devalued their currency. The US keeps borrowing from foreign nations and from the Fed AND the Social Security Trust Fund, printing money, thereby devaluing our currency and making it more expensive to pay off that debt. It's astonishing. The only reason it hasn't resulted in a crisis is because EVERYBODY else is doing the same and devaluing THEIR currency. I suppose that can keep going on indefinitely if there weren't any trade imbalances, but that's not the case and we're on the losing end of that trade.

This is a good vid of Harry Dent vs Peter Schiff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIw-rO2ooIQ

The other argument Dent makes over and over is "I just don't see inflation!". That's right, he relies on the nominal prices he's seeing that rely on goods and services heavily dependent on foreign sourcing or subsidized by Govt debt. He is myopic and blind to the whole picture much the same way they cherry pick historic examples of inflation or deflation without regard to context. In war they call it target fixation. It is a fatal flaw. John's target fixation is P/E.

Another thing the CPI is ignoring is rising Stonk prices. They do include "housing cost" that had been slowly *accelerating* prior to Covid (since 2010, prior to rent moratorium) which takes into account the current RE inflation. I think here's another example where Deflationistas assume incorrectly that all that fake wealth will be wiped out, in essence, the destruction of a lot of that printed currency that fed the bubbles - which would be deflationary (contraction of the money supply). In a depression stonk nominal prices will fall, but that will have a floor based on their intrinsic value. Peter Schiff argues that their nominal price will fall but not in terms of gold. He is a gold bug so I can't say, but I know there's an intrinsic value floor. On top of that the prices won't fall in the absence of trading so the current holders who sell on the way down will retain a lot of those printed dollars. Only the holdouts who ride it to the bottom and are forced to liquidate lose and jump out the 40th floor window. There's also going to be future geniuses who never sell, regardless of how low because they don't have to, only care about dividends, knew the value at the time of purchase and didn't overpay. If Peter Schiff is right they win in short and long-term. If John and Dent are right they win long-term.

In the end, inflation is inevitable unless somehow the people in charge shut off the printing press. Or if we somehow start running trade surpluses. But these days, regardless of any crisis or disaster, the instinct of the Govt is to crank up the presses to warp speed. Austerity is never an option.

Are you gonna be able to buy more or less goods and services in the event of WWIII or depression? In the event of WWIII, certainly less, in the case of depression, depends on the money printer speed, stimulus checks, UBI, rent-free housing - things non-existent on the Great Depression. Based on past BRRRR, I'd say less.

[Burner Prime]

To Burner,

I am afraid I must disagree with your assessment of US food prices and imports. American agriculture is a juggernaut on nearly all fronts. The bread, eggs, and milk you mention are all going to be 100% American made and processed unless you are trying to find specific brands or specialty types of of products. They are loss leaders for the big chains because our production of these basic staples is so robust as to be considered automatic.

The prices you see in your farmers market reflect 1. The expense of producing on a relatively small scale 2. The cost of producing and selling your wares increasing drastically as you get closer to or deeper into urban areas. Usually you need a vendors permit, and a health certificate, plus stall rental and in the larger urban markets, usually there is a merchant's association to be joined by paying dues. Thats all before you produce a single thing to sell. Its California's environmental, packaging, and labor laws that make those apricots so expensive.

I will close by saying a quick Google of the import export statistics for the staple commodities (fruit that only grows in a three states and heavily regulated fisheries aside) shows that we export an order of magnitude more than we bring in.

I wish you had provided a link for your import/export stats. I will include one from the USDA. It may be dated but not by much. It does not demonstrate any kind of "juggernaut" at all. Our agricultural surplus is a paltry $10B and is shrinking. We import nearly as much as we export and have for a long time. I won't factor subsidies (financed by money printing) because both sides do it.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ ... ral-trade/

Bread milk and egg prices are examples of the real unsubsidized cost of obtaining those goods nearby. No matter how you slice and dice it, those are real actual costs that allow the vendor to sustain operations. In the event of WWIII or depression that "juggernaut" can't rely on the 5 or so big specialty exports but will be forced to diversify and provide ALL of our food needs. Economies of scale will be reduced and shipping long distances will increase costs of things grown far away. Anyway, those are mainly ballpark ways to judge what a dollar buys today and if you discount those three things, fine. It's an example in one single area. Don't care.

I don't care the cost of operations and regulations related to local goods and California apricots. What matters is: Does it represent an example of a higher priced item tomorrow vs today? Answer is yes. Consumers choose lower cost similar items produced in other countries, thereby distorting the cost of that THING in the CPI. So when you got free paper money, created from thin air from the stimulus (i.e. inflation), you spent it on evil Turkish apricots instead of expensive woke California ones; you exported that inflation to Turkey. I don't care about regulations and neither does the fact we exported inflation caused by that free money from the printing press. So the result is an artificially low CPI. If you disagree with that then make your case.

The thesis still holds. The only reason food price inflation isn't apparent is because we are importing more and more food items. Food isn't just milk and eggs it's also Ritz crackers, now also made in Mexico. Pineapples come from Mexico now, not Hawaii. Avocados come from Mexico now, not California. We're exporting the inflation that would otherwise be evidenced by purchasing those same items in the US.

Anyway food is just one component of that "basket".
That paltry $10B surplus pales to our overall net deficit of $700B.

[Unregistered]

The next four years of the Biden/ Harris administration will be a shotgun blast to the face of America. I seriously doubt the Republic will survive. We are about to become Mexico. America will become a 3rd world country with poor infrastructure, rolling black outs, bad roads, and substandard medical care. Crime will be completely out of control and life for Americans will be unbearable. Americans so used to Rule of Law, functioning public utilites, and safe streets will find themselves unwanted in their own country except as mules to do all of the work and pay all of the taxes. Americans will be stangers in a stange land.

I await the flying monkeys.

[Guest]

At least we will have plenty of fat, tattooed, pierced, and "triggered" women to keep us warm.

[Phong Tran]

Hi John,

Some more sentences that need alteration.

Code: Select all

Chapter 23.3. Great Buddhist movements during Sui-Tang dynasties
- last paragraph (... what's important [b]is[/b] that ...)

Chapter 23.4. The school of meditation: Ch'an or Zen Buddhism
- 2nd last paragraph (...had gradually come to pervade all [b]classes[/b]...)

Chapter 23.5. The catatrsophic An Lu-shan Rebellion
- 2nd paragraph (... also known as [b]the[/b] An-Shi Rebellion...)

Chapter 23.6. Union of Uighurs and Tibetans
- last paragraph (Similar [b]atrocious[/b] crimes...)

Chapter 26.3. Growth of Dong Son culture
- 2nd last paragraph (... settlements. [b]The[/b] bronze drums...)

Chapter 27.3. Trung Sisters Rebellion 
- 3rd paragraph (... leaders were no different [b]then than[/b] they are today...)

Chapter 28.1. Funan Culture and Oc-Eo port city
- 2nd paragraph (... this port played [b]an[/b] important role...)

Part VIII. Nine centuries [b]of of[/b] Vietnam independence

Chapter 32. Vietnam villages
- 2nd paragraph (... forces that caused Vietnam [b]to uniquely[/b] adopt this organization...)
- 3rd last paragraph (... considered to be the domain [b]of[/b] the Emperor.)

Chapter 34. Early Le Dynasty
- 3rd last paragraph (... able to defeat [s]in[/s] the invading...)

Chapter 35.2 Development of agriculture in Red River delta
- paragraph 3 seems a shorter repeat of paragraph 4

Chapter 35.4. Growth of Buddhism in Nam Vietnam
- last paragraph (... villages and hamlets. Here[b],[/b] mixed with...)

Chapter 35.5. Buddhism in central and south Vietnam
- last paragraph (... expansion, though other forms [b]of[/b] Buddhism are...)

Chapter 35.6. Champa Kingdom conquest by Angkor Khmers
- 3rd paragraph (... series of battles led to the loss of their northern [b]provinces[/b] ...) 
- 2nd last paragraph (... fended off until finally, in 1203, [s]and[/s] the Khmers...)

Chapter 36.4. Tran soldiers defeat Mongols in Battle of Bach Dang
- 2nd paragraph (... ships into a bed of metal-tipped spikes, causing [s]them[/s] the ships...)

Chapter 38.2. Destruction of Champa Kingdom
- 2nd last paragraph (Beyond it[b],[/b] in the far south[b],[/b] a diminutive...)

Chapter 38.5. Decline of the Le Dynasty
- 2nd last paragraph (... discontent because [s]where[/s] many peasants remained...)

Chapter 40.1. The Ho (Nguyen) brothers begin the Tay-Son rebellion
- last paragraph (Although they took the name Nguyen, [b]they[/b] were unconnected...)

Thanks

[DaKardii]

John, I read some of your manuscript, and I have one correction so far.

The 1830s crisis war that Thailand fought was waged during the reign of Mongkut's brother, Nangklao (Rama III). Mongkut did not ascend the throne until 1851.

[John]

** 13-Feb-2021 World View: Corrections

Phong and DaKardii: Thanks for the corrections. I've incorporated
them into the online text.

Phong: What do you think about the book? Does it present a fair
picture of Vietnam? And what about you? Does the Battle of Bach Dang
River, where the Vietnamese won a brilliant victory over the Chinese
and ended Chinese rule, fill you with nationalistic pride?