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** 15-Feb-2021 World View: Last edits

Phong Tran wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:34 pm

> Last sections for possible edits. ... .... ....

> You're very welcome. I thoroughly enjoyed it (in that Greek
> tragedy sort of way) as you can probably tell by how fast I
> finished

> I was wondering if you were planning to include a generational
> historical breakdown of Vietnam, the same way that a breakdown for
> the history of Myanmar (Burma) was presented? I'm sure all the
> information is available in the book, but not sure if there's a
> place that summarizes the generational theory periods and their
> historical significance. Thanks

Thank you for all your work. You've been a big help. Your
corrections are online.

I've scattered partial generational histories throughout the book.
But it's very hard to do that for Vietnam, because the country's
history is so chaotic, with wars and miniwars constantly going on in
different regions. Even today, there are 54 recognized ethnic groups,
most of which hate one or more of the others. So it's really hard to
get anything coherent out of that, but I'll try to do something.

** 15-Feb-2021 World View: The straw that breaks the camel's back

Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:58 pm

> The thing about John is that he has been forecasting economic
> collapse and war for 15 years, and always says his predictions are
> "tracking" true. He doesn't know whether the Depression or War
> will come first, but that whichever, the one will trigger the
> other within a few months. If it is Depression he seems to believe
> it will start with a stock market collapse worse than 1929, and
> the Dow will quickly lose 90% of its value. Meanwhile, the 99%
> are living in virtual Depression or on government largess (like
> me) and the Dow is at record territory. I was persuaded by him
> back in the day, but I am getting more skeptical. Still, he has a
> good viewpoint.

This is an interesting comment, because you're apparently flip-flopping
in the opposite direction of other people.

Back around 2003-2005, most people treated me as a kook, like that old
guy in the cartoon who lives on a mountaintop, but occasionally comes
down, carrying a sign that says "The end of the world is near."

Today, far fewer people consider me a kook. Some get angry at me,
because I'm not sufficiently left-wing or right-wing, which I
interpret as expressing visceral fear that I'm right. But there are
now a large group of members of and visitors to this forum that
generally accept the GD predictions of global financial crisis and war
with China. Many people have posted their own scenarios for how those
crises are likely to go.

But you've gone in the opposite direction. In the mid-2000s decades,
as I recall, you accepted the GD predictions of global financial
crisis and war with China, but now you're becoming more skeptical --
not because the reasoning has changed, but because it's taking too
long.

I'll just close by repeating the "straw that breaks the camel's back"
analogy.

If someone keeps piling straw on the camel's back, then you know that
the camel's back will break at some point. But if the camel has an
especially strong back, then it may not break for a very long time.
But that doesn't change the bottom line: If you keep piling straw on
the camel's back, then the back must eventually break, even if it's a
strong back, and takes a long time.

Zoomer go Brr wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:01 am

Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:58 pm

The thing about John is that he has been forecasting economic collapse and war for 15 years, and always says his predictions are "tracking" true. He doesn't know whether the Depression or War will come first, but that whichever, the one will trigger the other within a few months. If it is Depression he seems to believe it will start with a stock market collapse worse than 1929, and the Dow will quickly lose 90% of its value.
Meanwhile, the 99% are living in virtual Depression or on government largess (like me) and the Dow is at record territory.
I was persuaded by him back in the day, but I am getting more skeptical. Still, he has a good viewpoint.

Money printer go Brr, stonks only go up - the mantra of the day

Nothing will burst as long as the fed babysits the market and continues to inflate it. It will take one party deciding to end it (we know it won’t be Democrats, they have to prove they’re better than Trump and live free money), or it will be an external crises (war).

It's the people who want the cheap/free stuff, and plug their ears when anyone talks about being responsible. The politicians are voted in by the people who want the free stuff. Even the Republicans go along with the charade, though maybe slow things down a tiny bit. Trump showed himself to be more of a swamp beast than expected when he kept chiding the Fed to keep rates low, even in a decent economy.

So whether we're in prosperous times or disastrous times, the Fed will do QE infinity. And they can keep doing it as long as other countries do the same, which they are. Everyone is printing and trying to weaken their currency to try to stay trade competitive. There will never be any kind of austerity. In the Great Depression, austerity was forced on the population. No chance of that today, since the Govt. will just respond by printing and spending.

Like you say the only thing that will end it is a crisis war. Then trade will slow to a trickle, and dollars will pile up in wheel barrows, instead of being shipped off to China as we do now. Forget guns, ammo and MREs, make sure you got a big azz wheel barrow to go buy your loaf of bread.

** 15-Feb-2021 World View: Myanmar / Burma - Violence escalates further

• Tanks of the streets of Yangon during rush hour on Monday (Guardian)

The army in Myanmar / Burma is escalating its operations to try to
bring anti-army protests to an end. The protests began with the army
coup on February 1, when the sainted leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her
government officials were arrested for reasons still not fully
understood, and were replaced by an army junta. Protesters are
demanding that she be released, and that democracy be restored.

The army had hoped that the protests would fizzle quickly, but they've
continued. In Yangon, the protests are at the Chinese Embassy, as the
protesters accuse China of backing the army. (The Chinese
Communists consider democracy to be a "poison," so the protesters are
probably right.)

Security forces have begun targeting peaceful protesters with rubber
bullets in Yangon, Mandalay, and other cities according to reports.
Tanks have been filling the streets, and in Yangon, eight-wheeled
armoured vehicles have been seen trying to navigate the rush-hour
traffic, sometimes surrounded by cars honking their opposition to the
coup.

The army shut down the internet across the country on Sunday for eight
hours, but finally restored it.

It's believed that the army is building up to massive bloody violence
against protesters, such as it used in 2007 and 1988.

However, they may be reluctant because of international pressure from
the UN, US, EU and other nations. Furthermore, the Biden
administration is threatening sanctions that would target the
international business dealings of the army generals, and that threat
may temporarily delay further escalation of violence.

However, according to some reports, the security forces may be
planning a new tactic. The army has pardoned 23,000 prison inmates,
and the reports indicate that they have been exhibiting "thuggish
behavior" late at night to create community disturbances. Many
neighborhoods have formed night-time vigilante groups to deter these
thugs, who are rumored to have been dispatched by the army junta.

This is quite believable, since it's part of the standard playbook
used by government officials before a violent crackdown. The
government provokes some kind of violent incident, then uses that
violent incident to declare that all the peaceful protesters are
really "domestic terrorists," so that violence against them can be
justified. See:

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210112


This is the same playbook used by Burma against the Rohingyas and by
China against the Uighurs. So if these reports are correct, then we
can expect to see a lot more violence in the next few days.


---- Sources:

-- Myanmar: troops and police forcefully disperse marchers in Mandalay
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... an-suu-kyi
(Guardian, London, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar coup: Protesters face up to 20 years in prison under new
law
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56067423
(BBC, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Tycoons Close to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Interrogated by Myanmar
Military
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/ty ... itary.html
(The Irrawaddy, Burma, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar Vigilante Groups Formed to Handle Night Thugs A vigilante
group patrols in a Yangon neighborhood.
https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/my ... thugs.html
(The Irrawaddy, Burma, 14-Feb-2021)

-- Myanmar security forces intensify crackdown on protesters
https://apnews.com/article/aung-san-suu ... 2ff6827978
(AP, 15-Feb-2021)

-- Aung San Suu Kyi detention extended
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/ ... 2003752334
(Taipei Times, 16-Feb-2021)

-- US sanctions on Myanmar: 5 things to know
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanm ... gs-to-know
(Nikkei, 12-Feb-2021)


---- Related articles:

** 12-Jan-21 World View -- America and the standard Genocide Playbook
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210112


** 8-Feb-21 World View -- Violence feared in Myanmar/Burma as pro-democracy protests grow -- Similarity between Burma and Washington DC
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210208


** 2-Feb-21 World View -- Myanmar (Burma) military coup as army arrests Aung San Suu Kyi government officials
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210202

John wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:00 pm

In Yangon, the protests are at the Chinese Embassy, as the
protesters accuse China of backing the protests. (The Chinese
Communists consider democracy to be a "poison," so the protesters are
probably right.)

I think you mean the protestors accuse China of backing the army.

DaKardii wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:22 am

John wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:00 pm

In Yangon, the protests are at the Chinese Embassy, as the
protesters accuse China of backing the protests. (The Chinese
Communists consider democracy to be a "poison," so the protesters are
probably right.)

I think you mean the protestors accuse China of backing the army.

Thanks for the correction.

John wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:09 pm

** 15-Feb-2021 World View: The straw that breaks the camel's back
I'll just close by repeating the "straw that breaks the camel's back"
analogy.

If someone keeps piling straw on the camel's back, then you know that
the camel's back will break at some point. But if the camel has an
especially strong back, then it may not break for a very long time.
But that doesn't change the bottom line: If you keep piling straw on
the camel's back, then the back must eventually break, even if it's a
strong back, and takes a long time.

Today Martin Armstrong was interviewed and he used the exact same idiom. He said that the impeachment of Trump may be the straw that broke that camel's back. He said the second impeachment of Trump was unconstitutional and that's why Judge Roberts refused to preside over it. He thinks it is the end of constitutional government. He thinks that honest elections are probably at an end too.

** 16-Feb-2021 World View: Book cover

The following is the book cover as it currently stands:



So I have no color coordination skills, so I'm looking for suggestions
for colors.

The colors that I chose -- purple and blue -- are based on the
following that I found on a web site:

Basic Vietnamese Color Meanings
* Red – happiness, love, luck, celebration
* Yellow – wealth, prosperity, royalty, happiness, change
* Green – jealousy, lust
* Blue – calmness, hope, growth
* Purple – nostalgia, sadness, fragility, tenderness
* White – purity, death, the end
* Black – evil

The red rectangle with the yellow star is the Vietnamese flag.

The picture is a port in the Mekong Delta near Saigon.

I might have used red and yellow for the entire cover, rather than
purple and blue, but those are the colors that I used on my China
book.

Suggestions for improving the cover text, including the entire book
title and subtitle, are also welcome.

For comparison purposes, here are the covers of my Iran and China books:

Here's a very interesting quotation I found in Zbigniew Brzezinski's 1997 book The Grand Chessboard. This is the same book that conceived the idea of the "Eurasian Balkans" which I've mentioned in earlier posts, btw.

In brief, for the United States, Eurasian geostrategy involves the purposeful management of geostrategically dynamic states and the careful handling of geopolitically catalytic states, in keeping with the twin interests of America in the short-term preservation of its unique global power and in the long-run transformation of it into increasingly institutionalized global cooperation. To put it in a terminology that hearkens back to the more brutal age of ancient empires, the three grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming together.

In those three sentences, Brzezinski (1) strongly implies that American imperialism is necessary; (2) calls American allies "vassals" and "tributaries;" and (3) calls American geopolitical rivals in Eurasia "barbarians."

I have zero doubt that many people in our foreign policy establishment have these same beliefs, which are easily just as delusional as the pipe dreams of the CCP.

Yellow is opposite of purple/blue on the color wheel. If you keep the purple cover, I would make most of the text in yellow (or white) for readability. Alternatively, you could use a yellow cover with purple as the accent text (title, etc.) and continue to use black text for the back.
Just a suggestion (purple/yellow is one of my favorite color combinations).

John wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:29 pm

** 16-Feb-2021 World View: Book cover

The following is the book cover as it currently stands:



So I have no color coordination skills, so I'm looking for suggestions
for colors.

The colors that I chose -- purple and blue -- are based on the
following that I found on a web site:

Basic Vietnamese Color Meanings
* Red – happiness, love, luck, celebration
* Yellow – wealth, prosperity, royalty, happiness, change
* Green – jealousy, lust
* Blue – calmness, hope, growth
* Purple – nostalgia, sadness, fragility, tenderness
* White – purity, death, the end
* Black – evil

The red rectangle with the yellow star is the Vietnamese flag.

The picture is a port in the Mekong Delta near Saigon.

I might have used red and yellow for the entire cover, rather than
purple and blue, but those are the colors that I used on my China
book.

Suggestions for improving the cover text, including the entire book
title and subtitle, are also welcome.

For comparison purposes, here are the covers of my Iran and China books: