Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 05-Oct-2021 World View: China threatens Taiwan

During the last six days, I've moved to a new apartment, and I still
can't figure out where many things are in the new apartment. Over the
weekend, my computer's disk drive crashed. Fortunately, I'm pretty
reliable about keeping file backups, but setting up a new computer is
unpleasant because some things that used to work on the old system
don't work on the new system. All of this has been extremely
overwhelming, and it turns out that at age 77 it's even more so, when
everything happens at once.

• When it rains, it pours (Morton Salt)

At any rate, I'm still overwhelmed, but I'm getting back to things.

Over the years, I've written several books and thousands of articles
analyzing events in hundreds of countries over millennia of history.
These analyses have been, at their core, based on generational theory
as incorporated in the Generational Dynamics theory and methodology.

Over the years, I've tried to search for the answers to obvious
questions. How can we tell when a financial crash is about to occur?
How can we tell when a war is about to break out?

We know that the stock market has to crash, but how can we tell
it's about to happen? We know that China and the US are going to
a war, but how can we tell when it's about to happen?

Back in 2004-2006 I was particularly puzzled about this. The
China-Taiwan issue was already very big at that time, and I was
puzzled by war wasn't already breaking out. It's not that I
wanted war to break out. Rather, I just wanted to understand
what was going on.

At that time, the movie "A Beautiful Mind" came out, about the
mathematician John Nash who had developed the mathematics
of game theory. I had studied a little game theory when I was
at MIT, but the movie stimulated me into thinking that Nash's
game theory applied to the entire world, and explained why no
war had broken out.

So I wrote the following article:

** A beautiful mind? The world is paralyzed into a 'Nash equilibrium' (17-Jul-2006)
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 17nash.htm


I concluded that the world was in a "Nash equilibrium," with the
result that "The world today is in a kind of Nash equilibrium, where
every country is paralyzed into inaction, for fear of disturbing the
equilibrium and starting a war."

That was one of the most interesting articles I've written, and the
methodology it describes does have a fair amount of validity.

In that article, I wrote:

"The status of Taiwan has been kept ambiguous for
decades, in an equilibrium that keeps the peace between China and
the U.S. The One-China Policy states that there is only one
China, and that mainland China and Taiwan are part of China.
However, a date for "reunification" of China has never been set,
since doing so would generate an international crisis and war.

Thus, we have a "game" being played by (among others) China,
Taiwan and the U.S., and the game is in equilibrium, because none
of these countries can recognize any change in status of Taiwan
without provoking a war.

But here's the problem: The assumption behind John Nash's concept
of equilibrium is that the rules of the game are not allowed to
change as the game progresses. In the case of international
relations, the rules change all the time -- thanks to the rise of
new generations.

And when new generations rise, then the equilibrium can no longer
be maintained, and it's no longer possible for each player to
follow the equilibrium strategy."

It's very interesting to read that again in light of today's events,
because China is definitely changing the rules of the game, by
flooding Taiwan's air space with Chinese warplanes.

• Chinese warplanes incursions into Taiwan air space (BBC)

Furthermore, the Chinese rhetoric accompanying these acts is
highly belligerent. Here's an editorial from state media:

"According to statistics from Taiwan island, the PLA
has sent warplanes into the island's "airspace" in 198 days so far
this year. Such a number reflects that the PLA has carried out
wide-ranged and profound operations to familiarize itself with
battlefield conditions, with a large number of PLA Air Force units
having experience flying close to the island. Once the order to
attack is given, the PLA's pilots will fight as "experienced
veterans."

The DPP authorities have violated the 1992 consensus and are
recklessly in pursuit of secessionism. They are willing to act as
an anti-China chess piece in conjunction with the US, and thus has
pushed the Straits situation to the brink. They have constantly
hyped up claims that they are at the forefront of the so-called
democratic world to resist "authoritarian rule." They have thus
turned themselves into a block that the Chinese mainland must get
rid of strategically and an evil force the mainland must crush.

The PLA is forming a siege of Taiwan with a show of strength as it
did in Beijing in 1949. There is no doubt about the future of the
situation across the Taiwan Straits. The initiative of when and
how to solve the Taiwan question is firmly in the hands of the
Chinese mainland."

So this situation can be interpreted in two different ways:

• It may mean that an invasion of China is imminent.
• It may mean that the current incursions are temporary, in order
  to give develop "experienced veterans."

We've had discussions in this thread about China's timing -- will the
invasion begin before Halloween, will it begin after the spring
Olympics. Or maybe China will postpone the invasion for a year
or two, to develop more "experienced veterans," or to wait and see
what Biden does.

This situation then does not tell us the date of China's invasion, but
I think it does help us understand what's going on in the world, and
is part of the explanation for why the rise of young generations
causes old compromises to be thrown out and the population becomes
increasingly nationalistic and belligerent.

By the way, anyone who wants to contact me by snail mail
should use my new address, which is the same except for the
apartment number:

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 2-03C [New apartment number]
Cambridge, MA 02142


---- Sources:

-- China mounts largest incursion yet near Taiwan, blames U.S. for
tensions
https://news.trust.org/item/20211004144313-afbyb
(Reuters, 4-Oct-2021)

-- Record number of PLA warplanes flying over Taiwan Straits as form
of National Day ‘military parade’
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235605.shtml
(GlobalTimes, 3-Oct-2021)

-- Taiwan says it's 'on alert' amid China air incursions
https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-says-its-o ... a-59406455
(Deutche Welle, 5-Oct-2021)

-- Record number of China planes enter Taiwan air defence zone
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58794094
(BBC, 5-Oct-2021)

-- The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -all-costs
(Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2021)

[thomasglee]

So this situation can be interpreted in two different ways:

• It may mean that an invasion of China is imminent.
• It may mean that the current incursions are temporary, in order
  to give develop "experienced veterans."

We've had discussions in this thread about China's timing -- will the
invasion begin before Halloween, will it begin after the spring
Olympics. Or maybe China will postpone the invasion for a year
or two, to develop more "experienced veterans," or to wait and see
what Biden does.

This situation then does not tell us the date of China's invasion, but
I think it does help us understand what's going on in the world, and
is part of the explanation for why the rise of young generations
causes old compromises to be thrown out and the population becomes
increasingly nationalistic and belligerent.

China will attack once they believe our financial implosion is imminent (they may even help push us over the edge).

China has only thrived due to America's consumption. Once we stop consuming, their economy will collapse and then there will be internal struggles. As such, China has NO CHOICE but to create a distraction.

[Cool Breeze]

Global Warming' is a 'politicised'(faked up) science quasi-marxist UN Wealth Transfer scam

- and the truth no one dares to speak is:

The UK is sitting on the answer to all our energy problems :

COAL

We have masses of it. It is our great natural resource.

China uses coal

India uses coal

America uses coal

and even Germany has built 10 new coal power stations...and they ALL will continue to do so.

But we can be the smart good guys by simply investing the billions in carbon capture clean coal plants and we have a win/win

...meanwhile ...we can buy TIME and continue to develop new kinds of power technology which actually works and is cost effective (!!) which current renewables don't.

For the UK there should be NO emergency.

This fraud originated with the UN and was perpetrated by opportunistic Western politicians as yet another way to increase their power and raise and spend tax revenues.

...born - again marxist Maurice Strong infested the UN with his 'plan' for humanity at the UN '92 Rio conference scam on Climate.

A grasp of his demented mindset from his 'writings' :

''Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized nations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about?"

He is likely part of the godless, "tech" elite that has plans for all of us "useless eaters" which is depopulation and/or nodal inputs into a transhumanist scheme to reduce humanity to whatever the elites see as fitting, as they try to be and play god. If you read all of their writings and the media manipulation from the 1950s on, you'll see this quite clearly. I highly recommend Jay Dyer's input on this, as he uses the source material from decades past and now to show why people don't understand what is going on, what the plan is, and how AI/futurism is all about transforming humans into something else, with the direction of course being in league with the demonic.

[DT Subscriber]

From The Daily Telegraph.

It seems to be a case of controlled demolition going on, if you can believe Ambrose Evans-Prtichard.

Talk of a Chinese “Lehman Moment” as developer Evergrande collapses with $309bn of debts has obscured the greater danger. Xi Jinping has deliberately precipitated a crunch in China’s encephalitic property sector via his Three Red Lines, deeming a purge necessary to safeguard social order and prevent the further misallocation of resources.

Construction accounts for a quarter of Chinese GDP and half of the world’s diggers, cranes, and cement mixing. It diverts funds from the green, hi-tech, robotics, AI, cloud computing, and advanced semiconductors sectors, where the struggle for superpower mastery is really taking place.

“Beijing’s determination to suppress the whole property sector, not the fallout of Evergrande, is what represents the major near-term risk to China’s growth and financial stability,” said Ting Lu. Land sales were down 64pc in August from a year earlier. They are the leading indicator of the building industry.

You could say that Xi has brought forward a denouement bound to happen because China’s workforce is shrinking by three million a year, marriages have fallen by a third in seven years, household formation has slowed, and rural migration has all but ended.

Buyers will be progressively scarcer, rendering the developer model of pre-selling homes to cover past costs a slow-motion Ponzi scheme.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... hr#comment

[DaKardii]

Oh, no...

https://www.axios.com/trillion-dollar-p ... 181de.html

[Xeraphim1]

DaKardii wrote:

According to Ian M Easton, an expert on Strait of Taiwan weather patterns, there are only two times of the year where the weather permits a successful invasion of Taiwan:

1) March through May
2) September and October

Winter olympics are in Beijing Feb 2 through Feb 20, 2022. So if they decide to invade in October, can't see the olympics happening. Maybe they are fine with that.. but I would think that the stigma of messing up the olympics would weigh upon their decision making. The CCP leaders are all about Power, status and appearance.. Having the olympics in China gives them more status and legitimacy. Maybe they don't care about that.. Maybe they do.
Regards
Jack

While not having the Olympics would be disappointing to China, you and others are missing the big issue: Energy.

China is experiencing power shortages now. If China attempts to invade Taiwan, what do you think one of the first reactions of the US and others will be? Turning off the coal and oil pipelines into China; along with many other resources. Its entirely possible this could be done without any military force needed. Of if it is, a distance blockade far away from China's shores could turn back ships. China's Navy is not very experienced in distant operationsand would have a difficult time projecting force at distance from land based air power.

What will China do when its suffering power shortages every day all across the country? Yes, it is a dictatorship but the CCP stays in power by providing a decent and improving lifestyle to the Chinese people. If they're shivering in the dark, do you think they're going to care about the legal status of Taiwan? Despite propaganda I'll bet that few care now. it's always possible that Xi will overstep or that a combination of events will lead to a very bad situation, but I still believe that the Chinese leadership is very smart about certain subjects and that them staying in power is their primary concern.

[Xeraphim1]

Interesting news from Japan:

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/05/japan- ... panel-says

Japan’s view that its security is “inextricable tied” to Taiwan’s has gone from words to actions, as Tokyo for the first time is participating in exercises to deter Chinese aggression, an expert in Asia-Pacific affairs said Monday.

“Beijing has to make an estimate of U.S. and Japanese will” to defend Taiwan against overt aggression before it could switch its current tactics from psychological coercion, violations of Taiwanese airspace, and putting higher economic barriers on Taipei to an outright invasion, according to Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute.

On a related note, Japan just tested F-35B operations on JS Izumo (DDH-183). While Japan's F-35Bs aren't due until 2022/23, it does now have an operational mini-carrier, I mean Destroyer.

[John]

** 05-Oct-2021 World View: Energy

> While not having the Olympics would be disappointing to China, you
> and others are missing the big issue: Energy.

> China is experiencing power shortages now. If China attempts to
> invade Taiwan, what do you think one of the first reactions of the
> US and others will be? Turning off the coal and oil pipelines into
> China; along with many other resources. Its entirely possible this
> could be done without any military force needed. Of if it is, a
> distance blockade far away from China's shores could turn back
> ships. China's Navy is not very experienced in distant
> operationsand would have a difficult time projecting force at
> distance from land based air power.

> What will China do when its suffering power shortages every day
> all across the country? Yes, it is a dictatorship but the CCP
> stays in power by providing a decent and improving lifestyle to
> the Chinese people. If they're shivering in the dark, do you think
> they're going to care about the legal status of Taiwan? Despite
> propaganda I'll bet that few care now. it's always possible that
> Xi will overstep or that a combination of events will lead to a
> very bad situation, but I still believe that the Chinese
> leadership is very smart about certain subjects and that them
> staying in power is their primary concern.

This is a great analysis, well-reasoned and rational. However, it has
the same major flaw that similar analyses have. The decision to
invade Taiwan will not be well-reasoned and rational. It will be
entirely emotional and desperate.

Suppose there are signs of a protests across the country. Xi Jinping
decides that the invasion of Taiwan must begin right away. He asks
his army general.

His army general says: I'm sorry Your Highness, but we cannot do it
now. The Americans will turn off the coal and oil pipelines.

Lol!

No, the army general would say: "Yes sir! We've stockpiled oil and
coal, and our soldiers are already on their way! We'll be in control
of Taiwan before you can say Jack Robinson!!!"

I've given several examples in the past. WW I began because a 12 year
old high school student decided that it would be fun to shoot an
archduke. WW II started because a Japanese soldier had to pee.

That's how WW III will start. It will not be well-reasoned. It will
be insane.

[DaKardii]

This is a great analysis, well-reasoned and rational. However, it has
the same major flaw that similar analyses have. The decision to
invade Taiwan will not be well-reasoned and rational. It will be
entirely emotional and desperate.

Suppose there are signs of a protests across the country. Xi Jinping
decides that the invasion of Taiwan must begin right away. He asks
his army general.

His army general says: I'm sorry Your Highness, but we cannot do it
now. The Americans will turn off the coal and oil pipelines.

Lol!

No, the army general would say: "Yes sir! We've stockpiled oil and
coal, and our soldiers are already on their way! We'll be in control
of Taiwan before you can say Jack Robinson!!!"

I've given several examples in the past. WW I began because a 12 year
old high school student decided that it would be fun to shoot an
archduke. WW II started because a Japanese soldier had to pee.

That's how WW III will start. It will not be well-reasoned. It will
be insane.

If China ends up in an energy crisis, then we shouldn't expect an attack on Taiwan. We should expect something much, much, MUCH larger.

It will be similar to what Japan did in 1941. After its oil supply was cut off by due to an American embargo, Japan decided to attack Guam, Hawaii, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Wake Island. SIMULTANEOUSLY. This was followed shortly afterward by a second wave of attacks which SIMULTANEOUSLY targeted Australia, East Timor, Indonesia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Sri Lanka. And on another note, these attack waves occurred after Japan had already conquered Cambodia, both Koreas, Laos, Taiwan, Vietnam, about half of Sakhalin Island, and large parts of China, as well as a failed attempt to conquer Mongolia.

[FullMoon]

I'm in agreement with the last 2 posts. Odds are it will be sudden, extreme and unexpected. Which is unfortunate for those of us as yet fully prepared for Chaos.